● Musk Monopoly Play, Cybercap Ramp, FSD 14.2 Ignites Insurance Goldmine

Signals of Cybercap Mass Production Within 6-8 Months, FSD 14.2 Wide Deployment, Vegas Loop Autonomy, Disruptive Model Connected with Insurance, and Musk’s Real Ace Up His Sleeve

This article covers signals of Tesla Cybercap mass production within 6-8 months, the significance of the FSD 14.2 wide release, the removal of safety personnel from Vegas Loop, the impact of combining insurance with data, changes in cost structure due to key card removal, the performance of the Chinese Model YL, and the implications of Grok5’s AGI remarks and industry restructuring.
It outlines how Musk’s real ace up his sleeve (the manufacturing-operation-insurance-data flywheel) will profit, along with key economic and execution checkpoints that are rarely discussed elsewhere.
It also naturally incorporates key SEO keywords such as global economy, inflation, interest rates, the fourth industrial revolution, and AI innovation.

Today’s Key News at a Glance

• FSD 14.2 Wide Deployment has been formalized, with the optimization of driving in congested areas in Mad Max mode being the key point of interest.
• Vegas Loop in Las Vegas has announced plans to achieve full autonomy by eliminating safety personnel within 1-2 months.
• Lemonade accelerates the integration of insurance and data by proposing almost “free” car insurance when using FSD.
• The Cybercap job postings (Quality, Injection Molding, Facilities) signal the establishment of the initial mass production line and a high possibility of transitioning to mass production within 6-8 months.
• Model YL ranked 4th in the Chinese mid-to-large SUV category in its first month, successfully driving demand without a price advantage.
• The default key card provision statement has been removed, simultaneously optimizing cost structure and enhancing the phone key-centric UX.
• xAI’s Grok5 made remarks approaching AGI, intensifying the speed contest in AI innovation.

FSD 14.2 Wide Deployment: Increased Technological Maturity and the Economic Implications of Mad Max Mode

Musk announced on X that FSD 14.2 will be widely deployed.
Accumulated user feedback confirmed that unnecessary lane changes and hard braking have significantly decreased in version 14.1.x, confirming its stability.
It is explained that Mad Max mode is designed to optimize aggressive merging and lane changes during urban driving in peak traffic hours.
The wide deployment represents a phase where data from hundreds of thousands of vehicles is unleashed at once, significantly accelerating the data-model improvement loop.
Economically, improved driving safety lowers insurance loss ratios, and increased subscription conversion rates boost the proportion of software revenue.
The key point is that subscription revenue contributes to cash flow resilience even amid global economic uncertainty and high interest rates.

Vegas Loop Autonomy: Real-World Operational Data that Breaks Through Regulations is the Deal Maker

The goal to eliminate safety personnel in Vegas Loop is a strategy to build a reference for commercial autonomous operation in public environments.
In the controlled environment of a tunnel, it reduces variables and functions as a “regulatory sandbox” by providing empirical data to regulators.
Once the autonomous operation ratio exceeds a certain level, the bargaining power to expand the same stack to road environments increases.
This stage is the most practical bridge to the commercial deployment of a robo-taxi network.

Lemonade’s “Almost Free” Insurance Proposal: Redesigning the Cost Curve Through Data-Insurance Integration

Lemonade revealed a proposal to directly integrate FSD usage data to lower insurance premiums.
The key point is that real-time risk assessment becomes possible via the vehicle’s API, without the hardware required for UBI (Usage-Based Insurance).
Once this structure is established, an incentive is created whereby longer FSD usage results in lower insurance premiums.
From the robo-taxi perspective, insurance premiums per mile will decrease flexibly, lowering the total cost (COGM + operation + insurance) per mile.
Insurance data is again combined with software improvements, creating a flywheel that reduces loss ratios.

Cybercap Job Postings = Signals for Initial Mass Production Line Operation: A 6-8 Month Timeline Guide

Tesla has announced Cybercap-related positions in quality, injection molding, and facilities at the Austin Gigafactory in Texas.
This is interpreted not merely as staffing, but as a signal to form the “backbone of the initial mass production line.”
The Cybertruck exhibited the same pattern about 7 months before its launch, transitioning from pilot production to mass production.
Musk mentioned that the Cybercap line is more akin to an assembly line for consumer electronics than a traditional car factory, and he referenced “unboxed manufacturing” to minimize takt time.
Unboxed manufacturing simultaneously improves lead times and CAPEX efficiency through modular parallel assembly lines, accelerating the rate of unit cost reduction even in an inflationary environment.
Roadmap Guide (Assumption):

• 0-2 months: Set up a pilot line, install facilities, and approve the initial units.
• 2-4 months: Limited pilot production, secure process capability (Cp/Cpk), and establish a quality feedback loop.
• 4-6 months: Ramp-up of initial mass production, stabilization of parts supply, and distribution of service manuals.
• 6-8 months: Full transition to mass production with a sharp monthly increase in production volumes.
  The annual target of 2 million units only makes sense under the premise of line parallelization and high utilization, and bottlenecks may arise early on in injection molding, batteries, or end-of-line (EOL) inspections.

The Economics of the Robo-Taxi Network: It’s Not Sales, but ‘Operating Scale’ that Generates Revenue

With each additional Cybercap, the network’s operational capacity grows, generating recurring revenue per mile.
Since recurring operational revenue is key rather than one-time sales profits, the visibility of long-term cash flows increases even in high interest rate environments.
Key performance indicators (KPIs) include:

• Autonomous driving ratio (disable/intervention ratio).
• Daily paid miles, utilization rate, and turnaround rate per vehicle.
• Total cost per mile (depreciation + energy + insurance + maintenance) vs. revenue per mile.
• FSD subscription attachment rate and regional fare optimization.
  As these indicators improve, network externalities grow, reinforcing a winner-takes-all structure in the mobility platform era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The Performance of China’s Model YL: Driving Demand Without a Price Advantage

Model YL ranked 4th in the Chinese mid-to-large SUV category in its first month, driving initial demand despite its high price.
This signals that the production allocated for GigaShanghai is essentially being depleted by pre-orders.
This can be interpreted as the product strength and OTA software competitiveness compensating for price elasticity even amidst inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.
Achieving a top-tier position in China’s highly competitive EV market is evidence of brand power and supply chain resilience.

Possibility of Default Key Card Exclusion: Transitioning to UX and Cost Optimization

The clause providing two key cards upon vehicle delivery has been removed, accelerating the transition to a phone key-centric UX.
Even small cost savings at the BOM level are significant when scaled up in mass production and contribute to improving the cost structure of lower trim variants.
Demand for valet and emergency use is likely to be absorbed through separate accessory sales.

Grok5’s AGI-Approaching Remarks: The Speed War of AI Innovation and Its Industrial Impact

Musk mentioned that Grok5 might be indistinguishable from AGI, hinting at an acceleration in its development.
If AGI becomes a reality, it could redefine the productivity functions in robotics, manufacturing, finance, and energy, and also impact the global economic structure.
However, if computational resources (compute), data quality, and safety validations are not simultaneously addressed, the expansion rate may be constrained by regulatory and trust risks.

The Key Point Rarely Discussed Elsewhere: Musk’s Real Ace Up His Sleeve is the ‘Manufacturing-Operation-Insurance-Data’ Flywheel

• Manufacturing: Unboxed manufacturing reduces CAPEX and lead times, and line parallelization decreases takt time, making supply more flexible.
• Operations: Instead of sales, building an operational network to generate recurring revenue safeguards cash flow even in high interest rate and economic cycle environments.
• Insurance: Directly linking FSD data with insurance loss ratios lowers insurance premiums per mile and creates a virtuous cycle that increases FSD usage.
• Data: A loop that goes from wide deployment → data explosion → model improvement → increased autonomous ratio → unit cost reduction → enhanced price competitiveness.
• Regulations: Vegas Loop autonomy serves as a gateway to securing regulatory trust through “operational performance” and acts as a lever for citywide expansion.
  When this flywheel interlocks, the overall revenue from the combination of network, software, and insurance soars, surpassing hardware margins.

Investment & Industry Watch Points (Checklist)

• Monitor how much the autonomous operation ratio improves on a quarterly basis in actual commercial settings.
• Observe how quickly the yield and rework rates of the bottleneck processes (injection molding, batteries, EOL) in the Cybercap line stabilize.
• Check the regional FSD subscription attachment rates and the rollout of insurance-linked fare plans.
• Pay attention to how initial demand is secured through city-level partnerships (airports, large event venues, tunnels/dedicated lanes).
• Examine how much CAPEX efficiency and cash generation (software/insurance) can be defended during high interest rate periods.

Risk Map

• Delays in regulatory approvals and accident risks could hinder network expansion.
• Price cuts and changes in subsidy policies by competitors (in China and the US) will test demand elasticity.
• Component inflation and exchange rate fluctuations put pressure on cost structures.
• If exceptions are not handled properly after a large-scale wide deployment, software reliability could suffer.

< Summary >

• FSD 14.2 wide deployment and Vegas Loop autonomy act as the accelerator toward commercial autonomous operations.
• Lemonade’s insurance integration is the key lever to increasing FSD usage and lowering cost per mile.
• Cybercap hiring signals mass production within 6-8 months, and unboxed manufacturing will reshape the supply and cost curve.
• Musk’s real ace up his sleeve is the flywheel that integrates manufacturing, operations, insurance, and data to maximize recurring revenue and network effects.

[Related Articles…]

• The Economics of the Robo-Taxi Network: A Complete Guide to Cost and Revenue Structure per Mile
• The Impact of Unboxed Manufacturing Innovation on the Automotive Industry in 2025

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 6개월 후 사이버캡 양산? FSD 14.2 + 테슬라 채용 공고… 머스크의 진짜 승부수는 ?

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● Tesla’s FSD Frenzy, CyberCab Production Surge, Supercharger Powerplay

Tesla FSD v14.1.3 Rampant Update, ‘Cybercap’ Mass Production Signal, Roadster Unveiling Imminent: A Comprehensive Overview from Robo-Taxi Economics to Infrastructure Momentum

This article covers the abnormally rapid update cycle of the FSD v14 series, signs of Cybercap (robo-taxi) mass production, the production flow at Gigafactory Texas, key insights from Franz (Chief Designer)’s podcast, and the strategic value of the Supercharger network.
Notably, we have separately summarized the topics of the “true variables for robo-taxi profitability” and the “maturity of the AI pipeline implied by shortened update cycles,” which are rarely addressed elsewhere.

1) FSD v14.1.3: Shortened Update Cycles and Tangible Performance Gains

Following the transition to version 14, consecutive deployments have been occurring at intervals of 4–5 days, and version 14.1.2 confirmed ‘Mad Max’-level improvements in response speed and object detection.
Based on tester videos, unconventional obstacles such as steam columns are recognized immediately, and the system performs bold yet safe lane changes after calculating available space, taking into account whether there is a van in the adjacent lane.
A case of prolonged disengaged driving was revealed in Manhattan, New York, showcasing the maturity of the camera-plus-neural network approach, and some local community trackers even observed an initial 100% disengagement rate.
Version 14.1.3 has been distributed widely beyond the initial list, reaching users in various regions including Florida, reflecting a rapid spread.
The key point is not frequent/small updates but rather frequent/major improvements, with each update accompanied by a noticeable performance jump.

2) Observation of New Features: On-Site Adaptability in Interpreting Traffic Signals, Rerouting, and Parking Decisions

According to tester Chuck Cook’s video, the FSD judged the initial parking spot on the roadside as unsuitable and autonomously selected a better location.
This suggests an enhanced “goal re-setting capability” that allows the system to autonomously learn, assess, and adjust its route—for example, when encountering a blocked driveway.
Moreover, scenes were captured where the system interpreted traffic signals in temporary road closures and rerouted from the original path.
This signifies that beyond simple signal recognition, a “situational adaptive policy” that reconstructs the route plan in real time by considering on-site constraints is being deployed in more scenarios.

3) Cybercap (Robo-Taxi) Mass Production Signal: Recruitment, Sightings, and Production Readiness

Recruitment of technologies and engineers related to Cybercap has been observed again, increasing the likelihood of entering the mass production phase.
Multiple Cybercap prototypes were sighted near the collision test facility at Gigafactory Texas, hinting that the process is approaching the later stages of certification, durability, and safety validation.
At the same time, a drone video explanation shared that the Model Y production line is operating at a steady pace, with optimization of production efficiency taking place concurrently.
The fact that autonomous driving enhancements and vehicle hardware mass production preparations are progressing on the same timeline provides an indication of the speed at which the transition to “mobility as a service” is occurring.

4) Key Takeaways from the Franz von Holzhausen Podcast: Roadster, Design Philosophy, and Core Focus

There was mention that the unveiling/demonstration event for the new Roadster is scheduled for later this year or within 2025, and hints at exclusive paint options suggested product differentiation.
Autonomous driving and robotics are seen as extensions of Tesla’s mission, reaffirming confidence in the eventual elimination of the need for human drivers.
Cybercap adopts a “fleet-oriented design” with features such as high usage frequency, easy cleaning, durable materials reminiscent of a café, and optimized aerodynamic efficiency.
It was confirmed that while the design remains fundamentally similar to the initial reveal, it undergoes improvements that enhance its overall finish.

5) Infrastructure Momentum: The Dominant Market Share and Significance of the Supercharger Network

Data for Q3 in the U.S. has shown that Tesla’s charging network has captured a higher market share than the combined share of other major providers.
Despite issues regarding reductions in the Supercharger team, prevailing interpretation suggests that the “momentum erosion” in terms of overall network capacity and operational rate is minimal.
Considering that the bottlenecks in the robo-taxi era are “charging, maintenance, and cleaning,” having an edge in infrastructure directly translates to superior service uptime and profitability.

6) Economic and Market Impact: Interest Rate/Inflation Environment and Tesla’s “Software Margin”

In an environment of high interest rates and inflation, the demand in the electric vehicle market becomes more price-elastic, and hardware margins tend to be under pressure.
Tesla is increasing its defenses against downward cycles by expanding the share of “software and fleet revenue,” including from FSD subscriptions and robo-taxi sales.
Shortened update cycles indicate the maturity of the automation in the learning data, computing, and deployment pipeline, which in turn enhances the speed of feature releases and the potential for ARPU improvements.
The Supercharger advantage contributes to reducing Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and improving customer Lifetime Value (LTV), thereby cementing Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantages in the shift to mobility as a service.
Amidst global economic uncertainties, structural growth in AI trends and the electric vehicle market continues, and Tesla is transitioning its valuation framework from “hardware to platform.”

7) Risk Checks: Regulations, Insurance, Safety Data, and Competitive Landscape

The critical variables for the commercialization of robo-taxi services include securing regional regulatory approvals, establishing liability/insurance frameworks, and achieving consistent superiority in safety statistics.
The speed of securing regional licenses in competition with companies like Waymo and Cruise, their accident response and recall policies, and the transparency of data disclosure are key points to watch.
On the macro level, the timing of interest rate peak-outs, the path of inflation, and changes in consumer purchasing power affect the electric vehicle purchase conversion rate and the market share of subscription-based software.

8) 30–90 Day Checklist

Monitor the pace of additional minor updates in the FSD v14 series and the extent of tangible performance gains.
Keep an eye on the frequency of recruitment, prototype sightings, and clues regarding progress in the certification process related to Cybercap.
Check the Supercharger expansion/operating rate metrics, progress on other companies opening up (NACS), and any interoperability issues.
Watch for the Roadster unveiling event schedule, product differentiation highlights, and the production commencement timeline.

Summary of “Key Points” Often Overlooked Elsewhere

Shortened update cycles signal that the automation of the data→learning→validation→deployment pipeline has matured, which not only improves model quality but also enhances efficiency in cost, speed, and risk management.
Cybercap’s design, focusing on material, durability, and easy cleaning, is based on a TCO design philosophy aimed at maximizing “uptime × turnover” rather than per-vehicle profitability, which is the true lever for robo-taxi profitability.
The Supercharger advantage is not about the quantity of charging infrastructure but rather qualitative metrics such as “waiting time, failure rates, and optimized locations,” which create a significant differentiation and determine fleet operating rates and service NPS.
Although hardware margins are under pressure in a high-interest environment, as the share of subscription-based FSD/robo-taxi revenue increases, cycle sensitivity decreases and there is greater potential for multiple expansion.

SpaceX Implications: Execution Speed Outpaces the Narrative

SpaceX’s overwhelming number of launches is a prime example of how a “learning speed gap” can reshape industry structures.
If Tesla displays a similar pattern in autonomous driving software, its valuation framework could shift from the electric vehicle market to the mobility platform market.
From an investment standpoint, it makes more sense to track the speed of performance and data accumulation rather than focus on controversies.

< Summary >

• FSD v14.1.3 indicates the maturity of the AI pipeline through rapid deployments at 4–5 day intervals and noticeable performance improvements.
• On-site adaptability in interpreting traffic signals, rerouting, and autonomous parking decisions has been enhanced, and the scope of mass adoption is broadening.
• Signals of Cybercap mass production are being reinforced through recruitment and sightings, and the fleet-oriented design philosophy provides the key lever for robo-taxi profitability.
• The Supercharger network advantage alleviates bottlenecks in robo-taxi uptime, enhancing service competitiveness.
• Even in a high-interest, inflationary environment, the expansion of software and fleet revenue contributes to both valuation defense and expansion.

[Related Articles…]

• Robo-Taxi Economics: One-Page Summary of Key Profitability Variables
• The Strategic Value of the Supercharger Network and the Expansion of Mobility Platforms

*Source: [ 허니잼의 테슬라와 일론 ]

– 테슬라 ‘사이버캡’ 양산 임박! 자율주행 단 5일만에 또 업데이트, 로드스터 올해 공개!

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● Shadow Liquidity Timebomb

2025 Financial Crisis? The Illusion of a Stock Boom, a Stagflation Scenario, and the Shadow of an AI Bubble

This article contains three core elements.
First, it summarizes in a news format the debate between the view that “the financial crisis is already underway” versus “it is not a financial crisis by definition.”
Second, it outlines scenarios showing how real triggers such as Trump’s tariffs, the ECB’s TPI, and the liquidity pipeline can shake the global economic outlook.
Third, it separately details decisive points rarely covered elsewhere, such as “shadow liquidity,” “AI infrastructure capex and power bottlenecks,” and the “interaction between the Treasury’s issuance strategy and interest rates.”

[News Briefing] Key Issue Summary

• Issue 1: The view that “the financial crisis is already underway” was put forward.
• The argument is based on the notion that the boom in the stock market and virtual assets creates an illusion of liquidity, which could rapidly lead to a credit contraction when reversed.
• Triggers include the rekindling of Trump’s tariff wars, European fiscal instability, and excessive valuations.
• Issue 2: The counterargument points out that the term “financial crisis” already has a set definition, so arbitrary expansion can cause confusion.
• It also emphasizes the possibility of policy responses.
• The Federal Reserve and fiscal authorities possess means to “dodge” the risks, and are expected to act to curb the transfer into a crisis.
• European issue: The ECB’s TPI (Transmission Protection Instrument) is mentioned as a straightforward shield that can control stress in the bonds of specific countries like France.
• The concluding disagreement centers on whether to label the situation as a “financial crisis” or to distinguish it as “financial instability” or a new concept.

Why the Debate Over Terminology and Definitions Matters

• A financial crisis typically refers to the phase when a systemic banking crisis spills over into the real economy.
• Two consecutive quarters of negative growth are a traditional signal of a recession, but are not immediately equated with a financial crisis.
• However, when a recession is accompanied by credit destruction, it frequently coincides with a financial crisis.
• Using precise terminology reduces policy and communication confusion, and enhances market trust.
• In practice, it is pragmatic to monitor signals quantitatively, assuming a spectrum between “financial instability” and a “systemic crisis.”

Why the Market Appears ‘Fine’ Right Now

• Rising asset prices enhance the sense of liquidity through wealth effects and leverage capacity.
• Positions in virtual assets and the options market, coupled with ETF creation/redemption, create a loop of shadow liquidity.
• While AI big tech boosts index weightings, the narrative bias may distort the perception of strength.
• Inflation shows a coexistence of a deceleration phase and the risk of re-acceleration.
• Gradual upward pressures remain in energy, tariffs, and rents.
• A strengthening dollar acts as a liquidity absorber for overseas, subtly straining emerging markets, commodities, and credit.

Risk Trigger Map

• Tariff Shock: A broad tariff hike can stimulate import prices, triggering re-acceleration of inflation and a stronger dollar.
• Interest Rates and Bonds: A sharp rise in the term premium of long-term rates may prompt valuation adjustments.
• Europe: Fiscal issues in France and Italy, sluggish growth, and stagnation in German manufacturing could amplify stress across markets.
• However, TPI might serve to “buy time” by curbing a sudden spike in spreads.
• Japan: Complete normalization of YCC and reduced yen carry trades could increase the funding costs for global risk assets.
• China: The long tail of deleveraging in real estate could shake global demand and bulk material prices.
• U.S. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) rollover: Along with exposures from regional banks, this area represents a potential credit event zone.
• Energy: Geopolitical and supply disruptions could reignite headline inflation.

Three Policy Scenarios

• Soft Landing (Medium Probability): Gradual decline in prices amid slowing growth, slow rate cuts, and a strong-to-steady dollar.
• Stocks may be supported by quality companies although profit growth remains limited.
• Stagflation Pivot (Medium Probability): If the Fed eases due to concerns over slowing growth, persistent high inflation may result with volatile real interest rates.
• In this case, value and repricing trades, real assets, and TIPS gain a relative advantage.
• Hard Landing/Credit Crunch (Low but Not Negligible): Should systemic stress lead to a credit freeze, policies would intervene strongly and retroactively.
• Initially, there may be a combination of dollar strength, widening credit spreads, and delayed stock valuation adjustments.

Investment and Corporate Checklist

• Liquidity Monitor: Track the Fed’s balance sheet and the pace of QT, RRP balances, Treasury cash (TGA), bank loans (H.8), SLOOS, high-yield and CDS spreads.
• Interest Rates and Dollar: Monitor real interest rates, the spread between long and short-term rates, and the DXY to gauge global capital flows.
• Portfolio: Manage duration with short-term bonds and cash equivalents, and build a core portfolio of stocks with robust quality earnings and cash flow.
• Risk Hedge: Predefine budgets for put spreads and tail hedges, and hold non-correlated assets like gold and bitcoin in proportions that can tolerate volatility.
• Corporate Finance: Review maturity ladders, examine the mix of fixed and variable rates, hedge dollar exposures, and mitigate tariff and exchange rate risks through diversified supply chains.

Impact of the AI Trend on the Economic Cycle

• AI infrastructure capex is likely to maintain strong momentum even in 2025.
• This includes investments in data centers, power grids, cooling systems, and substation facilities.
• Power bottlenecks are a critical constraint that could determine the speed of AI adoption.
• Increases in electricity costs may create a downward rigidity in service prices and inflation.
• The commercialization of models and agents is reshaping software margin structures, and AI efficiencies might partially offset service inflation.
• While beneficiaries extend to semiconductors, power equipment, cloud, and edge devices, caution is needed regarding short-term overvaluation signals.
• In summary, AI acts as a dual variable by supporting the investment cycle while influencing the inflation path through power and capital costs.

The Most Critical Content Exclusively Revealed in This Article

• Shadow Liquidity Loop: There is a mechanism where the interaction of options gamma, ETF creation, and stablecoin reserves bolsters perceived liquidity.
• If this loop reverses, liquidity could drop as sharply as the credit multiplier increases.
• Political Timing of the ECB’s TPI: TPI, being a “conditional” tool, may offer varying degrees of support depending on election cycles, budget timing, and regulatory compliance.
• This factor creates jump risks for European spreads.
• Treasury Issuance Mix vs. Interest Rates: An expansion in short-term issuance absorbs RRP, releasing market liquidity, while an increase in long-term issuance pushes up the term premium, burdening valuations.
• AI Capex as a Buffer for the Economy: Even in phases of economic slowdown, AI infrastructure investment could raise the “floor” of the investment cycle. However, if power bottlenecks are not resolved, investment efficiency may plummet.
• Illusion of the Index Versus the Reality of Earnings: While a select few large AI beneficiaries maintain solid earnings, without broad-based profit improvements, the durability of the index’s strength is questionable.

Actionable Observation Points (Calendar)

• Prices and Growth: CPI, PCE, wage indicators, ISM/PMI, employment reports, NFIB, and corporate NIPA earnings.
• Credit: Monitor high-yield and IG spreads, bank loan loss provisions, and CRE delinquency rates.
• Liquidity: Watch for meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BOJ, QT/QE changes, RRP/TGA balances, and Japanese capital inflows/outflows.
• Global: Track Eurozone fiscal and election schedules, updates on tariff policy pledges, and China’s TSF and real estate policies.
• Technology and AI: Monitor data center power expansion plans, electricity rate trends, GPU supply and lead times, and changes in AI cost/price policies of major cloud providers.

Conclusion

• While there is not yet a clear signal of a “100% financial crisis,” it is evident that minor cracks are accumulating.
• Policies have the capacity to circumvent issues, albeit at the cost of potential re-emergence of inflation and dollar strength.
• For investments and management, a proactive strategy focused on liquidity indicators and a quality-centric defensive offensive is prudent.
• AI should be regarded as a “dual variable” that simultaneously cushions the downturn and contributes to upward inflationary pressures.

< Summary >

• The apparent boom in the market is a blend of an illusion of liquidity and narrative concentration.
• Although policy circumvention is possible, it comes at the cost of potential inflation and a resurgent dollar.
• The triggers are tariffs, long-term interest rates, European fiscal issues, Japan’s YCC, China’s real estate, and CRE.
• Use checklists to continuously monitor liquidity, credit, the dollar, and interest rates.
• AI capex and power bottlenecks are key variables shaping the economic and inflation trajectories in 2025.

[Related Articles…]

• Five Investment Strategies for a Stagflation Era
• The AI Semiconductor Cycle and the Outlook for Global Interest Rates

This article systematically organizes the latest trends in global economic outlook, interest rates, inflation, recession, and the dollar, focusing on key keywords.
Each section is structured with SEO in mind, and it connects practical checklists with AI trends for immediate application.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– “전문가들이 틀렸어요” 이미 진행 중인 금융위기, 주식시장 호황은 착시다 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 최용식 소장 2편

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