● Orchestrated Job Slump, Fed Cuts, Debasement-Fueled Liquidity Boom

Trump’s ‘Planned Employment Recession’ Hypothesis: A Political Economy Instant Analysis for Rate Cuts, End of Quantitative Tightening, and Liquidity Rally

This article contains the three ‘policy’ causes of employment slowdown, the FOMC’s shift in dual mandate focus, the debasement and asset inflation mechanism, the liquidity spillover that even connects to AI and stablecoins, and all the overlooked key points by other media.
It neatly organizes policies and markets into one framework so that you can immediately apply an investment checklist.

One-Page News Summary

US unemployment has recently risen to around 4.3%, and both wage growth and nonfarm employment increases have decelerated.
The extended federal government shutdown has delayed the release of employment statistics, and the reduction in non-defense spending further cools the economy.
The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in nine months, and the market is increasingly pricing in further rate cuts every time there is a weak employment surprise.
This trend provides justification for liquidity re-expansion and an end to quantitative tightening (QT), stimulating a flow of funds into risk assets.
Key keywords summarized are rate cuts, disinflation, FOMC, end of QT, and liquidity rally.

The Three Major Policy Factors Behind the Employment Slowdown (Driven by ‘Policy’ Rather Than the Business Cycle)

1) Tariff Policy → Reduced Corporate Labor Demand

• Tariffs imposed on importers shrink profit margins, increasing the pressure to cut labor costs in durable goods, machinery, transportation equipment, and automobiles.
• Margin compression → hiring reduction → expansion of the employment gap spreads across industries.

2) Decline in Immigration → Restriction of Labor Supply

• A sharp drop in net immigration signifies a structural supply contraction, accompanied by shortages in certain skilled areas.
• The Trump administration’s immigration restrictions accelerated the originally gradual decline, doubly constraining the labor supply.

3) Government Streamlining/Shutdown → Reduction of Federal Employees

• The shutdown, together with reduced non-defense spending, cools public sector employment and amplifies uncertainty through delayed data releases.
• The administration uses shutdowns as a tool for restructuring, causing further weakening of employment statistics.

In conclusion, the recent employment slowdown should be interpreted as a composite result of three ‘policy variables’—tariffs, immigration, and government streamlining—rather than just a sign of economic downturn.

‘Planned Employment Recession’ Hypothesis: Why It Was Necessary

Justification for Rate Cuts

• Weaker employment indicators lead the market to price in faster rate cuts.
• This alleviates high interest cost burdens and improves the conditions for fiscal financing (issuance of government bonds).

Justification for Ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Expanding Liquidity

• Rising unemployment and slowing wage growth are interpreted as signals of disinflation, strengthening the justification for ending QT and expanding liquidity.
• Consequently, an expansion in M2 triggers a re-rating across the asset market.

Debasement Strategy

• Liquidity expansion lowers the ‘value of money’ and, in relative terms, boosts the sticker prices of gold, stocks, housing, and digital assets.
• The broad ‘wealth effect’ operates on voter sentiment, aligning with strategies for midterm elections.

Cautions

• This interpretation is a political-economic hypothesis, and central bank policy independence is institutionally guaranteed.
• However, the key point is that the policy mix is ultimately creating conditions for rate cuts and liquidity expansion.

FOMC Perspective: A Shift in the Focus of the Dual Mandate

Key Points from the Jackson Hole Speech

• The message confirmed that the ‘risk balance’ has shifted from price stability to employment stability.
• Signals of easing employment help lower inflation expectations and strengthen the justification for rate cuts.

Market Reaction Function

• If employment is weaker than expected, rate futures immediately reflect more cuts.
• In a data-dependent regime, the path from ‘weaker employment → stronger cut trajectory’ is the most intuitive reaction.

Framing of the Policy Path

• The pace of cuts requires simultaneous confirmation of prices and employment, but if a shutdown creates a data gap, volatility in Fed communication may increase.
• Signals of QT easing or ending can contribute to stabilizing long-term rates and improving government bond demand.

Key Points Overlooked by Other Media

• The fact that employment is cooling due to three ‘policy variables’ (tariffs, immigration, government streamlining) rather than economic factors.
• That employment weakness is managed to remain within a ‘justification zone’ rather than reaching a ‘risk threshold.’
• Shutdowns serve not only as a means of reducing fiscal spending but also as a lever for communication through ‘data gaps,’ adjusting market expectations.
• The justification for ending QT is directly linked to the political-economic cost function of easing government bond interest burdens, not just disinflation.
• Debasement should be interpreted not as simple monetary expansion but as managing a ‘wealth effect strategy’ aimed at election strategies.

Asset Market Impact Map (The Outcome of the Liquidity Rally)

Bonds

• Expectations of rate cuts and signals of QT easing support lower long-term rates.
• However, if the risk of re-ignited inflation emerges, volatility could increase.

Stocks

• Multiples expansion could restart for liquidity-sensitive sectors and mega-cap stocks.
• Policy-sensitive sectors (automobiles, machinery, transportation) are very responsive to tariff and supply chain factors.

Gold, Commodities, and Housing

• The debasement environment increases the appeal of physical hedge assets like gold and silver.
• A drop in mortgage rates increases the likelihood of a housing market recovery, which could lead to a rebound in construction demand.

Digital Assets and Stablecoins

• Liquidity expansion is favorable to digital assets, and an increase in the circulation of stablecoins boosts the rotation of funds into risk assets.
• Timing with regulatory events remains crucial.

The Intersection of AI Trends with Labor and Liquidity

• Slower wage growth and lower rates are favorable for AI infrastructure CAPEX (data centers, power, GPUs).
• The adoption of AI can enhance labor productivity, relieving wage inflation pressures and helping protect corporate margins, thereby moderating the pace of employment adjustments.
• If the liquidity rally restarts, there may be an increased tilt towards AI platforms, cloud services, and semiconductors (memory, HPC).
• Conversely, a rebound in long-term rates or worsening bottlenecks in power and components could temporarily dampen the AI momentum.

Risk and Counterargument Checks

• Reignition of inflation: A rebound in rents and energy could, following an early rate cut, stimulate inflation.
• Tail risks of a sharp rise in unemployment: Excessive policy measures might push the employment slowdown beyond a ‘manageable level.’
• Fiscal deficits and government bond supply: Large-scale issuance could increase upward pressure on long-term rates and raise concerns about Fed independence.
• External factors: A slowdown in the European economy, weakened demand from China, and geopolitical risks could affect the pathways of the dollar and commodity markets.
• Limitations of the hypothesis: The term ‘planned’ is a political-economic interpretation, and the analysis is based on consistency rather than definitive evidence.

Ready-to-Use Data and Schedule Checklist

• Employment: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth (month-over-month and year-over-year), initial jobless claims.
• Prices: CPI, PCE headline/core indices, housing costs, and service price spreads.
• FOMC: Dot plots, minutes, wording in official statements, pace of QT, and guidance on maturity reinvestment.
• Fiscal and Bonds: Monthly fiscal balance, auction tails, foreign demand, TGA balance.
• Liquidity: Changes in M2, reverse repo and reserves, and net flows in stablecoin market capitalization.

< Summary >

• The recent employment slowdown is more reasonably viewed as the result of three policy factors (tariffs, immigration, government streamlining/shutdown) rather than a sign of economic downturn.
• This trend creates the justification for rate cuts and ending QT while linking to debasement that lifts asset prices through liquidity expansion.
• The FOMC places weight on employment stability and is reviewing the cutting path under a data-dependent regime.
• Although the liquidity rally is favorable for bonds, mega-caps, AI infrastructure, and physical hedge assets, risks from reignited inflation, government bond supply, and external factors persist.
• While the ‘planned employment recession’ remains a political-economic hypothesis, understanding the policy-market connection clarifies asset allocation direction for 2025-2026.

[Related Articles…]

Liquidity Cycle Restart: Winners and Losers in a Rate Cut Phase
Stablecoins and Debasement: The Direction of Digital Liquidity in 2026

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 트럼프가 고용침체를 ‘계획’한 이유 : 유동성 랠리를 이어가기 위한 중간선거 전략(금리인하와 양적긴축 종료의 당위성 마련) [즉시분석]

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● Middle-Class Meltdown

In the AI Era, ‘Human Proof’ and ‘Experiential Extravagance’ Will Transform the Korean Economy at a Glance: The Essential Report

AI is displacing the “middle”, Buddhism and traditional culture are returning as the code of Generation Z, and self-employment is shifting from ownership-based sales to experience-based sales.
The era of solo-preneurs is at its peak, education curriculums are reaching their limits, the debate over universal basic income is intensifying, and even the ‘view’ premium in real estate is connected to investment and entrepreneurship strategies.
This article contains: 1) an irreplaceable skill map for the AI era, 2) a redesign of self-employment suited to experiential extravagance, 3) the expansion of consumption, tourism, and IP based on the Buddhist (Zen) code, 4) signals that ‘views’ are redefining residential and retail spaces.
Based on filming information. (Filmed: October 15, 2025).

Today’s Key News Briefing

• In the AI era, the skills companies desire start with top-level technical competence, followed by uniquely human capabilities such as creativity, learning agility, and adaptability.
• ‘Middle tasks’ are being rapidly replaced, deepening polarization in a K-shaped labor market that leaves only high-skilled professionals and some blue-collar roles.
• We are shifting from an era of employment to one of entrepreneurship and solo-preneurship, with AI tools providing productivity leverage that allows one person to work like a team.
• Self-employment is moving from ownership-based sales to experience-based sales, and industries centered on alcohol consumption or that have online substitutes are facing inevitable restructuring.
• Buddhism, Zen, meditation, and traditional culture are emerging as cultural codes for Generation Z, sparking expansion in offline exhibitions, temple stays, and merchandise markets.
• Education is confronting the limitations of industrialized curriculums, with growing demand for ‘human proof’ capabilities based on philosophy and the humanities as well as for project-based learning.
• The debate over universal basic income faces challenges due to the paradox of funding and support, with welfare increasingly focusing on ‘basic livelihood’ and the expansion of opportunities seen as an individual responsibility.
• In real estate, factors such as ‘views, scenery, and experiential accessibility’ are rapidly emerging as key pillars of asset value.
• Consumption is shifting toward pragmatism, and trends of avoiding dating and marriage are altering political and consumption structures.

Major Transformation in the Labor Market: The ‘Middle’ Displaced by AI and Irreplaceable Skills

AI initially replaces tasks that are rule-based, repetitive, and predictable.
Companies now prioritize technical application skills, an understanding of data and AI, and the ability to collaborate in automation.
Following that, creativity, learning agility, problem definition, critical thinking, and adaptability are key.
In summary, discard “what machines do well” and bet on “what only humans can do.”
Portfolios and case studies of problem-solving are proving more persuasive than resume specs in recruitment, collaboration, and project acquisition.

The Era of Entrepreneurship and Solo-preneurship: How One Person Can Work Like a Team

The primary risk in entrepreneurship—high fixed costs (personnel, equity dilution, office space)—has been significantly reduced by AI tools.
By linking planning, finance, development, design, and marketing into a pipeline, one individual can quickly launch an MVP.
Entrepreneurs with around ten years of practical experience find the balance between success probability and limited losses most favorable.
The strategy is “start small, learn fast, and pivot often.”
Keeping fixed costs extremely low until product-market fit is achieved is key to survival.

Resetting Self-Employment: From Ownership to Experience, a Signal for Restructuring

For categories where online sales dominate, boldly abandon them and reinforce the unique experiences that only offline can provide.
Reduced company gatherings and a decline in alcohol consumption are warning signs for alcohol-centered industries.
The three elements of experience design are context (story), sensory stimulation (the five senses), and community (encouraging repeat visits).
Merchandise should be designed as a “memory device of the experience” to sell well.
International book fairs, traditional culture events, and pop-ups all tap into the desire to recover an “analog texture.”

The Return of Cultural Codes: The Economics of Buddhism (Zen), Meditation, and Traditional Culture

Buddhism is embraced by people in their teens and twenties as a culture due to its openness, inclusiveness, and accessibility.
The Zen and mindfulness codes also connect with Silicon Valley culture, favoring global expansion.
Institutions like the National Museum, “rooms for contemplation,” and merchandise with traditional motifs are establishing themselves as the “local luxury” of K-culture.
Temple stays, exhibitions, and festivals become magnets for demand, simultaneously boosting local tourism and commercial districts.
When combined with cultural IP development, licensing, and the fusion of spatial and experiential design, high-margin businesses become possible.

Educational Transformation: The Limitations of Industrialized Curriculums and ‘Human Proof’

Standardized and homogenized education has produced work that machines excel at, increasing the risk of replacement.
Now, the ability to define problems, construct narratives, lead collaborations, and express oneself through writing, coding, and data is crucial.
The revival of philosophy and humanities reading stems from their role in establishing identity, value judgment, and ethics as the foundation of ‘human proof.’
While curated content lowers entry barriers, true differentiation comes from deep engagement with original texts.

Policy and Welfare: The Reality of the Universal Basic Income Debate

Large-scale automation weakens the income security of the middle class, fueling discussions on universal basic income, regressive preservation, and retraining support.
However, the paradox between funding and political support (after all, one might eventually become high-income) makes implementation challenging.
It is necessary for the government to focus on basic livelihood and retraining infrastructure, while individuals accept responsibility for expanding opportunities.

Real Estate: How ‘Views’ and Experiential Accessibility Redefine Prices

Viewing angles, natural light, greenery, proximity to water, and cultural accessibility are emerging as the core factors in asset valuation.
Even in the same location, differences in views, noise, circulation, and design of common areas can lead to variations in resale value.
For retail and commercial spaces, dwell time, photo opportunities, and layout grids now explain rental rates.

Consumption and Politics: Pragmatism and the Economics of Non-Romance

Price sensitivity is increasing, and consumers open their wallets only for “true value.”
Delays in dating and marriage have increased the share of spending on housing, leisure, and self-development, while also shifting policy preferences.
Luxury is transitioning from ownership to experience, with offline experiential consumption becoming a status symbol over luxury goods or imported cars.

Investment Insights: Which Areas to Watch Amid Interest Rates, Inflation, and Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Begin by establishing the macro framework (constant monitoring of global economic trends, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and stock market variables).

• Potential winners: experiential retail, exhibitions, performances, thematic spaces, cultural IP and licensing, meditation and wellness, AI tools and entrepreneurship infrastructure, and residential/retail properties with view premiums.
• Structural challenges: offline sales sectors that have been completely replaced by online channels, alcohol-centered dining, retail with excess space, and ownership-oriented luxury.
• Checkpoints: experience KPIs such as dwell time, repeat visit rates, and UGC production; location selection based on lifestyle data; and flexible clauses in lease contracts.
• From a stock market perspective: focus on sectors themed around experiential extravagance (performances, exhibitions, leisure, retail platforms), cultural IP holders, AI-enabled entrepreneurship infrastructure (SaaS, generative AI tools), and retail REITs with an increasing proportion of experiential components.

Something Truly Core That Is Rarely Mentioned Elsewhere

• The Buddhist and Zen code is not a religion but rather a “protocol of inclusive culture,” making it a local luxury IP with global potential.
• As digitalization becomes universal, analog experiences become scarcer, enhancing their premium. There is structural demand for experiential retail and tourism REITs.
• The surge in productivity among solo-preneurs distorts employment statistics. Even if nominal employment remains stagnant, the added value created could disrupt tax and pension systems.
• The “depth gap” in education is translating into an asset gap. Households that begin with curated content yet secure depth through engagement with original texts and projects will have an advantage.

Action Guide: 7 Things to Do Immediately This Week

1) Identify three tasks in your work that machines perform better and immediately automate or eliminate them.
2) Organize your portfolio page as a case study outlining problem definition, the process of solving the issue, and the results.
3) Use AI tools to list MVP feature requirements and launch a prototype within two weeks.
4) If you have a store or space, add three sensory elements that increase dwell time by 20%.
5) Check the local calendar for exhibitions and traditional culture events, and plan collaborative merchandise or pop-ups.
6) Incorporate a ‘view and experiential accessibility’ checklist as a standard part of residential and commercial decision-making.
7) Choose one piece of philosophical or humanities original text each month and publicly share your reading notes (to build credibility as an asset).

< Summary >

The AI era is a battleground where the integration of technology, creativity, and learning agility—what we call ‘human proof’—is the decisive factor.
Entrepreneurship and solo-preneurship are more favorable than traditional employment, and self-employment must be redesigned to prioritize experience-based sales.
Buddhism, Zen, and traditional culture are expanding as local luxury IP, while analog experiences are driving premium values.
In real estate, ‘views and experiential accessibility’ are emerging as key determinants of value.
Amid global economic shifts and the fluctuations of interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates, the stock market presents significant opportunities in experiential extravagance, cultural IP, and AI infrastructure.

[Related Articles…]

• Experiential Extravagance Era: Offline Experiences Replace Luxury
• How Solo-preneurs Are Changing Employment, Tax, and Investment Maps

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 나는 절로? 절에서 소개팅을 하는 이유(ft. 김용섭 작가 2부)

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● France Debt Timebomb, Protests Explode Across Europe, Next Targets UK-Italy

France’s Fiscal Warning Lights Turned On: 116.5% National Debt · Spread of European Protests, Next Shock Likely ‘UK · Italy’

Key Points Covered in This Article

The article outlines the background behind France’s national debt surging from 98.1% before the pandemic to 116.5% this year and discusses future scenarios.
It connects the trend of protests across Europe with simultaneous protests by Madagascar’s Generation Z, outlining the common denominator of global risks.
The next shock points are pinpointed as the ‘local governments in the UK and Italy’s finances’ with supporting data and structural factors presented.
The investment strategy is summarized as a portfolio checklist reflecting interest rates, exchange rates, bond spreads, and inflation cycles.
In a fiscal tightening environment, specific public sector AI trends and their practical applications are proposed as methods to boost real growth rates without cutting spending.

European News Briefing: Why Has France’s Sense That ‘Life Has Become Harsh’ Grown So Apart?

France’s government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to jump from 98.1% in 2019 to 116.5% this year.
With delays in reducing fiscal deficits, structurally rising expenditures on pensions and healthcare due to an aging population are evident.
The number of people for whom living without government spending has become unmanageable is increasing, leading to frequent protests.
Even though the slowdown in essential goods prices is moderate, the perception of high inflation remains because the relative prices of food, housing, and energy are still high.
Rigid labor markets and high social security contributions restrict private employment expansion, limiting the perceived benefit of wage increases.
Consequently, a fiscal structure has emerged where “growth is slow, but expenses have become fixed costs,” leading to a vicious cycle of social discontent.

Market Data Check: France’s Funding Conditions and Credit Signals

The yield on France’s 10-year government bond (OAT) repeatedly shows an expanding spread compared to the German Bund.
Credit rating agencies have warned of a risk that France may deviate from fiscal rules in 2024, and further burdens are expected if fiscal reforms are delayed.
The contractionary real interest rate environment in the Eurozone increases rollover costs, eroding future revenues.
Ultimately, this situation calls for simultaneous structural adjustments in spending, revenue increases, and the redesign of growth drivers.
For global investors, monitoring the OAT–Bund spread, French CDS, and the weakness of the euro are key indicators.

Next Shock Point: Why ‘the UK and Italy’ Inevitable?

In the UK, even if the central government holds strong, local government finances remain weak, and the accumulation of increased welfare demands and public service backlogs is significant.
The combination of mortgage refinancing and rising rents adds substantial pressure on households’ perceptions of their financial well-being.
For Italy, prolonged periods of high interest rates can exacerbate the sensitivity of its debt ratio.
If growth remains locked at potential levels, a renewed widening of government bond spreads could be triggered, and banks’ exposure to government bonds may escalate into systemic financial risks.
Both countries are likely to see repeated news of “overestimated revenues and difficulties in cutting expenditures” during political cycles and budget formulation processes.

Madagascar Generation Z Protests: ‘Livelihood and Opportunity’ Issues Spreading Across the Island

In Madagascar, protests led by Generation Z have spread across the island.
A combination of skyrocketing food and fuel prices, youth unemployment, and a lack of public services are typical issues of livelihood hardship.
Fluctuations in global commodity prices and exchange rates stimulate the cost of living in small open economies, heightening social tensions.
The key is that the simultaneous occurrence of a price shock and stagnant incomes transfers a sense of lost opportunities to the younger generation.
This structure resonates with the dynamics of protests in Europe as well.

Impact on Households and Businesses: The Disconnect Between Perceived Cycles and Cash Flow

Households are squeezed in terms of real disposable income as essential living expenses rise faster than wages.
Even though the proportion of fixed-rate loans is high, the benefits of lower rates are reflected with a lag during refinancing periods.
Businesses face compressed margins due to simultaneous increases in wages, energy, and financial costs, delaying capital investment decisions.
Sectors sensitive to demand and discretionary spending see increased volatility, while inelastic expenditures such as utilities and food remain steady.

Investment Checklist: Practical Positioning Reflecting Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Credit

Government Bonds · Credit

• For European government bonds, duration hedging centered on the German Bund is key, while managing spreads for exposure to France and Italy is critical.
• Investment-grade corporate bonds should be prioritized in defensive sectors (consumer staples, power, infrastructure), and high-yield bonds require selective approaches.

Stocks

• High-quality companies with the ability to pass on fixed costs and maintaining robust cash flows and dividend yields hold a relative advantage.
• Monitor sectors sensitive to economic cycles, discretionary spending, and French luxury goods, given the dual risks of a slowdown in Chinese demand and currency issues.

Exchange Rates

• If the ECB’s rate path is more dovish compared to the Fed, the euro is under significant downward pressure.
• In a phase of a strong dollar, increase the share of exchange hedging and prepare for volatility in currencies of energy importing countries.

Alternatives · Commodities

• When geopolitical factors and fiscal uncertainty converge, the hedging utility of safe assets like gold and silver increases.
• Monitor seasonal factors such as European gas inventory levels and LNG spreads.

Key Indicators

• An OAT–Bund spread exceeding 80bp, a sharp rise in France’s 5-year CDS, and the euro falling below 1.05 signal a contraction in risk-on sentiment.

AI Trends: Methods to “Reduce Deficits Without Cutting Spending” Amid Fiscal Tightening

Public sector AI targets both real fiscal savings and improvements in service quality simultaneously.

• Tax Revenue Optimization AI: By detecting high-risk patterns of tax omissions and prioritizing delinquent collections, there is potential to improve tax revenue by 0.3–0.6 percentage points.
• Medical AI: Enhancing bed turnover by optimizing image analysis, triage for waiting lists, and surgery scheduling helps alleviate the pressure of increased insurance expenditures.
• Welfare and Pension AI: Reducing leakages in costs through fraud detection, automated audits of payment errors, and customized welfare planning across life cycles.
• Energy Grid Optimization: Edge AI for demand response and distributed resource control mitigates peak costs, stabilizing electricity rates.
• Administrative Automation: Incorporating generative AI in the processing of documents, procurement, and citizen services reduces processing times and lowers the perceived administrative costs for the public.

EU Regulatory and Infrastructure Points

• The foundation requires ‘Sovereign AI’ compliant with the EU AI Act and cloud solutions that ensure data sovereignty.
• On-premises or private clouds, domestically produced encryption and audit logging, and model governance become essential requirements in procurement.
• With bottlenecks in semiconductors, power, and cooling infrastructure, investment themes focus on models and inference optimizations that enhance energy efficiency.

AI Basket Ideas from an Investment Perspective

• Infrastructure: Companies involved in European data centers’ power, cooling, and substation equipment.
• Semiconductors · Equipment: Players in lithography, power semiconductors, and post-processing automation.
• Software: Players that can up-sell ERP and industrial PaaS by incorporating generative AI.
• Energy: Integrated operators of demand response and smart grids.

The key is to partially offset growth constraints from global economic outlooks with ‘AI productivity’ to structurally reduce fiscal deficits.
Even in a period of fiscal tightening, a paradigm shift is necessary to view AI investments as essential infrastructure rather than merely a cost.

Key Points Not Discussed in Other News Sources

• Rigid expenditures, such as pensions and healthcare, create a “fixed cost of debt” situation, a problem exacerbated by shifts in the interest rate regime.
• French life insurance companies, with high exposure to OATs, may face valuation losses and depressed consumer sentiment if bond yields spike.
• Once EU fiscal rules are reinstated, starting in 2025, there is a risk of budgets focusing solely on “number matching” rather than on productive investments.
• The “structural increase in the cost of living” is more important than average inflation and serves as a catalyst for political and social risks.
• Properly functioning public sector AI could realistically improve the combined ratio of revenues and expenditures by 0.5–1.0 percentage points relative to GDP.

Monitoring Calendar and Triggers

• Review of France’s budget proposal and fiscal updates.
• ECB monetary policy meetings, dot plots, and signals regarding interest rate paths.
• The UK’s fiscal statements and discussions on local government bailouts.
• Italy’s government bond spreads and the outcomes of bank stress tests.
• Updates on European energy inventories and pricing policy.

< Summary >France faces rapidly weakening fiscal strength with a debt level of 116.5%, an aging population, and rigid expenditures.
Protests across Europe are a structural phenomenon driven by the gap between living costs and stagnant incomes, with the UK and Italy emerging as the next points of risk.
In terms of investment, defensive positioning and safe asset hedging centered around interest rates, spreads, and exchange rates are effective.
AI can function as a “productivity enhancer that reduces deficits” through optimizing tax revenue, streamlining welfare expenditures, and managing healthcare waiting lists.

[Related Articles…]

• The Correlation Between France’s Fiscal Deficit and Eurozone Interest Rates: Investor Checkpoints
• The 2025 Roadmap for Digital Transformation in the Public Sector Through AI Trends

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– 완전히 알거지 된 프랑스. 다음은 이곳 차례일 겁니다 | 김대영 군사평론가 4부 #디펜스뉴스

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