● Musk Power Grab One Trillion Pay, Tesla 2,600 Target as AI Robot Empire Looms

Musk’s $1 Trillion Compensation Plan Vote D-Day, the Meaning Behind the National Pension Fund’s ‘For’ Vote, Tesla’s $2,600 Scenario, and the Possibility of an AI & Robot Empire – All Summarized

This article includes the true significance of the National Pension Fund’s voting sentiment, the corporate governance changes if the compensation plan passes, the reverse-calculation of a $2,600 stock price based on a market capitalization of $5–$8.5 trillion, the roadmap and economies of scale for robotaxis, Optimus, and Dojo, China’s response with solid-state batteries and humanoid initiatives, the variables of regulation, interest rates, and capital costs, as well as the stock market repercussions under approval/rejection scenarios.
It also separately extracts and summarizes points rarely addressed by other YouTube channels or news outlets – “the passive funds inflow threshold,” “the leverage effect of capital cost reduction on AI CapEx,” and “the secondary surge in profits created by robot accounting and insurance structures.”
Let’s quickly check the essentials from the perspectives of the global economic flow, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and the transition to artificial intelligence.

Breaking News Highlights: Voting Timeline and Key Issues

According to a summary of the original report, Tesla’s shareholder meeting vote is scheduled for November 6 (Central Time) in the United States.
The location is Gigafactory Texas, and the focus of the agenda is on the re-approval of Elon Musk’s “performance-based compensation plan.”
The proposal is structured to be linked with market capitalization milestones (tranches) and business performance indicators.
Since the detailed figures may vary across public materials and reports, a final announcement should be confirmed.

Interpretation and Limitations of the National Pension Fund’s ‘For’ Vote

Reports indicate that the National Pension Fund has decided in favor of the compensation plan.
Even though its shareholding is not large, the signal effect of a public pension fund with a global governance stance is significant.
At the same time, it is possible to interpret the connection with XAI investment as drawing a line – “support for performance while blocking private interests,” which can be read as a principal message of governance.
However, the final count and official announcement are separate, and individual institutional votes may change at the last minute.

Institutions vs. Individuals: The Moment When the Power of Votes Shifts

Some large institutions maintained their opposition, while others shifted to support, according to reports.
This sets up a direct clash between the “against” opinions of proxy advisory firms (ISS, Glass Lewis) and the “united in support” of individual investors’ communities.
In a company like Tesla, where individual shareholders hold a high proportion, the meta issue in this vote is whether individual voting power can truly change the outcome.
While major platforms claim that the proxy voting procedures are based on “systematic criteria,” the symbolic impact of pressure from individual investors has grown.

Compensation Plan Structure: What the Numbers Tell Us

The compensation plan is structured in multiple tranches, with the key point being that it simultaneously requires reaching market capitalization targets (e.g., in the $5–$8.5 trillion range) and achieving business performance goals.
Some reports mention multiple targets such as vehicle deliveries, FSD subscriptions, the commercialization of robotaxis, Optimus production, and operating profit.
The main feature is that “compensation is granted only if targets are met,” making it a performance-based contract that leaves no reward in case of failure.
If passed, Musk’s strengthened control could lead to increased consistency and speed in decision-making, but it also carries governance risks stemming from weakened checks and balances.

Assumptions Behind a $5–$8.5 Trillion Market Cap and a $2,600 Stock Price Calculation

The assumption of a $2,600 stock price is based on the market capitalization being envisioned at $5–$8.5 trillion, and it is a scenario reverse-calculated by reflecting variables such as diluted shares outstanding, stock options exercised, treasury stock, and additional fundraising.
The same market cap can yield significantly different stock prices depending on the current number of diluted shares (e.g., assuming 3.2–3.4 billion shares).
Factors such as profit margins, interest rates, equity risk premium, regulatory approval speed, competition in China, and exchange rates determine the valuation multiples.
Therefore, the “$2,600” figure is only an outcome under specific assumptions and should not be taken as an absolute measure for investment decisions.

AI & Robot Roadmap: Execution Logic and Bottlenecks

The key to FSD is the quality of its data accumulation, learning-deployment loop, and how local regulations affect operational speed.
Robotaxi economics improve when low-cost software-based revenue is combined with high utilization rates.
Optimus (the humanoid robot) is initially likely to be adopted in B2B fields such as process automation and logistics, and as learning effects and production volumes increase, the cost curve is expected to decline.
Bottlenecks in components may arise from batteries (e.g., 4680/next-generation), gearboxes/actuators, high-resolution sensors, and durability certifications.
Dojo/supercomputers’ performance-to-cost ratios will be determined by factors such as power costs, cooling, and the optimization of software stacks.
China’s sector is aiming to differentiate by applying solid-state batteries to robots, in conjunction with its own AI chips, to enhance safety and energy density.
However, for the mass commercialization of solid-state batteries, technical uncertainties remain as the three critical factors – safety, yield, and cost – must align.

Global Economic Variables: The Shadow of Interest Rates and Regulations

Lower interest rates reduce the financing costs for Tesla’s large-scale CapEx (data centers and robot manufacturing lines), thereby effectively increasing the projects’ net present value (NPV).
Conversely, if high interest rates persist, the payback period for AI infrastructure and mass robot production lengthens, increasing the risk of the investment term.
The legal, insurance, and liability frameworks for autonomous driving vary by country, creating differences in the pace of commercialization.
Export controls (for advanced AI chips), labor market and union issues, and data localization rules may also limit implementation speed.
Global economic cycles, stock market fluctuations, and exchange rates simultaneously affect both the valuation multiples and demand.

Scenario-Based Repercussions: Approval, Rejection, or Conditional Resubmission

If approved, the strengthened leadership consistency could accelerate the AI and robot transition roadmap, potentially leading to a short-term stock rebound through restored market sentiment and liquidity inflows, though legal dispute risks may still remain.
If rejected, a short-term shock and the presentation of a redesigned plan (with adjustments in scale or reinforced conditions) are likely.
If conditionally resubmitted, key compromise points could include safety mechanisms in governance (blocking conflicts of interest, enhancing the independence of the board).

China’s Countermove: Solid-State Batteries × Humanoids

Chinese companies have hinted at a strategy to prioritize the application of solid-state batteries in robots to enhance safety and energy density.
By combining these with their own AI chips, they plan to drive automation in factories and launch large pilot projects, aiming to capture the market from B2B upwards.
This is an attempt to integrate the ecosystems of electric vehicles, AI, robotics, and batteries, broadening the competitive front against Tesla.
However, the commercial timeline will only materialize when the balance between technology, regulation, and cost is achieved.

Governance and ESG: Control Versus Speed

Expanding Musk’s decision-making authority can provide the speed and consistency needed in a period of major transition.
On the other hand, weakened checks and balances, the risk of controversial political statements, and fluctuations in ESG scores are grounds for institutional investors to oppose the plan.
The solution is to maintain performance-based compensation while formalizing measures to prevent conflicts of interest, strengthen board independence, and set guidelines for data, safety, and ethics.

Other Underexplored ‘Key Essentials’

Passive funds inflow threshold: When a company enters and maintains a position in the top tier by market cap, structural net inflows of passive funds due to index rebalancing may occur, potentially elevating the valuation floor.
Capital cost and AI CapEx leverage: A 100 basis point drop in interest rates can dramatically increase the NPV of data centers and robot production lines, lowering the threshold for investment approval.
A secondary rally in profitability from insurance and liability structures: Accumulated autonomous driving accident data could enable more precise insurance premium calculations, further boosting margins for FSD/robotaxis.
Depreciation design in robot accounting: The accounting assumptions regarding the useful life and residual value of humanoid robots have a significant impact on operating profit and cash flows.
Regulatory sandbox strategies by country: Leading nations may maximize network advantages by granting commercial permits first, accumulating data, and then expanding to other countries in sequence.

Checklist: What to Monitor Immediately

Check the official voting results and public announcements regarding legal disputes (jurisdiction, litigation risks).
Monitor whether details of the robotaxi pilot program, including range, pricing, and insurance schemes, are disclosed within the year.
Review the number of Optimus pilot units, achievements in process automation, and plans to resolve component bottlenecks.
Examine the scale of Dojo/AI cluster investments, power cost metrics, and performance-to-cost indices for model training.
Keep an eye on the solid-state battery roadmap, cost/yield metrics, and the success of major B2B contracts by Chinese companies.
Bear in mind the impact of the interest rate path, stock market volatility, and exchange rate on valuation multiples.

Risk Disclosure

This article is an analysis based on publicly available reports and original texts, and real-time announcements may differ.
It does not constitute investment or voting advice, and outcomes may vary significantly depending on the stock market, interest rates, and global economic variables.
Final judgments and accountability rest with the reader.

< Summary >

The vote on Musk’s compensation plan essentially boils down to a choice between “speed versus checks and balances,” and if approved, the combined effects of accelerated AI and robot transitions and reduced capital costs could be significant.
The $5–$8.5 trillion market cap scenario is highly sensitive to underlying assumptions, and the $2,600 stock price is merely an outcome under specific conditions.
China aims to begin from B2B with solid-state batteries and humanoids, while regulatory, interest rate, and capital cost factors will ultimately decide success.
Critical “secondary effects” such as the passive funds inflow threshold and insurance/accounting structures will determine the long-term valuation.

[Related Articles…]

• Tesla Robotaxi Economics: A Comprehensive Overview
• Cost Curves of Solid-State Batteries and Humanoid Robots

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 머스크 ‘1조달러 보상안’ 운명의 날! 국민연금 찬성, 테슬라 2600달러 간다! AI·로봇 제국의 탄생?

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● Bankers Triumph, Stablecoin Takeover, Weak Dollar

Stablecoin War: Triple Strategies of Tariffs, Exchange Rates, and a Weak Dollar with 2026 Global Economy Scenarios

This article emphasizes that it consolidates the key points in one place: who the winner is, why a weak dollar has become a strategy, and how tariffs, exchange rates, and stablecoins are bundled into one policy package.

It covers differences in regulatory directions among countries including Korea and China, 2026 global economy scenarios, interest rate and exchange rate trajectories, and an action checklist immediately applicable for companies and investors.

In particular, it separately outlines incentive designs such as “tariff benefits for stablecoin payments” that are rarely covered in the news or on YouTube, the mechanism whereby bank-issued stablecoins supplement SWIFT to extend hegemony, and the next-generation trade finance roadmap linked to AI agent payments.

News One-Line Briefing

The tariff war maintains its primary purpose of inducing reshoring.

At the same time, an exchange rate war with a weak dollar is combined to neutralize foreign strategies of counteracting tariffs.

The next step is the possibility of a “payment rail war” where tariff benefits based on stablecoin payments are provided.

The likely winner will be the “bank” that controls both the traditional financial network and the on-chain payment network.

Winner Dynamics: Banks vs. Corporations

Bank-issued or managed stablecoins provide on-chain payments that do not use SWIFT while ensuring regulatory compliance and credit.

The entity owning both the traditional financial network and the stablecoin network gains an advantage in network effects and regulatory bargaining power.

Corporations benefit from reduced fees and faster payment speeds, but ultimately, the network rules are designed by banks and regulatory authorities.

Tariff War 2.0: The Practical Mechanism of Manufacturing Reshoring

Raising tariffs forces foreign exporters to lower prices for the U.S. market, which cuts their profitability and increases the incentive to relocate production to within the United States.

Once price reductions hit their limit, relocating production becomes rationalized, creating a virtuous cycle by boosting domestic facility utilization.

The key is the sequential compression of “tariff pressure → price adjustment threshold → relocation of production base.”

Exchange Rate War: The Policy Logic of a Weak Dollar

During Trump’s first term, observations indicated a strong dollar, while China offset the tariff effects with a weak yuan.

In the second-term scenario, inducing a weak dollar is seen as a way to neutralize counterpart currency devaluation responses and enhance the relative price attractiveness of domestic production.

In conclusion, the exchange rate war serves as a supplemental engine that enhances the effectiveness of the tariff war.

Stablecoin War: The Political Economy of Seizing the Payment Rail

A plausible yet persuasive scenario is the incentive of “tariff benefits on a reciprocal or item-specific basis when the proportion of stablecoin payments increases.”

In this case, the United States would capture the standard of the trade payment ecosystem, and the network status of the dollar would be reinforced even in a weak dollar phase.

Stablecoin payments reduce remittance costs and overall payment times, and they make trade finance collateral and settlement programmable.

Comparing National Strategies: United States, Korea, China, Europe

The United States is likely to pursue a scenario in which it expands its payment infrastructure hegemony by combining models of both private stablecoins and bank participation.

Korea is discussed as taking a legislative approach by initially issuing and piloting within the primary financial sector and then gradually expanding, which may reinforce its bank-centric structure.

China places emphasis on CBDCs over stablecoins, prioritizing monetary sovereignty and data sovereignty.

Europe is exploring a coexistence model through MiCA by regulating private stablecoins while coexisting with bank tokenized deposits.

2026 Global Economy Outlook: Scenarios and Interest Rate & Exchange Rate Trajectories

In the baseline scenario, the combination of sustained tariffs, a weak dollar, and stablecoin payment incentives accelerates the reconfiguration of global value chains.

Global economic growth will be deeply asynchronous across regions, and while headline inflation may ease, supply-side reshoring costs could leave a sticky effect on core inflation.

Interest rates are expected to converge near neutral levels, but fluctuations in the term premium may increase owing to the impacts of tariff and exchange rate policies.

Exchange rates are assumed to follow a weak dollar trend, but significant volatility within a range is likely due to geopolitical events and policy communications.

Checklist for Investors and Companies

Pilot a portion of trade payments and cash-like assets with regulatory-friendly stablecoins or tokenized deposits.

Link the tariff and exchange rate events calendar with supply chain relocation decision-making.

During periods of a weak dollar, consider U.S. manufacturers and infrastructure beneficiaries, restructured logistics hubs, and solutions in automation and AI-Ops.

In preparation for lingering inflation risks, mix tangible assets, dividend/cash flow defensive stocks, short-term government bonds/MMFs, and on-chain government bond tokens.

AI Trend Connection: Automated Payments and On-Chain Trade Finance

If AI agents execute M2M payments with stablecoins, transaction authorization, invoice matching, and tariff calculations become automated in real-time.

Combining tokenized deposits with stablecoins will convert supply chain finance processes like payment guarantees, collateral management, and early discounting into smart contracts.

If tariff benefits are linked to payment rail choice, AI will continuously scan for the lowest total cost route, simultaneously optimizing exchange rates, fees, and tariffs.

Why Banks Win: The Crucial Point Rarely Discussed Elsewhere

Banks optimize risk weighting under KYC and capital regulations, bundling tokenized deposits and stablecoins into a unified user experience to absorb liquidity.

If banks own the messaging and clearing hub bridging SWIFT and on-chain systems, companies effectively become subject to the banks’ policy pricing.

When tariff benefits and payment rails merge, the bank license is reinterpreted as the “key to tariff reductions,” exponentially boosting its bargaining power.

Policy Insights: Programmable Integration of Stablecoins and Tariffs

If the proportion of stablecoin payments, country of origin codes, CO2 emissions, and intermediate goods nationalities are tagged on-chain, “programmable tariffs” that automatically adjust rates become possible.

This structure reduces data gaps in tax evasion and dumping judgments, enhancing enforceability and strengthening the connection between policy objectives and trade costs.

Risk Map: What to Monitor

Regulatory event risks depend on whether bank-issued stablecoins are limited, the standardization of reserve assets, and the strengthening of reserve transparency requirements.

Market risks arise from shifts in the direction of the dollar, a rebound in interest rates, and liquidity crunches caused by geopolitical shocks.

Technological risks include smart contract security, bridge hacking, and oracle manipulation, though banks may mitigate these through insurance and captive risk management.

Execution Guide: Portfolio and Treasury Operations

Companies should designate a pilot trade payment line to compare the total costs of stablecoin and traditional payments on a monthly basis.

For exchange rate hedging under the assumption of a weak dollar, mix call/put spreads, natural hedges, and on-chain hedging tools.

Investors should assume asynchronous global economic developments, diversify by region and sector, flexibly adjust cash-like asset proportions, and combine assets that defend against inflation.

Detail Cooldown: Tether vs. Circle vs. Banks

Tether benefits from significant network effects in exchange and emerging market payments, while Circle’s strength lies in regulatory friendliness and bank partnerships.

Bank-issued stablecoins offer advantages in regulatory compliance and balance sheet credibility, but their user experience and global availability may initially be slower compared to private tokens.

The final landscape is likely to be determined by the product of “regulatory compliance × network accessibility × tariff incentives.”

The Position of Bitcoin and Gold

Even if stablecoins dominate the payment rail, Bitcoin and gold will continue to play roles as macro hedges and in diversifying reserve assets.

As tariff and exchange rate volatility increases, intrinsic volatility hedge demand may expand in certain ranges.

Summary Perspective: Why the Dollar Becomes ‘Stronger’ Even When Weak

The dollar index might be weak, but if payment network dominance is combined with tariff incentives, the “dependence on dollar usage” may actually increase.

This is the essence of the stablecoin war, and the side that controls the payment rail will hold the policy leverage for the next cycle.

Keyword Insight Insertion

The reordering of the global economy is intertwined with interest rates, exchange rates, the dollar, inflation loops, and standardized payment rails.

The ability to interpret policy combinations is equivalent to alpha.

Next Steps: What to Do Immediately

Pilot stablecoin payments across a minimum of three regions to build a dataset.

Incorporate a tariff and exchange rate event tracker into your KPIs.

Collaborate in a tripartite structure with banks, fintech companies, and custodians to share risks.

Note

The policy directions and tariff benefit linkages mentioned above are projections and hypotheses based on public statements and market discourse; the actual implementation timing may vary based on the specific details of legislation and regulatory frameworks in each country.

< Summary >

The tariff war induces reshoring, the exchange rate war reinforces its effectiveness, and the stablecoin war completes the dominance of the payment rail.

The winner is the bank that controls both traditional and on-chain networks, and even if the dollar is weak, its network power can be strengthened.

Korea is likely to allow a gradual, bank-centric approach, China will prioritize CBDCs, and the United States is expected to standardize payments based on incentives.

Investors and companies should respond by piloting payment programs, diversifying exchange rate hedges, and tracking policy events.

[Related Articles…]

Trump 2.0: Analysis of Tariff and Exchange Rate Strategies

Outlook on Bank-Issued Stablecoins, Regulation, and Payment Hegemony

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 미국이 스테이블코인으로 세계를 다스릴 겁니다(ft.김광석 실장 3부)

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● Bombshell Court Blow to Tariffs, AI Cost Collapse Ignites Chip Supercycle

Trump Tariffs and the Supreme Court Variable, AI Cost Collapse and the Apple-Google Deal, and the Second Act of Semiconductors: The True Signal of the Current Rally

This article covers the reasons behind the Supreme Court challenging Trump’s tariff authority and its impact on asset markets, the second act of semiconductors prompted by the rapid drop in AI inference costs, the industrial shifts from the Apple-Google “Siri” partnership, short-term volatility signals interpreted through VIX and options flows, and an investment checklist by sector.

It is organized in a news format that allows you to immediately assess global economic trends, stock market forecasts, and the practical effects on interest rates and inflation.

Today’s Market Overview

• U.S. stocks closed higher overall, with the Russell 2000 showing relative strength.
• The rebound was led by large tech stocks, and the semiconductor sector performed strongly.
• NVIDIA and Palantir experienced relative weakness during the day due to increased put option flows.
• Although the VIX fell on the day, there have been intermittent periods where it rises simultaneously with the S&P 500 recently.

Update on the Bubble Debate: The AI Cost Curve is Key

Compared to the digital transformation era (1990s to 2000s), this cycle has seen the Nasdaq rise by about 100% while semiconductor sales increased by only around 50%.

This is attributed to a mature smartphone penetration rate near 70% and high initial cost barriers for AI adoption.

However, there is a growing view that as AI inference and training costs have plummeted over the past 1–2 years, a critical point is being reached.

Major players like OpenAI are significantly lowering inference costs through model efficiency and infrastructure optimization, which could accelerate the spread of AI in enterprise systems, consumer devices, and on-device AI.

The key question is whether the collapse in costs can trigger a “surge” in semiconductor demand.

If agent AI, on-device AI, and a hybrid edge-cloud architecture become mainstream, there is significant potential for simultaneous growth in memory (HBM/DDR5), high-bandwidth networking (400/800G), power semiconductors and power management devices, and the CXL ecosystem.

The reacceleration of global productivity could conflict with price stability, demanding a delicate balance between growth and inflation in the interest rate trajectory.

Interpreting the Apple-Google “Siri” Deal: The Consumer AI Battle Ignited by Devices

According to reports, Apple is considering applying Google’s AI model to Siri, with an annual fee estimated at approximately $1 billion.

This suggests that instead of immediately challenging with its own large model, Apple is taking a pragmatic approach by leveraging the best external model to enhance consumer-perceived quality.

The implication is clear.

Leadership in AI is shifting from the cloud to devices, and the competition for the “basic AI engine” is set to intensify within the iOS/Android ecosystems.

The importance of NPU performance for on-device AI, the demand for LPDDR/HBM, and semiconductors for batteries and power management will surge dramatically.

Issues regarding revenue redistribution from content and search will follow, and antitrust concerns related to basic engine contracts could emerge as a mid- to long-term risk.

Option Microstructure Check: Short-Term Distortions in NVIDIA and Palantir

Recently, NVIDIA and Palantir have seen increased demand for put options and sell pressure due to delta hedging.

These microstructural issues can create short-term price distortions without undermining fundamentals, making the calendar of expiries and gamma positioning crucial.

Beyond short-term noise, the lead times for server GPUs/accelerators, HBM capacity expansion, networking switch shipments, and customer AI capital expenditure guidance are the key fundamental signals.

The Supreme Court Shaking Trump’s Tariffs: The Boundaries of IEPA Authority

The key issue is whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA) not only permits “export-import restrictions” but also delegated the authority to impose “tariffs” to the president.

Given that tariffs essentially function like taxes, there is a counterargument that this power belongs to Congress, and even within the conservative-leaning Supreme Court, skeptical questions have arisen.

According to prediction markets like PolyMarket, the probability of the Supreme Court siding with Trump’s tariffs has sharply dropped.

The decision is expected in a few months, during which time policy uncertainty may be factored in as a premium.

Implications if Tariff Authority is Restricted: The Domino Effects on Stocks, Inflation, and the Dollar

• Inflation/Interest Rates: If the likelihood of imposing new general tariffs (e.g., 10%) diminishes, upward pressure on import prices may ease, possibly lowering the CPI trajectory in the medium term.
• Stock Market Outlook: This would be positive for U.S. sectors that depend on imports (retail, consumer goods, solar components, some industrials), but negative for sectors that rely on tariff shields.
• Dollar/Trade: A reduction in the tariff risk premium may dampen some factors behind a strong dollar and could slow down the pace of global supply chain restructuring.
• Alternatives: The administration could expand alternative measures such as Section 301/232 investigations, sanctions, and non-tariff barriers (security, data, environment), meaning that “regulatory trade barriers” will remain a variable.

Trump’s Miami Speech: Framing “Stocks = Achievement” and Regional Divides

Former President Trump highlighted record-high stock prices and a third-quarter growth rate of around 4% to emphasize his economic accomplishments.

Amid mixed election results in New York, the framing of “from New York to Miami” reinforces an image of a pro-business, low-regulation stance.

Considering that his policy message focuses on the stock market and investment in manufacturing/AI, the market is likely to continue pricing in a combination of tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff measures.

VIX Moving in Tandem with the S&P 500? Interpreting Early Overheating Signals

Historically, the VIX and the S&P 500 have exhibited a negative correlation, but periods of simultaneous rises like the current phase have been observed in early stages of overheating.

However, it is important to note that while the VIX remains above its long-term average (around 17), it is not indicative of extreme fear nor is it at the bottom (around 12); it is in a zone of “gradual optimism.”

Interpretation: Although volatility pockets are growing within the rally and careful stock selection and position management are required, this does not signal the end of the cycle.

The Hidden Bottleneck in AI Data Centers: “Power” and “Lead Times”

• Power: There are increasing cases where the expansion of AI farms is being hindered by issues with power grid approvals and transmission/distribution capacity.
• Lead Times: The lead times for HBM, CoWoS packaging, 800G switches, optical modules, and DC power equipment can largely determine the cyclical fluctuations.
• Policy: Investments in power infrastructure, and the mix of nuclear, gas, and renewable energy, will effectively dictate the upper growth limit of data centers.

Investment Checklist by Sector

• Semiconductors: Prioritize HBM/DDR5, CXL, 400/800G networking, power semiconductors, and AI server ODM/EMS.
• Software: Check themes benefiting from agent AI and on-device AI, such as RAG, toolchain, and MLOps efficiency models.
• Platforms/Devices: Watch for the emerging basic AI engine battle from the Apple-Google collaboration, and note the implications for NPU integration and battery/PMIC replacement demand.
• Domestic U.S. Markets: A reduction in tariff uncertainty could benefit sectors reliant on imports (retail, consumer goods, distribution), though sectors dependent on tariff shields might suffer.
• Utilities/Energy: Consider benefits from a surge in data center power demand, along with potential expansions in transmission, distribution, and power facility capital expenditures.

Data Points and Schedule

• Option Positioning: Monitor monthly/quarterly option expiries and changes in gamma exposure.
• AI CapEx: Keep an eye on hyperscaler guidance, HBM capacity expansions, and updates on packaging capacity.
• Macroeconomic Indicators: Pay attention to CPI/PPI, employment, ISM, and retail sales releases that may prompt a re-pricing of interest rate expectations.
• Policy Risks: Follow the progress of the Supreme Court’s review of the tariff issue and any updates in campaign promises.

Key Points Overlooked by Other YouTube/News Outlets

• Policy Micro-Points: If the Supreme Court places emphasis on “tariffs = congressional authority,” the next administration’s general tariff measures could be significantly weakened.
• This would not immediately lower inflation and interest rate paths but could trigger a shift from price risks to regulatory risks, raising firms’ compliance costs as a new constant.
• The real bottleneck in the AI cycle is not the “chip” but rather “power/infrastructure.”
• Bottlenecks in power, cooling, site acquisition, and permits could restrict the cyclical peak more forcefully than semiconductor shipments.
• The battleground for consumer AI will be defined by “basic engine contracts.”
• The Apple-Google deal could trigger a repricing of the platform value chain by reshaping revenue-sharing in search and advertising and stirring up antitrust issues.

Risk Management Guide

• Positioning: In anticipation of growing volatility pockets within the rally, predefine profit-taking and stop-loss criteria.
• Hedging: Before and after key events (inflation, employment, policy), use index puts, call spreads, long volatility, or pair trades to absorb drawdowns.
• Selection: Focus on AI value chains and power infrastructure with high CapEx visibility, ensuring alignment between cash flows and capacity expansion.

Timeline for the Trump Issue

• Short Term: Proceed with the Supreme Court hearing → Forecast and prediction market probabilities reflected in exchange rates and bonds.
• Medium Term: Upon a final ruling, a reassessment of the efficacy of general tariff policies → Recalibration of import prices and inflation expectations.
• Alternative: Strengthening of non-tariff measures and sanctions, shifting the nature of the risk from “price” to “regulation.”

One-Line Conclusion

This rally is characterized more by “early diffusion and cost collapse” rather than being overheated.

Policy premiums will track the Supreme Court variable, while earnings premiums will be linked to HBM, power, and networking.

The key is to focus first on the second act of semiconductors and power infrastructure.

< Summary >

• The Supreme Court hints that tariffs may be equivalent to congressional authority, raising doubts about the effectiveness of general tariff measures.
• The plummeting costs of AI inference are reaching a critical point for on-device and agent AI, opening a second act for semiconductor demand.
• The Apple-Google Siri collaboration signals the start of a battle over the basic AI engine, boosting demand for devices, NPUs, and power semiconductors.
• The phase where the VIX and S&P move together signals early overheating, though the average VIX level remains indicative of “gradual optimism.”
• Portfolio focus: Prioritize HBM/networking/power, power infrastructure/utilities, and domestic stocks benefiting from lower regulatory risks.

[Related Articles…]

• AI Data Center Power Shortages Open the Second Act for Semiconductors
• Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs and Its Impact on Inflation and Interest Rates

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [홍장원의 불앤베어] 트럼프 관세, 대법원이 흔든다. 트럼프 “공산주의 뉴욕 떠나 마이애미로 향할 것”

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