● Margin Panic, Yield Shock, Tesla Taxi Gamble, Bitcoin Decoupling

D-2 Nvidia Earnings, Japan’s Rate Transition, Tesla Robo-Taxi, Bitcoin Decoupling – All in One Summary

In this article, we cover whether Nvidia can defend its gross margin (73.5%), the TSMC packaging bottleneck, a fact-check on Peter Thiel’s sale, the advent of a 1.7% era for Japan’s 10-year bonds and the risks of unwinding the carry trade, the regulatory checklist for Tesla’s robo-taxi, U.S. real activity via Walmart and employment data, and the decoupling of Bitcoin from the Nasdaq.
We have selected only the truly important variables from the trends of the global economy and the U.S. stock market, reinterpreting the context deeply in a news-like concise manner.
You can pick up the points to use in your positioning for this week.

Today’s Market Briefing: Indices, Sectors, and Issues

• The Nasdaq opened slightly lower then rebounded, the S&P 500 climbed modestly, and the Dow stayed around flat.
• Nvidia’s weakness led to an initial decline, but rapid gains for Google provided some defense.
• Nvidia started about 2% lower and then trimmed the losses, Google surged 5–6%, and Micron saw strength with an upward revision in its target price.
• Eli Lilly was weak due to Nova Nordisk’s price cut issue, and while Apple reported good demand, its stock experienced a correction.
• In short, the keywords are AI semiconductors with mixed strengths, a rebound in major platforms, and concerns about healthcare profitability.

Nvidia Earnings D-2: Key Points Checklist

• Defending the gross margin is the top priority.
• The Wall Street consensus is set at around 73.5%.
• Early yields for Blackwell and mix changes could shake the margin, making this number the most sensitive watch for the market.
• It is essential to check the extent to which Blackwell sales are reflected in the Q4 guidance.
• Pay attention to the speed of conversion before shipment and whether conservative assumptions for the initial ramp are attached.
• The key is whether TSMC’s advanced packaging (such as CoWoS) capacity constraints remain a bottleneck.
• If capacity guidance is eased, it is favorable for multiple defenses; conversely, if the bottleneck persists, the speed of converting the backlog to cash may slow down.
• Verifying the persistence of hyperscaler demand is crucial.
• Check if the data center investment plans of Meta, Microsoft, and Google are translating into sales, and if data center revenue is exceeding consensus.
• Look at the comments regarding the cash conversion speed of the backlog and the quality of the order book (product mix, delivery timelines).
• Korean investors should note the correlation with SK Hynix.
• Depending on earnings and guidance results, the volatility of Hynix could expand.

Peter Thiel ‘Selling Nvidia’ Issue: Fact-Check and Interpretation

• The reported selling entity is Thiel Macro LLC, and its position relative to Thiel’s total assets is very minimal.
• It is different in nature from the main, unlisted-focused Founders Fund, and the position had a strong short-term trading character.
• Considering it was a liquidation aimed at realizing profits within nine months, interpreting it as a “strategic exit due to bubble warnings” is an overreach.
• In conclusion, it is simply a “short-term psychological bruise due to symbolic news,” and should not be seen as a signal of fundamental deterioration.

Tesla: Target Price $508 (Stiepel), the Real Hurdle for Robo-Taxi is Regulation

• Stiepel acknowledged the risk of a slowdown in vehicle deliveries, but he sees robo-taxi as a long-term growth driver.
• It was mentioned that by the end of the year, Tesla plans to expand robo-taxi services to Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Miami.
• The key is not the FSD version but the progress on the regulatory checklist regarding city-specific permits, insurance, and liability issues.
• As reports vary on whether some regions are still in the application stage, the actual number of operating cities and the boarding data will determine next year’s valuation.
• From an investment standpoint, each “verification event” in the timeline towards commercialization of robo-taxi could lead to a re-rating.

Japan’s 10-Year Bonds at 1.7%: The End of a 30-Year Ultra-Low Interest Rate and the Risk of Unwinding the Carry Trade

• The yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds has risen to the 1.7% range, reinforcing the signal of a regime shift.
• If the ultra-low interest rate environment, which has lasted nearly 30 years, is shaken, reducing or unwinding the yen carry trade becomes inevitable.
• The structural changes in global liquidity can be a headwind, especially for high-valuation tech stocks in the U.S. market.
• Some research has pointed out a correlation between U.S. big tech valuations and Japanese interest rates since the end of 2022.
• The implications are twofold:
• Relying solely on expectations of reaching a rate peak is not enough for valuation defense, and a shift in Japan’s rate regime could lower the top end of the multiples.
• In terms of positioning, managing exposure between high-valuation growth stocks and long-duration assets is necessary.

U.S. Real Activity Check: Walmart Earnings and the Economic Calendar

• Walmart’s earnings serve as a barometer for the strength of U.S. consumer activity and the quality of downward inflation stabilization.
• Key data include price changes, traffic, the mix of lower-income consumers, and the proportion of private labels.
• Delayed employment-related indicators due to the shutdown will be released, offering clues for the Fed’s December rate decision.
• A continued rate pause diminishes liquidity expectations, which is neutral to slightly negative for the stock market.

Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: The Implication of Decoupling Correlation

• Since early October, the Nasdaq has been strong while Bitcoin has shown weakness, indicating a divergence in trends.
• This can be interpreted in two ways:
• Either the demand for cryptocurrencies from institutions has relatively weakened, or the traditional cyclical pattern around the halving is evolving into one with more institutional adoption.
• In the short term, Bitcoin is not sharing the “liquidity beta” seen in the Nasdaq rally.
• For them to move in tandem again, the overall credit and leverage conditions for risk assets must ease.

Checklist for Korean Investors

• Right after Nvidia’s earnings, SK Hynix’s beta may increase.
• Check Nvidia’s three sets of figures: gross margin, data center revenue, and Blackwell guidance.
• The structural rise in Japanese rates may increase volatility in the KRW/JPY and KRW/USD exchange rates and could indirectly affect the multiples of export stocks.
• As the U.S. stock market enters a phase of value re-evaluation, managing volatility in the overheated AI semiconductor chain relative to earnings is necessary.

Key Points Not Often Mentioned by Other YouTube/News Sources

• For Nvidia, the focus should be on ‘margin’ rather than ‘growth.’
• In just one line, the ability to defend a gross margin in the 73% range determines the multiples.
• The global AI cycle’s bottleneck is not HBM but the advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity.
• Announcements on capacity expansion can change the quality of earnings.
• Japan’s 10-year bonds at 1.7% may represent a ‘regime change’ greater than the U.S. FOMC events.
• Unwinding of the carry trade can snuff out the primary fuel of global liquidity.
• The true key to Tesla’s robo-taxi is not FSD but the framework for city-specific permits, insurance, and liability.
• The “permit map for commercialization” is a milestone for next year’s valuation.
• Walmart is a real-time mirror of inflation impact perception and shifts in consumer mix.
• Make sure to watch the gross margin and the proportion of private labels.

Strategy Map: This Week’s Positioning Guide

• Scenario A) Nvidia beats on margin and guidance, with comments on eased capacity constraints
• Rerating of the AI semiconductor chain; the rebound beta may be more significant for Hynix and Micron.
• Scenario B) Margin miss or reconfirmation of the capacity bottleneck
• A downward revision of data center consensus, a broad sell-off of high-valuation tech, and Japanese rate news may confirm a downside.
• Scenario C) News flags on progress in Tesla’s robo-taxi permits
• Short-term story premiums could flow in, but note that volatility may accompany such moves as earnings remain unaffected.
• General Response
• In periods of heightened U.S. market volatility, remain sensitive to signs of rate, inflation, and global liquidity contraction.
• Adjust your portfolio by balancing high-valuation growth stocks and defensive stocks (utilities, consumer staples) and manage cash exposure based on market conditions.
• This article is provided for informational purposes only, and the responsibility for investment results lies with the investor.

This Week’s Calendar at a Glance

• Nvidia Earnings Release: After market close, with expectations of expanded beta in the domestic market the following morning.
• U.S. employment/unemployment-related data: Delayed due to the shutdown, providing clues for the Fed’s December decision.
• Walmart Earnings (pre-market): Key data points include U.S. consumer strength, price sensitivity, inventory, and margin trends.

< Summary >

• Nvidia’s key challenges are defending a gross margin of 73.5%, Blackwell guidance, and the TSMC packaging bottleneck.
• Peter Thiel’s sale is of a small, short-term nature in a non-core fund and should not be overinterpreted as a “bubble liquidation” signal.
• Tesla’s long-term value lies in progress on robo-taxi regulation, with city-specific permit maps as crucial evidence.
• Japan’s 10-year bonds at 1.7% signal a potential trigger for unwinding the carry trade, posing a headwind for high-valuation U.S. stocks.
• Use Walmart’s and employment indicators to assess the state of real activity, and note that Bitcoin-Nasdaq decoupling points to a slowdown in liquidity for risk assets.

[Related Articles…]

• Nvidia Blackwell & Packaging Bottleneck Check: 7 Earnings Checklist Points
• The Impact of Unwinding the Carry Trade on U.S. Stock Market Valuations

SEO Reference Keywords: Global Economy, U.S. Stock Market, Interest Rates, Inflation, AI Semiconductors.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 웰스파고, 엔비디아 목표주가 상향ㅣ스티펄, 테슬라 목표주가 508달러로ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕

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