● Dollar Panic, Pension Backfire, Policy Trust Crisis

Exchange Rates Are a Battle of Sentiments, and the Solution Is a Roadmap: “Policy Trust” Comes Before Blaming National Pension Funds and Overseas Individual Investors — 2026 Economic Outlook and AI Cycle Investment Strategy

This article contains exactly three points.
1) It explains in detail, down to the market microstructure and psychological mechanisms, why exchange rates cannot be controlled through “intervention”.
2) It presents the “signaling paradox” that arises when targeting national pension funds and overseas individual investors, along with a checklist for a policy roadmap.
3) It provides detailed investment strategies for different scenarios in interest rates, the dollar, inflation, and the stock market for 2025–2026, as well as the actual impact of the AI semiconductor cycle on the Korean won and exports.

News Briefing: What Is Really Happening in the Market Right Now

After the government’s verbal and physical interventions, the exchange rate temporarily dropped, but quickly rebounded.
This confirms that if the underlying structure remains unchanged, sentiment cannot be altered.

The exchange rate is a psychological battle between real demand (corporate payments, studying abroad, immigration, etc.) and investment demand.
Only when the expectation that “the dollar will become more expensive in the future” is dispelled will the buying pressure disappear.

News of foreign divestment from government bonds and stocks is merely a “phenomenon”.
The essence lies in concerns about fiscal soundness, delayed expectations for interest rate cuts, and weakened policy trust.
Credit ratings, CDS, and government bond spreads compress these signals.

The issue of securities firms exchanging currency all at once at 9 a.m. is a problem of the foreign exchange market’s microstructure.
While stocks are traded almost 24 hours, Korean won spot transactions see a concentrated liquidity rush at 9 a.m.
This leads to frequent opening spikes and reinforces the psychological perception of a strong dollar.

Key Issue: Why Exchange Rates Cannot Be Controlled by Targeting National Pension Funds and Overseas Individual Investors

Although hedging and swaps by national pension funds are useful for “buying time” during crises, they are unlikely to create a structural downward trend.
If hedging costs are high or the cross-currency basis widens, it can even be interpreted by the market as a signal of a dollar shortage.

The narrative that vilifies overseas individual investors may be politically easy, but it can send a reverse signal to the market that “dollars are scarce”.
As policy uncertainty and regulatory risks accumulate, expectations for a decline in the exchange rate weaken further.

In conclusion, the exchange rate should be managed not by “blaming someone” but by presenting a roadmap that offers grounds for a slower rise in the dollar.
The outcome will be decided in a game of trust with the market.

Policy Roadmap Proposal: What the Market Wants Is “Plan and Quantity”

• Disclosure of a medium-term fiscal soundness plan.
  Present the items, scale, and timeline for expenditure restructuring over the next three years in numerical terms.
• Expansion of the pipeline for foreign capital inflows.
  Disclose on a monthly basis the plans for responding to inclusion in the government bond index, tax incentives, and the issuance of bonds aimed at attracting long-term funds.
• Micro-level reforms in the FX market.
  Gradually implement measures such as extending the trading hours for Korean won NDF and spot transactions, easing the 9 a.m. concentration, and expanding liquidity providers (LPs) on the electronic trading platform.
• Communication rules.
  Instead of setting quarterly exchange rate bands as targets, build trust by disclosing the “cards available and the maximum deployment limit” during stress situations and explaining the order and conditions of their use.
• Enhancing transparency in diplomatic and security expenditures.
  If an increase in external burdens is unavoidable, reduce uncertainty by simultaneously publishing simulations and funding plans.

Investment Strategy: A Playbook for Different Scenarios in 2025–2026

It is advisable to stick to five keywords.
Frame scenarios around exchange rates, interest rates, the dollar, inflation, and the stock market.

• Sustained Korean won weakness (medium probability).
  It is recommended to increase the allocation to dollar cash and U.S. short-term bonds (unhedged), Korean export-oriented stocks (IT, automobiles, shipbuilding), and diversify with commodities (gold).
  A strong dollar is positive for the profits of export stocks but negative for domestic consumption.
• Gradual stabilization (if policy trust improves).
  It is advantageous to selectively approach U.S. assets with currency hedging (hedged ETF), domestic stocks, REITs, and long-term bonds that benefit from a narrowing of the term premium.
• Sharp reversal (with a rapid surge in global risk appetite and early rate cuts by the Fed).
  Increasing the allocation to growth stocks and emerging market equities, along with a long-duration strategy in Korean won bonds, can be beneficial, although managing volatility is key.

Here are some practical risk management tips.
Consider increasing the proportion of forward exchange hedges if the exchange rate breaks above 1,500, check the allocation of dollar cash if the DXY exceeds 110, and reduce exposure to risky assets if the 5Y CDS spikes.

AI Cycle: The “Real Economy Trigger” Connecting Exchange Rates and the Stock Market

There is a high likelihood that AI infrastructure CAPEX will continue into 2025–2026.
Demand for HBM, advanced packaging (advanced CoWoS), foundry services, and components for AI servers will be the driving forces behind Korean exports.

When the dollar is strong, the exchange rate translation benefits of export prices increase, and if accompanied by a decline in interest rates, valuation level-ups are triggered.
If the dollar shifts to weakness, while the translation effect on earnings diminishes, multiple expansions and a rebound in domestic demand become favorable for the stock market.

A balanced portfolio that manages both sides is most efficient.
A strategy combining an unhedged U.S. AI/semiconductor ETF with a core of Korean export stocks listed in won, while utilizing domestic stocks and content as satellite holdings based on policy momentum, is reasonable.

Key Points Not Covered Elsewhere Summarized Separately

• The Signaling Paradox.
  News that pressures national pension funds and overseas individual investors can be interpreted as a signal that “dollars are scarce,” thereby increasing the waiting demand for dollar purchases.
  The most important question for the market is “what cards remain available.”
• The Microstructure of the 9 a.m. Currency Exchange Rush.
  The opening spike in spot transactions affects sentiment, hedging costs, and the formation of benchmark rates alike.
  Improvements in trading hours and the transaction structure, though minor, yield consistent stabilizing effects.
• Hedging Costs and the Basis.
  An expansion in currency hedging contributes to short-term stability, but an increase in the cross-currency basis can conversely signal a dollar shortage.
  Therefore, market-based hedging incentives are preferable to forced hedging.
• The Risk of Supply Illusion.
  If the future inflow of dollars from the national pension fund is packaged as if it were immediate physical supply, it poses a significant risk of eroding trust.
  It is necessary to disclose quantity, timeline, and costs together.
• AI Exports as the Fundamental Pillar of the Exchange Rate.
  A systematic increase in the exports of semiconductors and related components is needed to establish the argument for an undervalued Korean won.
  The continuation of AI CAPEX is a critical variable for the trajectory of the exchange rate in 2026.

Checklist: Key Indicators and Behavioral Rules to Monitor Weekly

• Global Indicators.
  DXY, UST 2Y·10Y, updates to the Fed dot plot, commodities (gold, copper).
• Domestic Credit and Policy Trust.
  5Y CDS, government bond spreads for 3-10 years, foreign bond spreads, fiscal balance announcements, and whether there are updates to the policy roadmap.
• Foreign Exchange Liquidity.
  The gap between 1M USD/KRW NDF and spot rates, cross-currency basis, and the net purchases of foreign government bonds and stocks.
• Real Export Data.
  Weekly semiconductor export figures, DRAM/HBM price index, and indices for shipping and air cargo.
• Behavioral Rules.
  If the exchange rate remains above 1,500 for three consecutive trading days, reduce exposure to risky assets by 10–20%; if it drops below 1,430 with stable CDS levels, reduce hedging and restore domestic demand allocation.

Closing Remarks: Let Us Rely on Policy

The exchange rate is a battle of sentiment, and sentiment can only be changed by trust.
Trust is built solely through plans, quantities, and timelines.
A roadmap is more important than intervention, numerical data more than slogans, and quarterly plans more than daily actions.
Only then will expectations for interest rates, the dollar, and inflation change, and the valuation of the stock market reopen.

< Summary >

• Intervention alone cannot control the exchange rate.
  A policy roadmap that changes sentiment and fiscal trust is key.
• Pressuring national pension funds and overseas individual investors can instead signal a dollar shortage.
  It is necessary to disclose quantity and timeline.
• Microstructure improvements such as easing the 9 a.m. exchange rush yield small but consistent effects.
• For 2025–2026, adjust the allocation between dollars, bonds, export stocks, and domestic stocks according to different exchange rate scenarios.
  AI CAPEX is the real pillar supporting Korean exports and the Korean won.

[Related Articles…]

• 2025: The Journey of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates — Survival Strategies for the KOSPI Amid a Strong Dollar
• How the AI Semiconductor Cycle Is Changing the Liquidity Map of the Stock Market

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 서학개미, 국민연금 잡는다고 환율이 잡히지 않습니다

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● Pyongyang Panic, Smuggled K-Drama Boom, Succession Conspiracy

From Pyongyang’s “Kim Ju-ae Disappearance Rumor” to the Spread of K-Dramas, and the Real Impact of 2025 Geopolitical Risks on the Global Economy and AI Trends

In the content you are about to read, we cover how to interpret internal rumors from Pyongyang as economic data, the political economy of Kim Ju-ae’s “exposure/invisibility,” the latest AI technologies used in North Korean censorship and citizen bypass tactics, and the connection of geopolitical risks to global economic and interest rate forecasts for 2025, along with investment strategies.
We also provide a checklist to differentiate between verifiable signals and rumors.
We even touch on aspects such as the correlation between market prices/exchange rates during the monsoon season and cultural diffusion, which is rarely discussed elsewhere.

Issue Briefing: Key Claims and Fact Levels in the Video

This issue is based on the claims from a video recorded on November 18.
The main points can be summarized into three:
1) The spread of Korean popular culture, which even Kim Jong-un could not stop.
2) Shocking rumors circulating in Pyongyang and the real reasons behind Kim Ju-ae’s non-exposure.
3) Possibilities of succession issues and health concerns.
The classification criteria are first clarified as follows:

• Verified Facts: North Korea’s continuous strengthening of cultural censorship and punitive regulations, and attempts to introduce illegal storage media.
• High Probability: The circulation of K-content through Chinese border/black market channels, and management of political signals by controlling exposure frequency in state media.
• Unconfirmed Rumors: Specific reasons behind Kim Ju-ae’s “disappearance” and detailed aspects of the supreme leader’s health concerns.
  This article evaluates plausibility based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and economic signals, and refrains from making definitive assertions.

The Economics of K-Dramas Entering North Korea: Channels, Prices, and Risks

The influx channels can be largely categorized as smuggling via USB/microSD, bypassing using Chinese cell phones/relay devices, Bluetooth/short-range transfers, and small-scale mesh networks.
The demand stems from the high utility of “curiosity + access to external information,” and the supply reflects a price premium due to the risks of arrest and seizure.
In the marketplace, the risk premium changes frequently, and during periods of intensified crackdowns, short-term prices spike while transaction volumes shrink.
Economically, the cycle of “increased censorship intensity → increased risk premium → higher prices → increased supplier surplus (if successful) and decreased consumer accessibility” is repeated.
The high cultural utility of Korean content acts as a force that maintains intrinsic demand despite suppression.
This is a typical pathway of soft power altering societal preferences by penetrating through geopolitical risks.

AI and the Tech War Between Censorship and Bypassing: The 2025 Roadmap

For the censorship side, AI is used in:

• Deep learning for detecting keywords and subtitles and facial/scene recognition to identify Korean content.
• File watermark/hash matching and pattern detection based on wireless sniffing.
• Behavioral analysis possibilities by detecting “abnormal traffic” in local areas.
  For the bypass side, AI is used in:
• Video re-rendering, audio pitch alteration, and watermark removal models to evade censorship.
• Steganography to embed split videos into images/documents and LoRA translation to create ultra-compressed subtitles.
• Lightweight codecs and distributed recovery for low-power devices to minimize losses during crackdowns.
  For external observation, AI is used in:
• Detecting periodic events or crowd movements through satellite imagery, analyzing traffic and nighttime illumination of power plants.
• Summarizing RF signals and open-source social signals using large language models (LLM) to monitor changes in “exposure frequency.”
  However, there are clear limitations:
• Given the closed nature of the regime, definitive conclusions about internal affairs are impossible; OSINT only increases the probability.
• Both censorship and bypassing sides always face the risk of AI “false/missed detections.”

The Political Economy of Kim Ju-ae’s “Non-Exposure”: Signal Management and Elite Control

Authoritarian regimes manage succession signals through metrics such as appearance frequency, titles, movements, and photo cropping.
Kim Ju-ae’s public exposure serves as an indicator that might hint at potential succession order, yet her “non-exposure” itself may inversely signal an internal realignment phase.
We can consider several possible scenarios:

• Signal Realignment: Temporarily reducing symbolic exposure to foster unity among military and party elites during periods of external tension.
• Factional Balance: Adjusting exposure to counterbalance specific factions.
• Safety/Health Protection: Limitations on appearances under the pretext of protecting minors, regardless of the rumors.
  Market-based indicators include patterns such as state media’s changes in titles (increased/decreased honorific levels), intervals between human interest reports, and whether flag ceremonies or national defense events have accompanying elements.
  While health concerns have arisen periodically in the past, many of them turned out to be misinterpretations.
  Therefore, instead of relying on a single rumor, focus on bundled indicators defined as “reporting patterns + protocol procedures.”

Global Economy and Geopolitical Risks: The 2025 Interest Rate Outlook and Inflation Impact

On a baseline, shocks originating from North Korea have a limited direct impact on global inflation.
However, the risk premium from military events is sensitively reflected in the Korean stock market, the won, and credit spreads.
If the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook enters a phase of easing, risk differentiation within Asia could expand.
As Korea is a global supply chain hub for semiconductors, secondary batteries, shipbuilding, and shipping, a sudden surge in geopolitical risks is likely to cause increases in shipping insurance premiums, freight rates, and cyber security expenditures.
From an investment strategy perspective, during a phase of global economic slowdown, defensive sectors and companies with visible cash flows become crucial.
North Korean issues act as tail risks, impacting option prices, hedging costs, and the relative values between government bonds and credit instruments.

Checklist: Six Methods to Cross-Verify Rumors with Data

• State media call frequency: Weekly trends in Kim Ju-ae’s name and title changes.
• Photo and video metadata: Cropping patterns, companion protocols, seating arrangements.
• Satellite signals: Signs of rehearsals for flag ceremonies, preparations for large-scale gatherings.
• Marketplace prices: Sudden changes in rice prices, fuel prices, or the exchange rate (Won/CNY) may be signals of internal policy shocks.
• Electricity and nighttime illumination: Changes in brightness levels in key regions such as Pyongyang or Siniju.
• Social graphs: Assess the authenticity of identical rumors based on their source, diffusion speed, and linguistic patterns.

Scenario Planning: Base, Upside, and Downside

• Base: Kim Ju-ae’s exposure frequency may show volatility but is maintained as a “symbolic card” without assigning any specific title within the year.
  Market impacts are confined to short-term fluctuations.
• Upside: A relaxing of restrictions on cultural inflow and an increase in unofficial exchanges.
  There is a renewed emphasis on the demand for “global subscription” of Korean content and platforms.
• Downside: An escalation in military tension and a hardening of external messages.
  This may lead to a weakening of the won, increased volatility in the KOSPI, and a modest upward adjustment in short-term inflation expectations.

Key Points Rarely Addressed in Other YouTube Videos or News Reports

• The link between cultural diffusion and commodity prices.
  During periods of intensified crackdowns, if the prices of storage devices like USB sticks rise, fluctuations in marketplace exchange rates (Won/CNY) become more pronounced, and consumer spending shifts from “food” to “information goods.”
  This change indicates a structural shift in internal consumer preferences.
• The cost curve of censorship AI.
  While deep-learning based censorship is initially effective, if bypass technologies evolve more rapidly, the marginal costs can spike.
  This limits sustainability in regimes with tight budget and power constraints.
• Practical OSINT routines.
  By combining the periodicity of satellite imagery with patterns in state media’s usage of titles, the credibility of information can be greatly enhanced compared to mere rumors.

Investment Ideas and Risk Management

• Cybersecurity, geospatial data, and satellite imagery analysis companies will see structural demand growth as geopolitical risks mount.
• In the Korean domestic market, sectors such as insurance, shipping, and defense exhibit high short-term beta, and hedging strategies against won volatility are effective.
• Although semiconductor and AI infrastructure chains show mid-to-long-term strength, increasing the proportion of companies with strong cash flows is prudent during periods of heightened short-term volatility.
• As the interest rate outlook moves into an easing phase, “risk premium normalization” may occur rapidly; therefore, use currency hedges and options to manage tail risk at low costs.

One-Line Guideline: Read Safely and Smartly

• Do not make definitive conclusions about rumors; cross-verify using reporting patterns, price data, and satellite signals.
• In investment strategies, view geopolitical risks from the perspective of probability multiplied by shock magnitude, and prepare hedges proactively.
• While monitoring both inflation and the global economic cycle, prioritize transparent cash flows and valuation cushions.

Editor’s Note

This article is based on publicly available information and analysis, and does not treat unverified claims regarding specific individuals or groups as established facts.
It is limited to the interpretation of information and analysis of economic and AI trends, rather than serving to drive political opinions.

Core SEO Keywords Reflected

Global economy.
Inflation.
Interest rate outlook.
Geopolitical risks.
Investment strategy.

< Summary >

The spread of K-dramas in Pyongyang and the rumors surrounding Kim Ju-ae’s “non-exposure” can be seen as a collision between censorship, circumvention, and elite signal management.
AI is utilized on both sides for censorship and evasion, and cross-verification through OSINT is crucial to improve reliability.
In 2025, while North Korean issues have a limited direct inflationary impact on the global economy, interactions between geopolitical risk premiums and interest rate outlooks increase volatility in Korean assets.
Investment strategies should focus on the growing demand in cybersecurity, geospatial data, defense, insurance, and shipping sectors, while managing tail risks through currency and options hedging.

[Related Articles…]

• The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Interest Rate Outlook and Asset Prices
• Interpreting Internal Changes in North Korea and Investment Points Using AI OSINT

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– 평양에 도는 충격적인 소문 김주애 사라진 진짜 이유 | 아오지누나 3부

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● TPU Coup, Nvidia Collapse

Meta-Google TPU Deal Impact Overview: Nvidia Collapse Theory vs. Data Center Reality, Truth Revealed Through TCO, Networking, and Software Ecosystem

This article extracts and organizes only the key points that have confused the market.
It includes the factual background and interpretation behind the significant drop in Nvidia following the news of Meta’s consideration to purchase Google TPUs.
It unravels the hidden meaning behind the Google TPU designer’s comment, “The market, the hardware, and the demand are misunderstood.”
From the perspective of data centers, it compares GPUs, TPUs, and AMD alternatives within one framework by examining TCO, networking, and software.
It also explains how the global economic factors—such as expectations for lower interest rates and signals of easing inflation—are linked to the AI investment cycle.
It explains the often-overlooked “cluster efficiency,” “developer productivity costs,” and “power and HBM supply chain bottlenecks” with numbers and structures.

Breaking Summary: Nvidia Plummets Amid the Meta-Google TPU News, Yet Demand Remains Unshaken

Nvidia’s stock fell sharply during trading after news broke that Meta is reviewing the adoption of Google TPUs.
While market interpretation focused on “reducing reliance on Nvidia,” actual data center demand remains structurally solid.
A key figure involved in the design of the TPU commented that “this sell-off reveals ignorance of both hardware and demand.”
The key is not a “replacement” but rather “mix-sourcing,” as big tech combines Nvidia, Google TPU, and AMD according to workload to reduce costs and risks.

Fact Check: What Is Confirmed and What Is Interpretation

Meta has been exploring various accelerators to expand its AI infrastructure and has sought to mitigate the risks of relying on a single vendor.
The Google TPU is a dedicated accelerator optimized for Google’s internal model training and inference, and it is being gradually offered in a limited form to external customers.
Nvidia still holds a solid advantage in versatility, ecosystem, and large-scale cluster networking, and it is the primary choice for external customer inference workloads.
The interpretation that “Meta will massively switch to TPUs” may be exaggerated; the realistic scenario is that TPUs will be introduced concurrently as a lever in price negotiations for specific workloads.

AI Chips Across Three Nations: NVIDIA vs. Google TPU vs. AMD – What Differentiates Them and Why Mix Their Use

Performance specifications are just a starting point; in data centers, TCO (total cost of ownership) and cluster efficiency decide the outcome.
Nvidia not only provides powerful GPU performance but also offers rack, pod, and data center level scaling efficiency through NVLink switches, InfiniBand/XDR, and Ethernet stacks.
Google TPUs, with the XLA compiler and optimization for Google workloads, offer high internal training efficiency and are gradually being made available externally through Google Cloud.
AMD’s chips are competitively powerful, and improvements in ROCm and PyTorch optimization are rapidly expanding both training and inference coverage.
In conclusion, big tech prefers platforms that are highly optimized internally for training, while for large-scale external inference and diverse customer workloads, platforms with a broad ecosystem prevail.

Data Center TCO Framework: It’s Not the Price, But the “Result per Unit of Power, Time, and Manpower” That Matters

A low price does not necessarily mean it is good.
One must consider the total time required for training and inference to reach the same target quality on the same model, including power consumption, networking bottlenecks, and developer tuning time.
Cluster efficiency is determined by the GPU-to-GPU bandwidth, NVLink/switch topology, the quality of InfiniBand/Ethernet, and scheduler/compiler optimization.
The software ecosystem encompasses communication libraries such as CUDA, PyTorch, Triton, TensorRT, and NCCL.
The cost of porting is also part of the TCO.
When shifting to JAX/XLA-TPU, the modifications to models/kernels, debugging, and the reorganization of MLOps incur substantial engineering costs and time.
Power and cooling are practical bottlenecks.
In environments with limited power and rack space, the platform that maximizes “performance per watt” and “throughput per area” ultimately wins the TCO battle.
The supply chain for high-bandwidth memory like HBM3E is also decisive.
The supply timing and capacity of SK hynix, Micron, and Samsung directly affect the pace of infrastructure expansion.

Correcting Market Misunderstandings: It’s Not a “Replacement” but an “Adjustment in Composition”

Large customers employ multi-vendor strategies to achieve lower unit costs and supply stability.
Although Nvidia’s market share might decrease somewhat, the absolute demand will remain or increase because the overall AI workload is growing rapidly.
Internal training leverages dedicated platforms like TPUs that are highly optimized, while for external inference and diversified workloads, a combination of GPUs/AMD is deployed.
The crucial point highlighted by the TPU designer is: “The demand for GPUs is still overflowing.”
In other words, it is not a zero-sum situation but rather a “plus-sum” scenario.

The Pitfalls of Performance/Specification Debates: The Scale That Actually Works Is What Matters

Simply comparing different metrics such as FP4, BF16, or sparsity assumptions can lead to misunderstandings.
What matters is the actual time and cost to complete training and inference at the same quality target, and the scaling efficiency in large clusters.
Nvidia reduces scaling losses in ultra-large pipeline/data-parallel training through NVLink switches and the latest InfiniBand, minimizing scaling inefficiencies.
Google TPUs achieve very high efficiency on specific graphs with compiler-based optimizations and excellent suitability for Google workloads.
AMD has strengths in inference TCO with high-capacity HBM and an improved communication stack, leading some customers to expand their adoption for cost-sensitive workloads.

Valuation and Global Economic Variables: The Impact of Interest Rate Cut Expectations on AI CapEx

Signs of easing global inflation and a cooling economy are raising expectations for interest rate cuts.
Expectations for lower interest rates reduce the capital cost for data center expansion and AI facility investments (CapEx), potentially accelerating big tech’s multi-vendor adoption.
Even if Nvidia experiences a slight adjustment in market share, as long as the overall AI infrastructure market expands, its total revenue can continue to grow.
Google, with its full-stack capabilities including TPU, cloud, foundation models, and applications, stands to benefit structurally from an upward cycle.
AMD, with its cost competitiveness and supply expansion, may increase its market share in the inference and hybrid cluster areas.

What Other YouTube Videos and News Outlets Often Overlook as the Most Important Point

Cluster networking makes the real difference.
Even with the same chip, effective throughput can vary by more than 20–40% depending on factors such as NVLink switch topology, the quality of InfiniBand/XDR, and the tuning level of Ethernet RoCE.
Developer productivity costs account for a hidden half of the TCO.
The engineering time required for model porting, kernel tuning, and solving runtime instability can easily offset a few percent reduction in hardware prices.
Power, space, and cooling are the new limiting factors.
In an era where “watt and area allocation” takes precedence over the chip itself, the platform that extracts more tokens from the same power will be the winner.
The supply chain for HBM is crucial.
Once HBM packaging capacity increases in an upcoming quarter, actual cluster deliveries will accelerate, and market shares among vendors will shift accordingly.

Strategic Insights: What Investors and Practitioners Should Check Now

Vendor mix remains constant.
Rather than focusing solely on a reduction in Nvidia’s proportion, look at how the overall AI budget and the strict physical power limits are allocated.
Examine the software roadmap.
The coverage of CUDA, ROCm, and XLA, as well as the official support status of key models, will dictate adoption speed.
Track networking delivery times and HBM supplies.
Delays in cluster deliveries, as the number one cause, can shift the actual revenue recognition timing.
Dividing workloads is key.
Optimally tuning TCO means using highly optimized platforms for internal training and broad-ecosystem platforms for large-scale inference.

Conclusion: Though Shaken, the Throne Is Decided by Data Centers

The stock shock was an overreaction to the news flow, while actual demand continues in a “plus-sum” phase.
For now, Nvidia’s ecosystem, networking, and toolchain remain a complement rather than a replacement, and Google TPU and AMD will play significant roles depending on the workload.
Ultimately, the decisive factor is not the chip itself but the cluster and its TCO.
Big tech reduces costs through a multi-vendor strategy, and as global economic expectations for lower interest rates rise, the momentum for AI data center investments is likely to be sustained.

< Summary >

The Meta-Google TPU issue should be viewed as an expansion of the vendor mix rather than a “replacement” of Nvidia.
It is not specifications but networking, software, porting costs, and power constraints that determine data center TCO.
Nvidia’s advantage lies in its ecosystem and cluster efficiency, Google TPU offers strong internal optimization, and AMD is emerging in cost-sensitive workloads.
As the expectations for interest rate cuts increase in the global economy, AI infrastructure investments are likely to gradually reaccelerate.

[Related Articles…]
Everything About Nvidia Blackwell and Data Center Networking
TPU vs GPU: How to Choose an AI Cluster from a TCO Perspective

*Source: [ 월텍남 – 월스트리트 테크남 ]

– TPU설계 담당자의 일침…엔비디아 이대로 붕괴하나?

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