*Source: https://m.g-enews.com/article/Global-Biz/2025/12/202512010958328817906806b77b_1#_PA

● Bitcoin Crash MSTR Crisis, MSCI Exit Fears, Market Turmoil

Breaking News Analysis｜Bitcoin Plunge·Strategy (MSTR) Crisis·MSCI Delisting Possibility — Key Points, Market Mechanisms, and Investment Strategies at a Glance

The following contents are covered in detail.
The cause of the Bitcoin price plunge and the market’s immediate reaction.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sale signals and the meaning of mNAV (Bitcoin holding value per share).
JPMorgan’s suggested impact of the MSCI index change and the potential scale of passive fund outflows.
Indicators and risk management points that investors and institutions need to check immediately.
And the hidden mechanisms and execution risks that could truly influence the market, which are not well-covered by other news or YouTube, are organized from an independent perspective.

1) Breaking News Summary

Bitcoin has suddenly plunged and is currently trading at around $87,000 per coin.
The trigger for the Bitcoin plunge is related to concerns about Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and JPMorgan’s MSCI investment note.
Michael Saylor, founder and supporter of Strategy, mentioned a ‘green dot’ on X (formerly Twitter), which was interpreted by the market as a ‘sell signal’.
JPMorgan raised the possibility that MSCI might exclude companies holding cryptocurrencies from major indices from January 2026.
JPMorgan estimated that passive fund outflows could reach $2.8 billion to $9.0 billion (note the unit interpretation difference in the article figures of $28 billion to $90 billion).
Not only Bitcoin, but also major cryptocurrency markets such as Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple are experiencing turbulence.

2) Detailed Breakdown of Core Issues

• Strategy (MSTR)·Saylor Related
  Strategy has enhanced corporate value through significant Bitcoin holdings.
  Saylor’s mention of the ‘green dot’ contrasts with the traditional practice of indicating buy times with an orange dot, and some interpret it as a signal of ‘selling’.
  Strategy CEO Phong Le openly stated that Bitcoin could be sold if the mNAV (corporate value/Bitcoin NAV ratio) falls below 1.
  Currently, the mNAV is about 1.13 times, with the premium reduced.

• MSCI Index Issue (Core of Market Shock)
  JPMorgan suggested that MSCI could exclude cryptocurrency-holding companies from the index.
  Exclusion from the index could lead to forced sell orders from passive funds (index-linked ETFs and funds).
  In such cases, the disparity between stock prices and the value of held Bitcoin for Strategy and similar companies could expand, exacerbating liquidity crises.

• Market·Liquidity Connection
  Strategy has raised funds by leveraging stock premiums through stock and convertible bonds (CBs) to purchase Bitcoin.
  If mNAV falls below 1, the low-cost funding route is cut off, increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin being sold to secure liquidity.
  Large-scale Bitcoin sales could further pressure prices in both the spot and derivative markets.

3) Immediate Impact on the Market

• Bitcoin Price
  There is still downward pressure in the short term.
  Large block sales (including OTC) can have a greater impact than the order books in exchanges.

• Cryptocurrency-related Stocks (e.g., MSTR)
  Concerns over MSCI delisting could lead to index-linked funds withdrawing, with stock prices falling and discounts widening.
  If stock prices are discounted against the Bitcoin holding value, existing investors’ anxiety might intensify.

• Overall New York Stock Market and Investor Sentiment
  Expanding risks related to cryptocurrencies can impact the investment sentiment in tech and growth stocks.
  Simultaneously, volatility connected to bonds and rates (10-year) might expand.

4) Practical Checkpoints for Investors (Individual·Institution)

• Immediate Items to Check
  Track changes in mNAV for Bitcoin-holding companies like MSTR.
  Whether MSCI makes an official announcement and its application timeline (noting January 2026 as a possibility in the article).
  Public statements and social signals (tweet patterns) from Saylor and Strategy management.
  Open interest (OI) and trading volume changes in Bitcoin spot and derivatives markets (options and futures).

• Risk Management Actions
  Consider reducing positions or hedging (futures·put options).
  Check tracking error and liquidity risk for ETFs and funds heavily exposed to Bitcoin.
  Monitor OTC and international OTC trades to mitigate order book shocks if large block trades are executed.

5) Economic and Structural Implications Highlighted by JPMorgan

The policy change by MSCI is not just a simple component swap.
Index delisting directly results in automated sales by passive funds, triggering a ‘price-liquidity-funding’ vicious cycle.
Especially for companies holding volatile assets like Bitcoin, the more they rely on stock price premiums, the more vulnerable they are to shocks.
JPMorgan’s note serves as a catalyst for institutional investors to reassess their cryptocurrency exposure.

6) The ‘Most Important’ Hidden Contents Not Well Covered in Other News

• Actual Execution Risk of Block Sales
  Selling large amounts of BTC is not simply released at market prices.
  The capacity of OTC desks and large institutions to take these volumes is limited, and staggered sales might further drop prices.
  Thus, ‘who sells how much and by what route’ determines the magnitude of price shocks.
  Most reports only cover the ‘sell possibility’, without analyzing actual execution feasibility and speed.

• mNAV’s ‘Funding Pipeline’ Vulnerability
  Strategy has funded itself through stock price premiums, which can rapidly vanish depending on market sentiment.
  Once the premium diminishes, the model relying on CB or stock issuance collapses, leading to immediate cash funding pressure.
  The key issue is a financial structural problem beyond just ‘index delisting’.

• Amplification Effect of Derivatives·Options Positioning
  When option positions (put·call skew) and futures rollover demand shifts rapidly, market makers’ hedging trades could amplify price volatility.
  This is a mechanism that can shake prices without actually selling the held assets.

7) Short-term·Medium-term Investment Strategy Proposals

• Short-term (Few Weeks)
  Focus on defending positions.
  Those holding related stocks like MSTR should monitor mNAV, disclosures, and index announcement schedules.
  Spot Bitcoin holders should consider liquidity securing, partial profit-taking, and hedging.

• Medium-term (Few Months)
  Rebalance portfolios considering MSCI decisions and execution schedules.
  Consider diversifying into blockchain infrastructure companies and regulatory and custody service providers rather than direct cryptocurrency investments.

• Alternative·Risk Hedge
  Consider put hedging through options or using volatility products (similar to VIX).
  Adopt a defensive position by increasing the proportion of cash and short-term bonds.

8) Macro·Market Context — Connection with Federal Reserve Issues

It was observed that the 10-year bond yield fell due to Kevin Hassett (White House NEC chairman) mentioning potential nominations for the next Fed chair.
Changes in rate and monetary policy expectations immediately alter risk asset preferences (risk-on/off).
Therefore, the volatility in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets is closely linked to the rate and policy expectations of the broader global financial markets (including the New York Stock Exchange), not just within the asset class.

9) Connection with AI Trends (Investment Portfolio Perspective)

If cryptocurrency risks prompt short-term capital reallocation, some investors might accelerate moving funds to AI-, semiconductor-, and cloud-related stocks (e.g., Nvidia).
The AI trend as a long-term growth driver remains robust, so investors might consider partially hedging the temporary cryptocurrency shock by investing in the AI sector.
However, since the AI sector also carries valuation risks, diversification and rebalancing are essential.

10) Checklist — 8 Key Indicators to Monitor Immediately

1) MSCI official notices and patch notes.
2) mNAV and stock price premium/discount of MSTR and similar companies.
3) Social and disclosure signals from key figures like Saylor and Strategy.
4) Bitcoin spot trading volume and large block trade (OTC) reports.
5) Open interest and skew (asymmetry) in derivative markets (futures and options).
6) Trends in fund inflows and outflows in related ETFs and indices.
7) Notices from international regulators and exchanges (custody and clearing related).
8) Global interest rates (especially US 10-year) and dollar movements.

< Summary >
The plunge in Bitcoin is not merely a price correction.
The sale signal from Strategy and JPMorgan’s MSCI delisting possibility can create a chain reaction of passive fund outflows, funding vulnerabilities, and liquidity deterioration.
The key focuses are ‘who sells how much by what route’ and the trend of mNAV.
Investors should prioritize checking MSCI announcements, mNAV, large block trades, and derivative market positions, and manage risks through hedging, position reduction, and sector diversification (e.g., AI, semiconductors) when necessary.

[Related Articles…]
Analysis of Bitcoin Plunge Causes
Impact of MSCI Index Revision on Stock Markets

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