● Won Meltdown, 1600 Looms

Seven Reasons Why the Won Is Structurally Weak, the ‘Exchange Rate 1600 Won’ Scenario, and the 2025 Investment Portfolio Roadmap

Right now, this article covers everything: the triggers and guardrails behind the possibility of a 1600 won exchange rate, the long-term structure created by demographics, supply-demand, and investment flows, the constant demand for dollars triggered by AI capital expenditures and energy imports, the method for designing dollar assets centered on pension accounts, alternatives to covered calls, and checklists of actions for the short, medium, and long term.

News in One Line Summary

• The key to the exchange rate outlook lies not in a stronger dollar but in a structurally weaker won.
• Due to the demographic cliff, net overseas investment outflows, the expansion of foreign assets by the National Pension Service, and dollar-denominated payments for energy, defense, and semiconductor equipment, the demand for dollars has permanently increased.
• Viewing it within a band of ±150 won around 1450 won suggests that 1600 won is closer than 1300 won.
• A long-term portfolio strategy favors increasing the dollar asset allocation in pension savings and IRP, and designing cash flow with a combination of high-quality US bonds, global equities, and REITs instead of relying on covered calls.
• Increased investment in AI data centers and rising electricity demand are hidden factors that reinforce the pressure on the won through LNG and other energy imports.

1) Reasons It’s a Weak Won Structure, Not a Strong Dollar

• Demographic Shock.
  A sharp drop in birthrates and a shrinking working-age population lower potential growth, which in turn leads to a lower long-term expected yield on the currency and attaches a structural weakness premium to the won.
• Pre-reflection of Declining Potential Growth.
  As domestic research institutes expand their forecasts of a declining long-term potential growth rate, a structural discount is reflected in the exchange rate.
• Account Migration and Net Overseas Investment Outflows.
  From Korean retail investors buying US stocks and ETF funds flowing out, to an increased overseas allocation in the National Pension Service, the demand for dollars has become a permanent aspect of portfolio investments.
• Trade Structure and Services Balance.
  Exports centered on semiconductors and intermediate goods are highly cyclical, and the frequent deficits in services—such as tourism and intellectual property—make it easy for the won’s supply to weaken.
• Policy Rates and Hedge Costs.
  If US interest rates remain high for an extended period, the opportunity cost of holding won increases, and the cost of hedging currency exposure diminishes the attractiveness of won investments.
• Dollar Dependence in Corporate and Government Payments.
  Key strategic items such as LNG, grains, defense, and semiconductor equipment are settled in dollars, which structurally increases dollar demand.
• Position in the Value Chain.
  Korea is situated in the middle of the value chain compared to the US, which leads to a long-term tendency for a lower currency premium.

2) The 1600 Won Exchange Rate Scenario: Triggers and Guardrails

• Upside Triggers.
  The deterioration of terms of trade deepens with rising commodity prices, such as crude oil surpassing 100 dollars.
  Continued higher and prolonged US interest rates and global dollar liquidity tightening persist.
  Portfolio rebalancing towards overseas assets accelerates amid domestic risky asset adjustments.
  Geopolitical risks drive a flight to safety, pushing investors toward the dollar.
  Expansion in AI data center investments boosts dollar demand through payments for semiconductor equipment, GPUs, and energy imports.
• Downside Guardrails.
  A clear cycle of US interest rate cuts and a confirmed decline in the US Dollar Index.
  A robust export cycle driven by a recovery in the semiconductor sector and rebounding demand from China and ASEAN countries.
  Improvements in the current account surplus across goods, services, and primary income.
  Fine-tuned market stabilization measures and supply-demand balancing actions by the Bank of Korea and planning authorities.

3) Japan’s Yen Carry vs. Korea’s Won Carry

• Similarities.
  Both countries face long-term currency weakness premiums due to stagnant growth and an aging population.
  Domestic investment unattractiveness has structurally fostered a preference for overseas assets.
• Differences.
  Japan’s traditional carry trade is based on ultra-low interest rates, while in Korea, growth and supply-demand factors outweigh the interest rate gap.
  Korean won carry is a complex carry, incorporating not only the bond yield differential but also expectations of stock returns and currency gains or losses.
• Implications.
  The won cannot be explained solely by absolute interest rates; the growth narrative and capital balance flows must also be considered.

4) The Hidden Pathways of How the AI Trend Impacts the Exchange Rate

• AI CapEx Super Cycle.
  Investments in data centers, cloud, and GPUs in the US draw global economic and capital flows.
  Even in periods without a strong dollar, expectations of higher productivity and relative returns on US stocks build pressure on the won.
• Energy and Electricity.
  If AI drives a significant surge in electricity demand, imports of LNG, LPG, crude oil, and other energies will increase, and dollar payments will become routine.
  This consistently supports dollar demand in Korea, regardless of global economic fluctuations.
• Dual Effects in the Supply Chain.
  While a booming memory and HBM market is positive for exports, at the same time, dollar-denominated payments for GPUs, equipment imports, and raw materials counterbalance this effect by boosting dollar demand.

5) A Numerical Judgment Frame: 1450 Won ± 150 Won

• When the market is uncertain, range-based assessments are useful.
  Adding 150 to 1450 yields 1600 won, and subtracting 150 results in 1300 won.
  Considering the current global economic, interest rate, and supply-demand conditions, the interpretation that 1600 won is more likely than 1300 won is reasonable.
  It is better to approach this with a “band and probability” framework rather than an absolute point forecast.

6) Long-Term Portfolio Roadmap: A Dollar-Centric Strategy Centered on Pension Accounts

• Basic Principles.
  Reflecting the structural changes in the global economy, core assets should be held in dollars, with the benefits of tax-advantaged accounts compounding returns.

• Priority of Accounts.
  Prioritize pension savings and IRP by contributing up to 18 million KRW per year to enjoy tax deferral benefits.
  Diversify within the accounts using US ETFs, US bond ETFs, and global REIT ETFs.

• Example of Potential Returns.
  Assuming an annual contribution of 18 million KRW over 20 years with a conservative 8% return, about 830 million KRW in assets could be accumulated.
  If the won depreciates by an average of just 1–2% per year, the realized return might rise to between 9% and 10%.
  Returns are subject to fluctuation, and the examples do not guarantee future performance in the same way that past performance cannot.

• Asset Allocation Guide.
  Global equities 60–70% (with a greater proportion of US tech stocks and some dispersion in China, India, and Southeast Asia).
  Dollar-denominated government bonds and short-term bonds 15–25% (a key hedge in an interest rate decline phase).
  Global REITs 10–20% (focusing on cash flow and high-quality assets, not on covered calls).
  Domestic equities 10–20% (targeting sectors that structurally benefit such as semiconductors, electricity, data centers, and defense).

• Rebalancing Rule.
  Rebalance automatically once a year if any allocation deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the target.

• Currency Hedge Principles.
  For investment durations of 10 years or more, a partial unhedged position of 50–100% is the basic approach, while those sensitive to short-term volatility should adjust with some hedged ETFs.

• Cash Flow Design.
  Rather than overly relying on covered call products, combine dividend stocks, REITs, and high-quality bonds to create a distribution structure on a quarterly or monthly basis.

7) Execution Checklist: Immediate Actions

• Account Setup.
  Set up pension savings and IRP accounts and fix contributions through automatic transfers.
• Foreign Currency Cash Management.
  Create a liquidity bucket with foreign currency MMFs, dollar repurchase agreements, or short-term US bond ETFs.
• Currency Exchange Strategy.
  Utilize staggered exchanges and favorable exchange rate terms, and adjust allocations flexibly during sharp declines or surges in the exchange rate.
• Product Selection.
  Simplify your choice with a “three-step” strategy using a total US market ETF, a quality/income factor ETF, and a US bond/REIT ETF.
• Risk Management.
  For individual high dividend products with yields around 13–14%, carefully check for volatility in the principal and distribution fluctuations.
  Maintain diversification, regular rebalancing, and a cash buffer equivalent to 6–12 months.

8) Strategies for the Short-Term (3–6 Months), Medium-Term (1–3 Years), and Long-Term (10+ Years)

• Short-Term.
  In the 1400 won range, gradually increase the dollar asset allocation through staggered purchases.
  Consider tactically increasing the allocation to domestic themes such as semiconductors, electricity, defense, and data center REITs.
• Medium-Term.
  Rather than timing US interest rate cuts, focus on the speed and magnitude of changes and gradually extend the duration of US bonds.
  Reassess the allocation to domestic equities if the recovery in the semiconductor sector gains strength.
• Long-Term.
  Maintain the dollar core centered on pension accounts, and absorb excess volatility through rebalancing as the global economic cycle evolves.

9) Clearing Up Misconceptions and Risk Warnings

• Purchasing overseas stocks falls under the portfolio investment outflows of the capital and financial accounts, not the services balance.
• While a 14% dividend REIT is possible, it comes with correspondingly high risks.
  You must individually examine factors such as rental, leverage, currency risk, and distribution policies.
• Covered calls are effective for mitigating losses in a down market, but they can limit upside recovery and potentially erode distributions during prolonged uptrends.
• Given the high short-term volatility of exchange rates, rather than timing bets, a strategy based on bands, staggered entries, and rebalancing is more effective.

10) Key Points Not Frequently Covered by Other YouTube Channels or News Outlets

• Increased electricity demand due to AI is structurally boosting dollar demand through energy imports.
• Dollar-denominated payments for GPU and semiconductor equipment offset some of the positive effects of a booming memory market.
• The won premium is determined jointly by growth expectations, position in the value chain, and capital flows—it cannot be explained solely by interest rate differentials.
• The simultaneous “globalization” of individuals, pension funds, and corporate funds is cumulatively pushing the exchange rate upward.
• A dollar core held in tax-advantaged accounts improves risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) beyond simple yield comparisons, making it more structurally efficient compared to a single-currency domestic portfolio.

Conclusion: The Structure of a Weak Won Is Long-Term, and Portfolios Should Be Simple, Tax-Advantaged, and Dollar Core

• Considering the uncertainties in the global economy, re-pricing of inflation costs, persistently high interest rate peaks, and capital demand driven by AI, the structural forces behind a weak won are strong.
• An exchange rate of 1600 won is not a “base scenario” but the upper end of a significant probability band that should be continuously monitored.
• The optimal long-term asset design lies in a dollar core held in pension accounts, combined with diversification, rebalancing, and improvements in the quality of cash flow.
• Make investment decisions independently, but keep the structure as simple as possible for longevity.

< Summary >

• The weakness of the won is a structural phenomenon driven by demographics, growth, and supply-demand factors.
• Within a frame of 1450 won ± 150 won, the likelihood of 1600 won is higher than that of 1300 won.
• AI capital expenditures and energy imports continuously boost the demand for dollars.
• Use pension savings and IRP to build a core dollar allocation, diversify with stocks, dollar bonds, and REITs.
• Avoid overreliance on covered calls, and use staggered entries, band strategies, and rebalancing to absorb exchange rate fluctuations.

[Related Posts…]

• 2025 Exchange Rate Outlook and Key Checkpoints of the Dollar Cycle
• Economic Impacts of AI Data Center Investments and Energy Demand

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 달러 강세가 아니라 원화 약���다. “환율 1600원 가능성, 왜 현실이 되는가” 인구·투자·수급이 만든 장기 환율 시나리오 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 채상욱 대표 2편

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● Clean Slate Craze Sparks Legaltech Gold Rush

Generation Z Graduation Gift Top Pick: ‘Record Deletion’? The Rise of Legal Economy and the Impact of AI & Fintech

Key Points to Catch in Today’s Article

It explains with actual figures why “adding certificates” is less important in the employment market than “removing past records.”
It analyzes why the subscription model in legal tech is becoming the next growth driver in SaaS, revealing the secrets behind its revenue structure and margins.
It provides an in-depth analysis beyond the news on the “data re-accumulation” issue involving AI recruitment, data brokers, and search de-indexing.
It presents scenarios detailing how global economic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and labor market cycles affect the demand for record deletion.
It explains everything from the spread of Clean Slate (automatic record deletion) laws, corporate compliance risks, to changes in fintech credit rating methods.

What’s Happening: News Summary

70 million American adults have criminal records, and statistics show that one in every three adults is affected, underpinning the market.
92% of American companies conduct background checks in the recruitment stage, and even a minor offense can frequently lead to automatic disqualification.
Records play a decisive role in job applications, renting, student loans, immigration, and visas, with research citing that a lifetime income gap of up to $500,000 can result.
The industry that fills this gap is “record deletion (Expungement/Sealing),” which organizes the exposure of records across court, state, private databases, and search results through legal procedures.
Prices range from a basic online fee of $500 to about $3,000 when hiring an attorney, marking a significant accessibility gap based on income.
Leading legal tech platform LegalZoom shows solid performance with annual revenue of approximately $679 million and an operating profit margin of 22%, shifting from one-off deletions to a monthly subscription of $29.99.
Clean Slate laws have been introduced in states such as Pennsylvania, Utah, and Michigan, and studies indicate that 99% of those who had their records deleted did not commit any felonies within five years, which is seen as a positive sign.
Among Generation Z, the “expungement check” before graduation is spreading like a new norm, with related tips going viral on TikTok and Reddit.

Legal Economy in Numbers: Market Sketch

A simple multiplication of the potential consumer base of 70 million with an average ticket price of $500–$3,000 forms a huge total addressable market (TAM).
Even with a conservative utilization rate of just 10%, the cumulative sales potential over several years can be estimated to reach hundreds of billions of dollars.
If the subscription conversion rate is only 20%, each customer would generate around $360 in annual recurring revenue based on the $29.99 monthly fee, supported by automation in legal document processing that sustains margins.
With over 8,000 data brokers, there is a structural need for “continuous monitoring” demand rather than one-time deletion, which is why the subscription model is highly designed for retention.

AI & Data Perspective: Why This is a Turning Point

In the era of AI recruitment, automated background screening and ranking algorithms amplify the disadvantages of record exposure.
The rapid crawling and synchronization cycles of data brokers lead to a “data re-accumulation” problem where deleted records reappear through other channels.
The workflow—from search de-indexing, executing court orders, broker API deletion requests, to detecting record re-entry—is optimized for LLM/agent-based automation.
As privacy enhancement technologies (PETs), decentralized identity (DID), and verifiable credentials (VC) spread, a “minimum disclosure–maximum verification” process in hiring and renting becomes possible.
From an AI governance perspective, as regulations on fairness and explainability tighten, companies will be required to update their models reflecting deletion requests and to manage logs as a necessity.

The Impact on Generation Z Consumers & Labor Market

In an environment of economic slowdown and inflation, as job competition intensifies, expenditures to improve even a 1% chance become more common, making record deletion a preferred option.
In terms of labor market signals, removing “past risks” is directly related to recovering wage premiums and enhancing job mobility, with subscription-based legal protection becoming part of consumer expenditure like welfare.
In major cities’ competitive rental markets, a “clean record” is reflected in monthly rent or deposit conditions, thereby affecting the tangible impact of living cost inflation.

Regulatory & Policy Checkpoints

In the U.S., due to the absence of a comprehensive federal privacy law, regulations such as Clean Slate, record deletion, and fair employment practices are fragmented across states.
Europe’s “Right to be Forgotten” raises the standard for de-indexing strategies of global platforms, indirectly pressuring American big tech companies.
Companies must establish internal controls with compliance maps by state, response SLAs, data broker lists, and re-entry detection systems.
Failure to execute court orders, not reflecting deletion requests, or the discriminatory impact of biased algorithms could escalate into class-action lawsuit risks.

Investment Perspective: Opportunities and Risks

Platforms: Legal tech SaaS companies benefiting from cost reduction in customer acquisition (CAC) through document automation, workflow, and evidence management will see structural gains.
Data Remediation: A “clean data operating system” that standardizes broker map updates, deletion evidence storage, and re-entry alerts is emerging as a new growth driver.
Background Check Companies: As regulatory and litigation costs rise, mergers/restructuring will accelerate, and internalizing compliance functions may reduce valuation discounts.
Fintech/Underwriting: There is no standard for modeling “deleted pasts,” so scoring strategies need to be redesigned in light of explainability requirements.
Risks: In a sharp economic downturn, customer subscription cancellations may increase, and in a rising interest rate environment, both customer acquisition costs and legal wages could pose dual burdens.

Deep Dive: Key Points Missing from Other YouTube or News Outlets

Structural Cause of Data Re-accumulation: Due to inconsistent synchronization cycles among courts, states, platforms, and brokers, records deleted in one place can reappear in other caches/backups.
Because of this issue, “continuous monitoring, evidence collection, and re-request” have become essentials, making the subscription model highly advantageous.
The Need for Model Clean Rooms: In cases where recruitment or lending models are affected by historical data, a “model memory” issue persists even after deletion, leading to residual biases.
Therefore, simultaneous data set retraining, feature pipeline recalibration, and model card updates are required for true deletion effect.
Macro Sensitivity: In a scenario of global economic slowdown, entrenched interest rates, and prolonged inflation, job seekers become more sensitive to “expenditure to improve probability,” increasing the elasticity of deletion demand.
From a corporate perspective, along with the cycle of layoffs and efficient recruitment, reliance on automated screening rises, which magnifies the risk of not reflecting deletions.

Practical Checklist (For Companies & Individuals)

Corporate HR/Compliance: Document an end-to-end playbook for receiving deletion requests, verification, propagation, broker deletion, search de-indexing, and model retraining.
Data Broker Management: Regularly check the vendor list, deletion clauses in contracts, KPIs for re-entry monitoring, and quarterly evidence reports.
AI Governance: Quantify the impact of deletion requests on model performance and fairness, and store reproducible logs in an audit-friendly format.
Individual Users: Compare state-specific requirements, the scope of deletion (Expungement vs. Sealing), and differences in cost and duration, and consider continuous re-entry monitoring even after receiving final notifications.

12–24 Month Outlook Scenarios

Base Scenario: With the spread of Clean Slate-like laws, an increase in legal tech subscription market share, and strengthened regulation of data brokers, the market will grow steadily.
Bullish Scenario: Prolonged labor market tightening and accelerated digital transformation will greatly increase the demand for deletion and monitoring, driven by higher dependency on automated screening.
Bearish Scenario: If economic recovery eases job search pressures and falling interest rates lead to an increase in legal service options, heightened price competition could compress margins.

Keyword Map (SEO)

Centered on keywords such as global economy, interest rates, inflation, labor market, and digital transformation, it connects legal tech, AI recruitment, data brokers, Clean Slate, and fintech underwriting.
These keywords are naturally embedded throughout the text to enhance search visibility.

Conclusion

Erasing traces of the past is now an “operational” issue that intertwines legal technology, data deletion, and AI governance.
The shift among Generation Z towards record deletion as a graduation gift is not a matter of sentiment but a calculated decision based on probability and economic rationale.
The more unstable the economy becomes, the higher the return on investment from “removing past risks,” and this market is likely to solidify through a subscription model.

< Summary >

70 million American adults’ record issues and 92% of companies’ background checks are driving the demand for legal tech.
LegalZoom is transitioning from one-off deletions to a monthly subscription of $29.99 while securing a 22% operating margin.
The issue of data re-accumulation makes “continuous monitoring” fundamental, favoring the subscription model.
The simultaneous implementation of Clean Slate laws, changes in AI recruitment, and fintech underwriting is underway.
Economic cycles involving interest rates, inflation, and labor market trends increase the elasticity of demand.

[Related Articles…]
In the Era of AI Recruitment: How Background Checks and Data Privacy are Transforming the Labor Market
Clean Slate Law and the Future of Fintech: Credit Rating Innovation and Risks

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 명품 가방 대신 ‘기록 삭제’, Z세대 졸업 선물 1순위? | 매일뉴욕 스페셜 | 홍성용 특파원

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● KOSDAQ Rally, Japan Chip Clampdown, Packaging Shortage

KOSDAQ Major Reversal Signals: 3 Signals and the Semiconductor ‘Flower Parade’ Scenario: A 2025 Stock Market Checkpoint Where Policy, Supply, and AI Upscycle Intersect

The announcement to revitalize the KOSDAQ by the government, Japan’s tightening of semiconductor equipment exports to China, and the simultaneous upcycle in memory and foundry sectors all converge at one point.
This article includes actual supply-demand turning points where money is moving, exchange rate variables, and even bottlenecks such as HBM packaging and power/cooling that are rarely discussed.
It also summarizes the global economic trends, interest rate outlook, the path for easing inflation, and strategies for responding to various levels of the Korean won exchange rate all at once.

News Highlight Summary

• “It feels eerily similar to 8 years ago.” Signs of a revival reminiscent of the KOSDAQ policy drive of 2017-2018 have emerged. This time too, after the policy announcement in late November, supply-demand may become a catalyst in the next one to three months.
• With Japan’s export restrictions on semiconductor equipment to China, China’s fab expansion and upgrades are delayed. Korean semiconductors are expected to benefit by reflection in both foundry and memory sectors.
• Expectations for Samsung Electronics’ foundry are expanding. Tesla-related orders in automotive electronics and robotics, along with AI server demand, act as simultaneous boosters.
• Both memory (HBM and DDR5) and NAND are tightening. After inventory normalization, the price improvement cycle will accelerate.
• Sector positioning: Bio, robotics, materials/parts/equipment (SoBuJang), the foundry ecosystem, and AI infrastructure (power/cooling) are likely to see cyclical strength.

1) Déjà Vu from 8 Years Ago: The Reenactment of ‘Policy → Supply → Momentum’

From late 2017 to early 2018, the KOSDAQ enjoyed a significant rally for one to three months following the government’s announcement to revitalize the market.
This time as well, the KOSDAQ revitalization package was announced in late November, and the institutional changes will impact credit, public offerings, secondary supply, and institutional rebalancing.
The policy signal comes first, and it is highly likely that foreigners, institutions, and individuals will each follow up with their own pace of chasing purchases.
A key differentiator in this cycle is that AI server investments and foundry orders are already secured as actual orders.
Therefore, if policy momentum overlaps with earnings momentum, the resilience could last even longer than in the past.

2) Japan→China Export Controls and Korea’s Reflex Beneficiary Channel

Due to Japan’s strengthening of export controls on semiconductor equipment to China, upgrades to advanced processes in China are delayed.
Chinese fabs face constraints in optimizing operating rates due to equipment lead times and certification issues.
This gap is filled by orders shifting to Korean and Taiwanese foundries and memory companies, or by global customers increasing their multi-sourcing ratios toward Korea.
Korea’s channels of benefit unfold in two ways. There is an increase in outsourced foundry production and an improvement in memory (HBM, DDR5, NAND) prices/volumes.
In particular, with AI chips, the value chain of advanced packaging and materials/parts/equipment expands together, and domestic SoBuJang demand also rises concurrently.

3) Simultaneous Upcycle in Memory and Foundry: The Current Position of Demand and Supply

A DRAM upcycle centered on HBM is underway, and the rising transition rate to server DDR5 has created a stable demand floor.
NAND prices rebound after inventory normalization, supported by the margin from the transition to QLC and enterprise SSDs.
In foundries, demand remains robust for AI accelerators, automotive MCUs/SoCs, and power semiconductors (Ga2O3, SiC).
The issue, however, lies in the bottlenecks. Advanced packaging (CoWoS, I-Cube/X-Cube), ABF substrates, and tester capacities remain tight.
In these bottleneck segments, pricing power emerges, and related SoBuJang and packaging ecosystems experience spot strength.

4) Tesla Momentum and the Ripple of Robotics/Automotive Electronics Demand

Centered around Tesla, orders in automotive electronics, robotics, and vision computing are increasing, allowing domestic parts, sensor, and module companies to secure references.
The supply chain broadly covers automotive semiconductors, camera modules, LiDAR/ultrasonic sensors, actuators, reducers, and cable harnesses.
This flow leads to expanded demand in foundry IP/libraries, DFT/verification tools, and packaging test capacities.

5) The ‘Two Pillars’ of This Era: The Memory Champion + The Core of the Foundry Ecosystem

Unlike previous cycles, rather than an all-in on one stock, it is advantageous to view the memory champion and the core of the foundry ecosystem as a ‘twin-engine’ strategy.
The memory champion is supported by price/mix improvements and AI server expansions, while the foundry ecosystem is driven by customer diversification and capacity expansion in advanced packaging.
Both pillars see improved cash flow, so approaching them separately during adjustments is reasonable.

6) Strategic Sector Map: The KOSDAQ Revitalization Beneficiary Lineup

• Bio: Regulatory easing, technology transfer, and the PDUFA event calendar operate concurrently. Companies with confirmed fundamentals, particularly those in late-stage clinical trials and revenue-generating CMO/CDMOs, are advantageous.
• Robotics: Demand expands sequentially from industrial to collaborative and then service robots. Key parts players in reducers, motors, controllers, and 3D vision are strong in the early phase.
• SoBuJang (Materials/Parts/Equipment): The chain upside is evident in EUV photoresists, ALD/CVD precursors, advanced packaging chemicals, cleaning/etching equipment, test handlers, and ABF substrates in that order.
• Foundry Ecosystem: Segments including design IP, test/DFT, OSAT, and advanced packaging will benefit from tight capacity constraints.
• AI Infrastructure: Hidden alphas lie in data center power connections, distribution equipment, cooling (immersion/cooling water loops), racks, and cables, where ‘power and cooling’ are key.

7) Macro Alignment: Global Economy, Interest Rate Outlook, and Exchange Rate Frame

The global economy faces a crossroad with slowing growth in the United States and a gradual recovery in Europe, while large-scale IT investments (CapEx) continue.
The interest rate outlook emphasizes that “the path is more important than the speed of the cut.” Gradual cuts rather than overly rapid ones are favorable for stabilizing valuations.
Although inflation is expected to follow a mid-term downward path aided by inventory normalization and easing rent growth, caution is needed for upward risks from energy and wage increases.
The exchange rate is assumed to remain in a box between the high 1,200s and low 1,300s, and if the won strengthens, active and passive foreign inflows could intensify.
In a declining exchange rate phase, one should consider domestic growth stocks, and in a rising exchange rate phase, focus on export stocks to defend margins.

8) Timing Guide: The Lag in Policy Momentum

Immediately after the policy announcement for 2 weeks: This is a period of expectation pricing with high theme volatility. A strategy of waiting to buy in portions at the low is effective.
One to three months after the announcement: A genuine rally phase appears as fundamentals such as performance and order news overlap with institutional rebalancing. Selecting stocks with accompanying fundamentals is important.
Three to six months after the announcement: Valuation pressures build. Even within the upcycle, concentrate on stocks with capacity expansions and pricing power.

9) Risk Checklist

• Interest Rates: If cuts are slower than expected or if rates rebound, growth stock valuations may need adjustment. Duration management is necessary.
• Inflation: If services and wages remain sticky, multiple expansions will be limited. Also, check for risks associated with a surge in energy prices.
• Exchange Rate: In the event of a renewed dollar strength, foreign investor supply may turn adverse. Employ hedging strategies concurrently.
• Geopolitics: Fluctuating volatility in the US-China-Japan technology hegemony and export controls could expand.
• Bottlenecks: If HBM packaging, testing, or ABF capacities are not resolved in time, shipments could be delayed.

10) The ‘Most Important Content’ Rarely Mentioned Elsewhere

HBM is not solely a memory issue. Advanced packaging and testing, ABF substrates, and the power/cooling infrastructure must all progress simultaneously for shipments to be dispatched.
Therefore, the true alpha in this upcycle lies at the intersection of ‘packaging, testing, and power/cooling.’
If the won exchange rate stabilizes below 1,280 won, both passive and active foreign flows could strengthen at the same time, and at that moment, the KOSDAQ’s perceived rally could be larger compared to the KOSPI.
While policy momentum may lead to themes, to capture earnings momentum, one must also monitor tangible indicators such as power inputs, immersion cooling, and OSAT capacity expansions.
In conclusion, in addition to the memory champion and the core of the foundry ecosystem, adopting a strategy that incorporates ‘power, cooling, and packaging’ infrastructure as a third pillar increases the probability of success.

11) Portfolio Management Guide

Core 50%: Memory champion + Foundry ecosystem (advanced packaging, OSAT, IP/DFT, testing).
Growth 30%: Robotics, automotive electronics, AI infrastructure (power, cooling).
Options 20%: Bio (late-stage clinical/revenue-generating), SoBuJang (photoresist, precursors, cleaning/etching, handlers, ABF).
Rebalancing: Expand growth weights and increase holdings when the won stabilizes downward below 1,280 won; if it rises above 1,320 won, consider increasing proportions in export blue-chip stocks, cash, and hedging.

12) Checklist: Data to Actually Watch

• Detailed follow-up policies related to the domestic KOSDAQ and changes in institutional inclusion rules.
• Capacity and order comments from Samsung Foundry/Memory and lead times for AI customers in packaging.
• Quarterly price trends and inventory days for HBM, DDR5, and NAND.
• News flow on power inputs and cooling facility orders at data centers.
• U.S. CPI, PCE, wage indicators, and Fed dot plots for the interest rate outlook.
• The won/dollar exchange rate levels and foreign investor spot/futures positions.

< Summary >

• The late November KOSDAQ revitalization announcement makes a supply-demand rally in 1–3 months highly likely.
• With Japan’s export restrictions on major equipment affecting China’s fabs, Korean semiconductors are expected to benefit by reflection.
• The simultaneous upcycle in memory and foundry hinges on bottlenecks in HBM packaging, testing, and power/cooling.
• A strategy that focuses on three pillars—memory champion, foundry ecosystem, and AI infrastructure (power, cooling)—is effective.
• It is recommended to monitor global economic trends, interest rate outlook, inflation, and exchange rate variables while rebalancing gradually.

[Related Articles…]

• Revitalization Policy for the KOSDAQ and Its Triple Effect on Supply-Demand
• HBM Packaging Bottlenecks and the Hidden Alpha of Korean Semiconductors

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– 8년전과 소름돋게 똑같다. 이 주식 2개 미친듯 오른다 | 김지훈 대표 1부

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