● Trump Tax Boost Sparks Consumer Frenzy, AI Hype Collapses

Trump’s Core Line “Main Street All-in” Signal, Is It the Timing for 2026 Market Leaders to Shift from AI to Consumer and Economic Recovery Stocks?

This article encapsulates the 2026 US economic recovery roadmap, stock market leading rotation points, beneficiary stocks in the consumer, travel, retail, and advertising platforms, insider buying big signals, the post-FOMC rate cut path, and portfolio strategy—all in one. It concisely organizes details that are rarely mentioned elsewhere, such as the “policy → household cash flow → advertising/travel/retail compound benefit structure” and even the changes in the profit structure of airlines. It unravels the real impacts on investments with examples of the dilemma between easing inflation and rate cuts in the global economic environment.

News Briefing: Key Figures, Key Messages, Key Scenarios

– Comments from two of Trump’s closest aides are increasingly reinforcing this outlook. – Point 1: There is repeated expression of confidence that from early 2026, a real economy-focused recovery will make “Main Street have a fantastic year.” – Point 2: A 3% growth is disappointing, and even 4% growth is portrayed as a possibility, heralding a V-shaped rebound. – Point 3: An approach that directly lowers the consumer’s felt price by boosting household cash flow through tax cuts, tax refunds, and deregulation (e.g., easing automotive fuel efficiency standards, encouraging the production of mini cars) is being emphasized. – Point 4: Should this scenario materialize, there is a high probability that the market leadership will rotate from an AI-dominated landscape to one led by consumer and economic recovery stocks. – Note: Until policies and appointments are officially confirmed, this scenario should be regarded as speculative, and the intensity of the messages serves as an early indicator of “intent and priorities.”

Key Points Summarized in News Style

1) Policy focus shift: The priority is on Main Street and real economy stimulus rather than Wall Street. 2) Economic recovery transmission route: From tax cuts → tax refunds/rebates → consumption recovery → reactivation of travel, retail, and advertising. 3) Leading stock rotation: It is highly likely that the focus will shift from a single AI theme to a diversified portfolio including retail, airlines, travel, energy, and legacy semiconductors. 4) Rate cut dilemma: As economic recovery expectations stimulate a rebound in long-term rates, liquidity-sensitive stocks might suffer while cyclically sensitive stocks could benefit. 5) Data contrarian: Consumer sentiment indices have repeatedly shown improvement in returns over the following 6–12 months, coming off historical lows.

The Logic Behind the Leading Stock Change: From AI Dominance to a Synergistic Economic Recovery Rally

Over the past two years, AI has driven the stock market, while consumer and cyclically sensitive stocks lagged behind in a K-shaped divergence. If policies focus on the real economy, the sectors with high economic beta such as retail, travel, airlines, and advertising platforms will be the first to react at the onset of recovery. Once signals of a bottom recovery are observed even among raw materials (like copper), energy, and the traditional semiconductor cycle, the rotation will accelerate. As global capital flows shift from “liquidity expectation stocks” to “economic recovery stocks with clear cash flow visibility,” the valuation gap will narrow.

Sector/Stock Checklist: Beneficiaries of Consumer Recovery

– Large-scale retail/discount stores: Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Walmart, etc., are likely to see simultaneous recovery in traffic and influx of price-sensitive customers. – Apparel/Fashion: American Eagle, Victoria’s Secret, etc., can experience a significant turnaround once inventory normalizes and margins recover. – Beauty/Cosmetics: Given the nature of the category, “small luxury” demand can bounce back quickly as income improves. – Airlines: Delta, Southwest can see leveraged benefits when booking reopenings and an improved mix in premium seating result in a rise in PRASM. – Travel platforms: Booking Holdings, Expedia benefit directly from the recovery in total booking value reflecting in advertising and margins. – Advertising platforms: Google enjoys increased sales leverage due to higher advertising rates in travel and retail sectors during economic recovery phases. – Last-mile/Delivery: DoorDash can witness rapid cash flow improvement if a recovery in order frequency and an upward revision of take rates occur simultaneously. – ETF alternative: XRT (US retail) can be used to lower individual stock risk.

Insider Buying Signals: Check the “Flow of Money”

– Southwest: Multiple insider purchases have been observed this year, and measures to boost profitability such as changes in seating policy and expansion of night flights are underway. – DoorDash: Reports of major insiders investing in the 100 billion won range are interpreted as a strong signal of confidence. – Principle: While insider ‘buying’ is a positive signal, do not rely solely on it; combine it with profitability indicators and approach it conservatively.

The Chain Reaction from Policy to Households to Industries

Tax cuts and rebate schemes directly improve household cash flow in the first quarter. An increase in household discretionary funds instantly translates into spending in sectors like dining, travel, apparel, and beauty. Increases in travel searches and bookings lead to a rapid response in advertising and commission revenues for companies like Google, Booking, and Expedia. Airlines and top hotel occupancy operators enjoy greater profit improvements relative to revenue due to fixed cost leverage.

Rate and Liquidity Dilemma: Real Impact on Portfolios

As expectations for economic recovery grow, a rebound in long-term rates and weakness in TLT could recur. This may slow the pace of rate cuts, posing challenges for liquidity-sensitive assets (such as cryptocurrency-related stocks and small thematic stocks). Conversely, economically sensitive stocks, value stocks, and large-cap consumer companies with transparent cash flows can enjoy relative benefits. The key point is to focus on the magnitude of real growth (economic recovery) and margin leverage rather than the sheer number of rate cuts.

FOMC Checkpoint: Dot Plot and Market Reaction Scenarios

– Scenario A: Fewer than two rate cuts next year could lead to short-term disappointment and a potential rise in long-term rates. – Scenario B: Two to three rate cuts create a “soft landing plus gradual liquidity” setup that is favorable for economic recovery stocks. – Scenario C: More than three rate cuts may bolster liquidity assets; however, they come with the risk of re-igniting inflation. – Response: Confirm a “second lead” 48–72 hours after the initial reaction and adjust positions accordingly.

Additional “Key Insights” Rarely Mentioned Elsewhere

– Real beta in advertising/search: A rebound in travel and retail advertising rates is one of the quickest cash flow indicators of economic recovery. – Structural transformation of airlines: Revisions in seating policies, expansion of premium seats, and introduction of night flights can improve profitability without additional CAPEX. – Bias adjustment in sentiment indicators: Considering the political bias in consumer sentiment indices, extreme pessimism can actually signal a contrarian buying zone. – Policy lag effect: The practical reflection of tax refunds and rebates typically appears on a quarterly basis, with first-quarter consumption data often serving as a turning point.

Practical Strategy: 6–12 Month Roadmap

– Core: Build a portfolio consisting of names with clear “margin leverage” among large retail, travel, advertising platforms, and airlines. – Satellite: Include a small allocation of cyclical factors such as legacy semiconductors, copper, and energy services. – Reduction: Lower the weight of small thematic and loss-leading stocks that rely purely on liquidity expectations. – ETF Utilization: Simplify factor exposure by using ETFs like XRT, XLE (energy), and COPX (copper). – Checklist: Review traffic trends, same-store sales, inventory turnover days, PRASM/CASM, advertising CPC/ROAS, and take rates on a quarterly basis. – Risks: Be cautious of surging oil prices, a strong dollar, wage/labor disputes, geopolitical risks, and the potential re-ignition of inflation.

Data to Check Immediately

– Retail: Monthly retail sales, discount store traffic, and inventory turnover days. – Travel: Airline booking rates, available seat kilometers (ASK) on international routes, and hotel occupancy rates. – Advertising: Google’s travel and retail category CPC and advertiser spending. – Rates: Dot plot, long-term versus short-term spreads, and TLT price movements.

Conclusion Summarized in Key Keywords

As the global economy shifts its focus toward expectations of economic recovery, there exist simultaneous risks of reignited inflation and a slower pace of rate cuts. In this dilemma, market leaders are likely to be broadly distributed across sectors with high real leverage such as consumer, travel, advertising, airlines, and energy. By combining policy signals with insider buying activity, a strategy to pre-position for the rotation until the first half of 2026 appears advantageous.

Disclaimer

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest in individual stocks or ETFs only after conducting thorough research and at your own risk.

< Summary >

– The core message from Trump is an “all-in” on a real economy recovery in 2026. – Tax cuts, refunds, and deregulation improve household cash flow, which then spreads to consumer, travel, advertising, and airline sectors. – With a potential slowdown in the rate cut pace, economically sensitive and value stocks have a relative advantage over liquidity-sensitive ones. – Recovery momentum is observed in sectors like retail, airlines, travel platforms, Google, DoorDash, as well as in ETFs such as XRT. – Track the 6–12 month rotation by monitoring leading signals such as the dot plot, long-term rates, advertising rates, and airline PRASM.

[Related Articles…]
2026 Economic Recovery Stock Rotation Checkpoints
How the FOMC Dot Plot is Changing Stock Market Scenarios

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 트럼프 최측근들의 강력 힌트, 2026 증시 주도주 뒤바뀔까

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● Nvidia Bloodbath, Nasdaq Crash, KOSPI Plunge

NVIDIA 30% Correction Scenario and the Spillover Path to the Korean Stock Market: Up Until the First Half of 2026, It Rises; in the Second Half, Value and Earnings Slow Down Simultaneously

Today’s article contains these key points.
Signal of NVIDIA’s PER re-rating from 60 to 30 and the timeline of when it could “burst.”
The mechanism by which the Nasdaq correction transfers to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, pushing the KOSPI down to the early 3000s.
How foreign capital, the KRW-USD exchange rate, and expectations of interest rate cuts create a first-half rally and turn into risks in the second half.
And the decisive points that most overlook, such as the bottleneck changes in AI infrastructure, the rise of custom chips, secondary GPU inventories, packaging capacity expansion, and power and cooling constraints.
A complete summary of strategies for each scenario and a sector rotation roadmap.

News Summary: Key Points from Dr. Lee Ju-wan’s Interview Part 1

NVIDIA remains a good company, but there is a diagnosis that its sales and operating profit growth rates are reverting to past levels.
Currently, a PER of around 60 was accepted for startup-level growth, but by Q3 of 2025 (as mentioned in the video), with more evident growth rate deceleration, the debate over normalizing PER to between 30 and 25 may intensify.
When converted into stock price, there is a significant possibility of about a 30% correction, and in that case, a correction across Nasdaq technology stocks is considered inevitable.
If Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also face a concurrent correction, due to their market capitalization weights, it is suggested that the KOSPI could be pushed down to the early 3000s.
However, it is also emphasized that there is still room for the market to rise further until the first half of 2026 amid improvements in earnings and liquidity expectations.
Foreign investors were net sellers by the end of the year due to year-end settlements, exchange rate volatility, and profit-taking, and during periods of a weakening won, the risk of staying in Korea increases.
After the beginning of the year, as the paths for interest rates, exchange rate, and liquidity are reset, the adjustment of the foreign investor ratio may resume.

The Logic Behind NVIDIA’s Valuation Reset: PER 60 → 30

The core issue is “growth rate deceleration = valuation downshift.”
For about the past 1.5 years, startup-level growth justified PERs of 60–70, but if you look at the quarterly data for the past five years, sales growth rates have been in the low 60%s and operating profit growth rates in the 50%s.
In Q3 of next year (in the context of the interview), the base effect will further lower these growth rates, making it difficult to justify the startup-level multiples.
For a re-rating from PER 60 to 30, either earnings must double or the stock price must fall, and with growth rate deceleration hampering a rapid surge in earnings, a drop in the stock price is more likely.
Thus, a stock price correction is the most plausible scenario, with the market capitalization moving from around $4.5 trillion to the $3.5 trillion range as a first rational band.
This issue implies that the axis of AI investment sentiment could be shaken, adding a direct risk variable to the global economic outlook.

Timeline and Triggers: When and What Signal

The quarter when the deceleration in growth becomes evident numerically.

• In NVIDIA’s earnings guidance, a QoQ deceleration in sales and data center sales growth falling below 50%.
• If the operating profit growth rate appears less elastic compared to the sales growth rate, multiple compression will accelerate.
  Events that could trigger the valuation debate.
• Downward guidance, mentions of optimization of orders from major customers (hyperscalers), and readjustment of inventories/backlogs.
• Comments on rising penetration rates of competitors/custom chips (e.g., TPU, Trainium).
  Supply-side changes.
• If packaging capacity expansion measures such as CoWoS ease the bottleneck, the “scarcity premium” may be diluted, putting pressure on ASPs/margins.
  If two to three of these signals overlap, re-pricing could proceed rapidly.

Spillover Path to the Korean Market: KOSPI at 3000 Simulation

If the Nasdaq is corrected, those with beta exposure centered on the semiconductor cycle will react first.
Assuming a 30% correction for both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, due to their market capitalization weights, the index’s contribution will decline significantly, and the effect could then spread to finance, secondary batteries, and internet sectors in turn.
If risk factors in the second half simultaneously exert downward pressure, a stress scenario may emerge where the KOSPI retreats to the early 3000s.
However, in the first half, there remains an additional rally potential due to earnings momentum and liquidity expectations, and if foreign investor flows reverse during this period, there is a possibility of reaching new highs.

Foreign Capital, KRW-USD, and Interest Rates: Macro Variables to Watch

The year-end net selling by foreign investors is predominantly interpreted as a technical phenomenon, driven by year-end settlements, performance confirmations, hedging costs of the exchange rate, and dividend/repurchase considerations.
Based on the statements in the video, the fact that November’s net selling by foreigners was the highest on a monthly basis suggests significant profit-taking.
Approaching the 1,500 KRW mark in the KRW-USD exchange rate increases residence risks, prompting a reduction in Korean asset allocations.
After the beginning of the year, as the paths of interest rate cuts and the direction of the dollar realign, fund inflows may resume.
Global liquidity is subject to the strength or weakness of the dollar, the extent of the Fed’s easing, and fiscal policies.
Given the high uncertainty surrounding specific personnel or policy changes, it is more reasonable to treat those simply as scenarios and adjust positions when actual decisions and data are confirmed.

Key Points Most Overlook (Deep Dive)

• Encroachment of custom silicon.
  The increasing share of hyperscalers’ TPUs/Trainiums/ASICs lowers the TCO compared to NVIDIA, and some of the new capex may convert accordingly.
  This exerts medium-term pressure on NVIDIA’s sales growth rate and margin structure.
• Emergence of secondary GPUs.
  If the transition from training to inference coincides with a generation change, used A/H100 inventories could enter the market, pressuring new ASPs.
• Relief of the packaging bottleneck.
  If the expansion of capacities and operational rates of advanced packaging such as CoWoS and HBM is fully reflected in 2025-2026, the “scarcity premium” will ease and lead to margin normalization (i.e., downward adjustment).
• Power and cooling constraints.
  If the speed of expanding data center power infrastructure cannot keep up with GPU delivery, repeated order optimization and delivery delays may occur.
• Networking rebalancing.
  If the transition strategy from InfiniBand to Ethernet and the resolution of bottlenecks in optical modules/switches are achieved, the excess profits in the GPU value chain could be distributed.
• Memory price elasticity.
  A surge in HBM/DRAM prices may stimulate the price elasticity of demand, leading to BOM optimization in AI servers and signaling the peak-out of the memory cycle.
• Evolution of model efficiency.
  If inference efficiency is improved through compression, quantization, and serving optimization, the rate of increase in hardware required to achieve the same performance will slow down.
  These factors are the variables that help realize the “unlimited demand” assumption in the AI investment framework.
  They must also be included in estimating the performance resilience of the Korean semiconductor and equipment/materials value chains.

Investment Strategy: First-Half Rally vs. Second-Half Repricing

First half (expected scenario).

• Large semiconductor stocks: Momentum is maintained during periods of earnings upgrades.
  However, the upper limit of the target multiple should be set conservatively.
• Value chain: Increase exposure to stocks related to HBM, HBM substrate/post-processing/equipment, and testing.
• Macro: When expectations for interest rate cuts and the reversal of the dollar’s weakness materialize, KOSPI beta plays can be effective.
  Second half (risk scenario).
• Hedge: Prepare for inverse/volatility plays and staggered buying of oversold stocks.
• Rotation: Shift towards domestic sectors (some utilities/REITs), dividend/cash flow focused stocks, or infrastructure/green tech that may benefit from policies.
• Stock selection: Focus on winners in the “AI infrastructure bottleneck,” such as custom chips, power/cooling, networking, optical modules, and power semiconductors.
  Core principles.
• Bet on the “rate of change” rather than the valuation level.
• Once the indicators for earnings, guidance, orders/inventories start to weaken, the downward movement of multiples will operate mechanically.
• Even if the global economic outlook improves, detailed trends in AI investment will show “asymmetries by item.”

Checklist: What to Verify with Data

• NVIDIA quarterly guidance: Data center growth rate, gross margin, inventory/backlog, and comments from major customers.
• HBM/DRAM contract prices, lead times, and changes in customer mix.
• The speed and operational rates of capacity expansions in advanced packaging such as CoWoS.
• Hyperscaler capex guidance and estimated share of custom chips.
• The turning points for the KRW-USD exchange rate and net foreign buying/selling.
• The pathway for the realization of interest rate cut expectations and the direction of the Dollar Index.
  These combined indicators mark the moment of multiple re-pricing.

Correcting the Bias: “Slowing Growth Does Not Mean Poor Performance”

Absolute performance can still be strong.
The issue lies in the “growth rate” and “persistence” that determine the multiples.
That is why the market sometimes reacts with a decline “even with good performance.”
What is needed now is to coldly calculate the gap between the degree of goodness and the expectations already priced in.

< Summary >If a quarter confirms the deceleration in NVIDIA’s growth rate, the debate over shifting from PER 60 to 30 will intensify, posing about a 30% correction risk.
That shock could spread from the Nasdaq to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and then to the KOSPI, bringing it down to the early 3000s.
While there remains a rally potential in the first half due to earnings and liquidity, the second half is likely to hit an inflection point as both value and earnings decelerate simultaneously.
Hidden variables such as custom chips, used GPUs, packaging capacity expansion, power/networking bottlenecks, and innovations in memory prices/efficiency can change the multiples.
The strategy is to focus on momentum and the winners in the infrastructure bottleneck in the first half, and to respond with hedging and rotation in the second half.

[Related Articles…]

• Evolution of the AI Cycle and the 2026 Investment Checklist
• Rebound in the Semiconductor Market and KOSPI Sector Rotation Strategy

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 엔비디아 급락 시나리오 적정가 하락이 불러올 시장 붕괴 가능성은? 한국 시장이 가장 먼저 맞는다 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 이주완 박사 1편

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● Ship Parts Goldrush, Engines and LNG Boom

2026 Shipbuilding Supercycle Act II, an Investment Strategy Dominating Engine, LNG Insulation, and AM Solutions with ‘SOL Shipbuilding Equipment ETF’

The shipbuilding supercycle is shifting from Act I (major shipbuilders) to Act II (equipment).
This article covers the portfolio structure of the newly listed SOL Shipbuilding Equipment ETF, the key value chain components such as engines, LNG insulation, and AM solutions, the variables and risks of 2026, and even the positioning strategy using two ETFs.
In particular, we separately summarize the “order-to-revenue timing difference,” “the battleground for domestic equipment amid changes in U.S. laws and policies,” and “the structural margins of AM solutions,” which are rarely addressed in other news.
We have connected the global economic environment (interest rates, dollar, inflation) and supply chain issues to present an actionable investment strategy.

Today’s Key News at a Glance

Shinhan Asset Management listed the SOL Shipbuilding Equipment ETF as a new issue at the end of 2025.
This ETF focuses on “back-end equipment” such as engines, LNG insulation, AM (aftermarket) solutions, blocks, and fittings, excluding “finished shipbuilders” like Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, and Samsung Heavy Industries.
While the shipbuilding supercycle was led by major shipbuilders in 2024~2025, 2026 is expected to witness the full-blown “big brother–little brother effect” driven by the performance and stock prices of equipment suppliers.
The ETF comprises roughly 10 core stocks, with weightings reflecting representative categories, and the focus is relatively on the axes of engines, AM solutions, and insulation.

Why Equipment Now?

The profits of the supercycle are transferred in the order of vessel order → construction → equipment delivery → after-sales maintenance.
If the stock prices of major shipbuilders led, equipment usually accelerates revenue upon actual delivery and handover, often resulting in a 12 to 24-month lag rally.
With stricter environmental regulations increasing the adoption of dual-fuel (ammonia, LNG, LPG, methanol) engines, and the reactivation of LNG vessel orders, the demand for insulation remains structurally robust.
AM solutions cover the entire lifecycle of a ship, and as the proportion of upgrade requirements for regulatory compliance increases, the sales become stable and margins improve.
Expectations of a peak in global interest rates and a moderation in the strong dollar will improve the ordering conditions for shipowners, and strengthen the competitiveness of Korean equipment in the supply chain.

Deep Dive into the Value Chain: Where is the Revenue Leverage Greatest?

• Engines (the heart of ships)
  The proportion of dual-fuel and high-efficiency engines is structurally increasing.
  Due to the high technical difficulty and licensing system, the margin structure is more favorable than in the past, and despite the expansion of Chinese shipbuilders’ capacities, high value-added engines made in Korea and Europe continue to perform strongly.
  Key domestic beneficiaries include Hanwha Engines, HD Hyundai Marine Engines, and the engine division of Hyundai Heavy Industries.

• LNG Insulation (critical for cryogenic cargo holds)
  As the essential equipment for transporting LNG at -162℃, Korea Carbon and Dongseong Hwa Intech are global top-tier players.
  The resumption of U.S. LNG exports, the restart of FIDs (final investment decisions), and Europe’s gas diversification enhance the visibility of demand until 2026.

• AM (Aftermarket) Solutions (the healthcare for ships)
  The increasing proportion of aging vessels combined with the demand for regulatory upgrade solutions for environmental compliance is driving up CAPEX in maintenance and repairs.
  Unlike the order industry, the high proportion of recurring revenue provides excellent cycle resilience, and improved product mix is enhancing profitability.
  HD Hyundai Marine Solutions is highlighted as a representative domestic stock.

• Blocks, Cranes, and Fittings (the skeleton, blood vessels, and equipment)
  The demand for LNG and container vessels with a high proportion of complex curved parts improves the margins of complex curve blocks.
  There is also steady demand for highly reliable parts in fittings, valves, and pipe lines.
  Hyundai Heems (blocks and equipment), Seongkwang Band, Taekwang, and Oriental Engineering are among those mentioned.

SOL Shipbuilding Equipment ETF: Portfolio Concept

The portfolio is composed of around 10 representative equipment companies, excluding major shipbuilders.
In competitive categories such as engines, AM solutions, and insulation, approximately 20% weighting is given to representative stocks when rebalancing, and the remainder is distributed based on market capitalization.
As of the end of November 2025, companies such as Hanwha Engines, HD Hyundai Marine Engines, Korea Carbon, and HD Hyundai Marine Solutions were among the high-weight groups.
It provides investors aiming to more nimbly track the equipment cycle an alternative to the “basket separation” from the existing SOL Shipbuilding Top3+ ETF.

Core Variables for 2026: Policy, Regulation, and Supply Chain

• Escalation of U.S.-China Sanctions in Shipping and Shipbuilding
  As restrictions on Chinese shipbuilders and shipowners tighten, the potential benefits for Korean shipbuilding and equipment increase.
  Changes in the new order share are being verified statistically and remain key points for observation in 2026.

• Discussion on U.S. ‘Allied Shipyards’ Exception
  If provisions under certain U.S. laws and regulations, which generally mandate domestic construction, progress to include exceptions for allied shipyards, Korean equipment will benefit from delivery, logistics, and labor advantages.
  If the exception is not applied, increased burdens of local procurement and transportation in the U.S. may lead to divergent outcomes among stocks.

• Timeline for Environmental Regulations
  With the tightening of IMO CII and EEXI, the enforcement of regulations is set to intensify between 2026 and 2028.
  Demand for dual-fuel engines, emission reduction devices, and digital optimization solutions are expected to expand in tandem.

• Global Economy, Interest Rates, Dollar, and Oil Prices
  A downward trend in interest rates and easing inflation will improve ordering and financing conditions for shipowners.
  A moderation in the strong dollar is neutral to favorable for Korean equipment in terms of cost and foreign exchange gains.
  Oil price fluctuations affect operating expenses for vessels and fuel choices, thus promoting the transition to dual-fuel options.

• Supply Chain and Workforce Expertise
  The bottleneck lies in high-difficulty welding and commissioning personnel.
  If the issue of recruiting local U.S. workers persists, the comparative competitiveness of Korean shipyards and equipment can become even more pronounced.

Risk Checklist

• Risk of Capacity Expansion in the Later Stage of the Cycle
  If the expansion during 2025~2026 overlaps with order slowdown after 2027, there is a risk of diluted profitability.

• Fluctuations in Raw Material Prices and Exchange Rates
  Prices of stainless steel, specialty steel, polymer foam raw materials, nickel, and copper, as well as the KRW/USD exchange rate, have a significant impact on margins.

• Legal and Policy Uncertainties
  Changes in U.S. allied shipyard exceptions, the intensity of Chinese sanctions, and revisions to IMO guidelines can affect each segment of the value chain differently.

• Portfolio Concentration
  A structure concentrated in roughly 10 stocks with high weighting may be sensitive to individual issues.

Investment Strategy: Dividing the Roles of the Two ETFs

• Base Camp: SOL Shipbuilding Top3+ ETF
  It secures stable beta and exposure to the order pipeline largely driven by major shipbuilders.

• Alpha Source: SOL Shipbuilding Equipment ETF
  It focuses on the subsequent rally and margin leverage concentrated in engines, insulation, and AM solutions.

• Rebalancing Ideas
  Tactically increase the weighting in equipment in conjunction with news regarding equipment orders, dual-fuel engine order contracts, LNG FID/U.S. export restarts, and IMO sessions (policy and regulatory events).
  When a downward trend in interest rates is confirmed, consider a split such as 6:4 or 5:5 between Top3+ and equipment.
  During supply chain shocks or sudden jumps in raw material prices, reduce the equipment weighting to manage volatility concurrently.

Key Points (Matters Not Covered Elsewhere)

• Order-to-Revenue Timing Difference
  There is a 12 to 24-month lag in realizing equipment sales and profits after the peak of vessel orders.
  Thus, the orders from 2024~2025 will be reflected in the performance of 2026~2027, generating “time-lag alpha” for ETFs focused on equipment.

• Quantifying the Qualitative Growth of AM Solutions
  The proportion of upgrades for regulatory compliance (efficiency and emission improvements) has increased over mere maintenance, improving both ARPU and margins.
  The high share of recurring revenue with strong cycle resilience contributes to volatility reduction.

• Laws and Policies Directly Impact Delivery and Margins
  Whether U.S. allied exceptions are applied will change “where the ship is built,” which in turn affects equipment logistics, production processes, and labor efficiency.
  If the exception is applied, the delivery risk for Korean equipment is reduced; if not, local sourcing burdens may widen the spread among stocks.

• Licensing Systems Create Barriers to Entry
  Licensing structures for engines (e.g., MAN, Wärtsilä) and LNG cargo holds (e.g., GTT) rely on technology and quality assurance.
  Domestic companies are further solidifying their models by securing margins through high-quality manufacturing and process efficiency based on licensing.

Connection with AI Trends: The Order of Transition Is the Same

Just as the AI cycle transitions from big tech → GPU → power, cooling, and back-end equipment, the shipbuilding cycle shifts from major shipbuilders → engines, insulation, and AM solutions with profits spreading accordingly.
A value chain that preempts supply chain bottlenecks reaps excess profits, and this transition is highly likely to reoccur in 2026 led by equipment.

Checkpoint Calendar

• Q4 2025 ~ H1 2026: Announcements on U.S. LNG project FIDs/export resumptions, updates on orders for Korea Carbon and Dongseong Hwa Intech
• Schedule for IMO sessions and updates on regulatory guidelines (detailed proposals for CII/EEXI and the roadmap for 2026~2028)
• Progress of U.S. legislative and administrative guidelines regarding the allied shipyard exception
• Public disclosures on order backlogs, lead times, and capacity expansion for key engine and AM solution companies
• Trends in interest rates, dollar, oil prices, ordering statistics from shipowners, and global indicators of supply chain congestion

Representative Stock Examples (by Sector)

Engines: Hanwha Engines, HD Hyundai Marine Engines, Engine Division of Hyundai Heavy Industries
Insulation: Korea Carbon, Dongseong Hwa Intech
AM Solutions: HD Hyundai Marine Solutions
Blocks/Equipment: Hyundai Heems
Fittings/Valves: Seongkwang Band, Taekwang, Oriental Engineering
(The examples above are provided for sector understanding, and actual ETF inclusion/weighting should be verified in official disclosures.)

Research Memo

• Equipment is undergoing a structural change where margins are rising due to a higher proportion of high-difficulty components compared to the past.
• 2026 will be a year where policy, regulation, and supply chain factors directly translate into “delivery = margin,” making event-driven strategies effective.

Disclaimer

This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific product, and its content may change depending on market conditions and official announcements.
Before investing, please ensure to check the product prospectus, component stocks, fees, tracking errors, and liquidity.

< Summary >

The second act of the shipbuilding supercycle is equipment.
The SOL Shipbuilding Equipment ETF focuses on key back-end components such as engines, insulation, and AM solutions to capture the 2026~2027 alpha resulting from the order-to-revenue timing lag.
U.S. policy exceptions, the timeline for environmental regulations, interest rates/dollar/oil prices, and supply chain and labor issues are the decisive factors.
While the Top3+ ETF captures beta, the equipment ETF captures alpha, and tactical rebalancing around events is advised.

[Related Articles…]

• Shipbuilding Supercycle and LNG Insulation: Key Points for 2026
• Dual-Fuel Engines and AM Solutions, the Cash Flow Structure of Shipbuilding Equipment

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 슈퍼 사이클에 진입한 주도주 SOL 조선기자재 ETF가 나왔습니다(SOL 조선기자재 ETF)

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