Similarly, Broadcom is 16.95, Micro is 4, and Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are also mentioned as being valued in the range of around 20 or even lower.

The key interpretation here is this. Even though AI-related Big Tech looks like it will improve in earnings, the stock price keeps falling, and the logic is that the price has over-discounted the earnings.

This post emphasizes the tone that “it’s rare, historically, to see it this cheap.”

3) Evidence for the “tech stock discount” claim #2: The tech premium is at the lowest level ever

The next basis is the “premium attached to tech stocks” (premium means: the reason they trade at higher prices).

According to the post, the tech premium is mentioned at around about 1.0 (average 1.3~1.4), which leads to the interpretation that valuation has been cut by roughly about 30%.

When asked why this happened, it connects to the idea that “compared with 2025, the way expectations for AI are reflected changed, and the risk premium for software/AI-related stocks grew.”

In particular, software seems to carry a stronger sense that if fear grows that it “can be replaced by AI,” then the company can fall more sharply because it has relatively fewer assets that would remain even if the company fails.

On the other hand, hardware/data centers also have anxiety about “what if the AI bubble deflates?” together with this fear, but at this point, the claim is that the entire tech sector has fallen excessively at the same time.

4) A statistical “fear can become opportunity” argument: performance 1 year after the -10%~-15% range

In this post, they say they looked at past patterns based on the average decline from a midterm election (the exact metric name may be expressed a bit differently).

Based on the average median value, the decline is presented at roughly -15%, and if the current S&P 500 is -10%, then it connects to the idea that “if it drops just a little more, it enters the average range.”

And then a more important point comes up. The next result is that the average return after 1 year is close to about +40%.

In other words, the “current -10% fear” is used as a basis for saying it could actually be the “start of the recovery.” Of course, this time could be different, but historically, it happened quite often.

5) Two scenarios: rebound near the 200-day moving average vs deeper decline (and “most recover”)

This post feels less like a chart/technical viewpoint and more like it’s trying to bring in “time/pattern” context. It summarizes case studies of how recoveries looked in past downswings, while specifically mentioning the 200-day moving average as a representative point.

Scenario 1) Rebound near the 200-day moving average

Scenario 2) Even if it drops further below the 200-day moving average, in the past most of the time it recovered within 6 months

As an exception case, it cites the Lew war (the Ukraine war) phase. The content summarizes that while events like COVID, the tariff war, and other incidents often led to V-shaped/rapid recoveries, the Lew war was a relatively longer decline.

So then the key question is: “Will it last as long as the Lew war does?” In the post, it argues that the economic indicators at that time differ from today.

6) Differences from the Lew war: a different environment such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and wages

The points compared in the post are fairly specific.

– Housing cost inflation rate: it was 20%+ during the Lew war, but it is now 1.4%

– Used car price inflation rate: it was in the 50% range back then, but it has actually been falling now

– Wage growth / service inflation: back then it was at a surge level, whereas now it’s a relatively managed trend

– Unemployment-related indicators: looking at per-person job slack (even if the wording differs), the claim is that “it’s not a bad range” right now

– Core PC (related to price/inflation): in the 6% range back then vs in the 3% range now

– Interest rates: back then it had an aggressive feel like “giant step,” but now there are forecasts that it could be frozen or even lower around year-end

The conclusion is this. Because it’s unlikely to follow the same path as the Lew war, the odds of recovery within 6 months are higher.

7) The claim that earnings (EPS) won’t break: actual results are better than forecasts

What matters here is not the “stock price,” but “earnings (EPS).” According to the post, in 2025 the actual EPS came in higher than analysts’ projected growth rates.

For example, it explains that a “surprise upward” pattern repeated—where the quarterly EPS growth estimate was 7%, but the actual result was 12%.

And the expectations for 2026 are also being set high; the post connects it in a way that even if those expectations are already high, there is still potential for stock price gains “as long as results come in at the forecast level.”

The core logic structure is as follows.

– If PER doesn’t increase dramatically again (if the multiple doesn’t change sharply) – As EPS growth rises, stock prices will likely move along with it

And the post argues that the largest share of that EPS growth will be driven by Big Tech and AI-related stocks.

8) The base scenario: “today’s price” could be the right answer up to 2026

The tone of this post is: “Don’t try to predict the worst—create opportunities.”

If the price is already in an undervalued zone, unless there is a severe economic recession (or unless the war worsens to an extreme), then there is room for AI/Big Tech to regain strength.

It also brings up an interesting analogy from the Gulf War.

Back then, oil prices surged and then fell sharply again to return to the original level, and it makes a historical comparison that Nasdaq rose significantly for about a year and a half during that period.

Of course, it can’t be 100% the same as today, but it reinforces the logic that “if the war phase stabilizes sooner than expected, the stock price may have already priced it in, and then could reverse.”

9) Practical conclusion: not a “one-shot” buy, but split purchases + a tech-stock-centered structure

The real-world message this post gives readers boils down to two main points.

First, split purchases may be more reasonable than betting on perfect timing

Second, in areas where undervaluation is confirmed, it expects tech stocks (Big Tech and AI-related stocks) to be strong during the recovery phase

And don’t overreact to “the current pain.” If you already have experience investing in stocks, you’ve likely gone through multiple major selloffs already, so it ends with advice that a long-term mindset matters most.

News-style core summary (only the “most important points,” with a different tone than other news)

[1] “War variables” are hard to predict, so approach via undervaluation (forward PER, tech premium).

[2] Nvidia/Big Tech are cited as being extremely cheap even on next year’s earnings basis.

[3] Historically, there is a pattern where after a -10%~-15% drop, 1-year performance recovers significantly on average.

[4] Unlike the Lew war, it assumes the interest rate, inflation, and employment conditions are different, thereby lowering the possibility that the decline will last in the same way.

[5] The conclusion is not “buy all at once,” but “approach via split purchases for tech/AI-related stocks.”

SEO keywords (organized naturally)

The core search intent of this post groups around Nasdaq outlook, tech stock valuation, split purchase strategy, AI-related stocks, and Big Tech earnings.

Expected effect: the “decision-making framework” readers can take away

The framework you can apply immediately after reading this post is this.

1) Don’t look for timing to bet on geopolitical events

2) Instead, check valuation data like “forward PER based on next year’s earnings” and “tech premium”

3) Refer to historical recovery patterns from past drawdown periods (average recovery time, 1-year performance) and approach with “split purchases”

4) Finally, confirm whether EPS is coming in above forecasts

If you nail just these four steps, even if the market shakes more, your investment judgment won’t swing nearly as much.

< Summary >

– Nasdaq/tech stocks wobble due to war and political uncertainty, but the post interprets it as an “undervalued zone.”

– It views Nvidia and Big Tech as being priced extremely low on forward PER (based on next year’s earnings), implying valuation attractiveness.

– It argues that the tech premium is at the lowest level ever and that the current decline could be excessive.

– It presents as evidence a pattern where historically, after a -10%~-15% drop, average 1-year returns recover strongly.

– Unlike the Lew war, it expects a higher chance of recovery within 6 months, arguing that the economic environment—such as interest rates, inflation, and employment—is different.

– It concludes that if the trend of EPS coming in better than expected continues and PER doesn’t change rapidly, there is upside potential for tech/AI-related stocks.

– The practical conclusion is to approach tech/AI-related stocks with split purchases, not “perfect bottom timing.”

[Related posts…]

• AI valuation check centered on Nvidia: when is the timing for a tech-stock rebound?
• Nasdaq outlook update: recovery patterns and strategy after a -10% correction

*Source: [ 월텍남 – 월스트리트 테크남 ]