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Urgent: KRW/JPY Volatility & Interest Rate Hike Forecast

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Billy Yang



2024-2025 Japanese and Korean Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Outlook

1. Japanese Yen Depreciation and Key Factors

1-1. Background of Yen Depreciation

  • Main Factor: Widening interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.
  • Impact of Interest Rate Gap: The U.S. offers higher interest earnings due to rapid rate hikes, while Japan maintains relatively low rates.
  • Mid-2024: The Bank of Japan attempted to adjust its interest rate policy but suspended increases due to heightened market instability.

1-2. Japan's Exchange Rate Defense Strategy

  • The Japanese government tried to intervene in the foreign exchange market by setting defense lines at 150 and 160 yen.
  • However: No serious negative economic impact occurred even after these defense lines were breached.
  • The Bank of Japan is unlikely to implement sharp interest rate hikes despite the yen's weakness.

2. Korean Won Depreciation and Foreign Investment Risks

2-1. Korean Political Risk and Economic Assessment

  • Political Risk: The state of emergency and repeated political turmoil (impeachment) in South Korea at the end of 2024 created a negative image for foreign investors.
  • Foreign investors tend to exaggerate domestic situations.
  • Result: Foreign investment aversion has led to a decline in the value of the won and increased capital outflow.

2-2. External Assessment of the Korean Economy

  • From a Japanese perspective, the underlying strength of the Korean economy remains robust.
  • However, investment uncertainty due to political risk persists.

3. 2025 Japanese Monetary Policy Stance

3-1. Japan's Interest Rate Policy Outlook

  • The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates further in the short term.
  • Reasons:
    1. Both the U.S. and Japanese economies are in unstable conditions.
    2. Japan's high national debt ratio makes interest rate increases burdensome.
  • However, long-term interest rate hikes are inevitable due to the need to end quantitative easing and manage government debt.

3-2. Impact and Outlook of Yen Carry Trade

  • There was fear of a yen carry unwind due to the yen's weakness in 2024, but it has relatively stabilized in 2025.
  • Carry trades (borrowing funds at low interest rates for high-yield investments) are unlikely to become fully active unless Japan raises interest rates.

< Summary in English >

1. Japan's Yen Weakening Factors

  • Main Factor: Widening interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan.
  • Japan's attempts to raise interest rates in mid-2024 were halted due to market instability.

2. Korea's Won Depreciation & Political Risks

  • Political instability in Korea has created a negative perception among foreign investors.
  • Foreign capital outflows have further weakened the Won.

3. 2025 Japan Monetary Policy

  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to implement further rate hikes in the short term due to:
    1. Uncertain global economic conditions.
    2. Japan's high levels of government debt.
  • Long-term: Gradual rate hikes are anticipated as Japan needs to exit quantitative easing policies.

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]


– 한-일 환율 대혼돈 보인다. 일본 금리인상 가능성과 원화 가치의 미래 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 박상준 교수 1편

[Korean Summary]


[경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]
“한-일 환율 대혼돈 보인다. 일본 금리인상 가능성과 원화 가치의 미래 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 박상준 교수 1편“

# 2024~2025년 일본 및 한국 환율과 금리 전망

1. 일본 엔화 가치 하락 및 주요 요인

1-1. 엔화 가치 하락 배경

  • 주요 요인: 일본과 미국 간 금리 차이 확대.
  • 금리 차에 따른 영향: 미국이 금리를 빠르게 인상하면서 일본보다 높은 이자 수익을 제공. 일본은 상대적으로 낮은 금리를 유지.
  • 과거 2024년 중반, 일본은행이 금리 정책 조정을 시도했으나, 시장 불안정성이 심화되며 인상을 중단.

1-2. 일본의 환율 방어 전략

  • 일본 정부는 150엔과 160엔 저지선을 설정해 외환 시장 개입을 시도.
  • 그러나: 실제 저지선이 무너진 이후에도 경제의 심각한 마이너스 충격은 나타나지 않음.
  • 일본은행은 엔화 약세에도 급격한 금리 인상을 단행할 가능성은 낮음.

2. 한국 원화 가치 하락 및 외국인 투자 리스크

2-1. 한국 정치적 리스크와 경제 평가

  • 정치적 리스크: 2024년 말 한국에서의 비상사태와 반복된 정치적 혼란(탄핵)이 외국인 투자자에게 부정적 이미지 제공.
  • 특히 외국인은 국내 상황을 더 과장해 해석하는 경향이 강함.
  • 결과: 외국인의 투자 회피로 원화 가치 하락, 자금 유출이 심화됨.

2-2. 대외의 한국 경제 평가

  • 일본 관점에서는 한국 경제의 저력이 여전히 강력하다고 평가.
  • 그러나 정치적 리스크로 인한 투자 불확실성은 계속되는 상태.

3. 2025년 일본 통화정책 스탠스

3-1. 일본 금리 정책 전망

  • 일본은행은 단기적으로는 추가 금리 인상 가능성이 낮음.

  • 이유:

    1. 미국과 일본 모두 경제가 불안정한 상태.
    2. 일본의 국가 부채 비율이 높아 금리 인상 부담이 큼.

  • 다만, 장기적으로는 일본도 금리 인상이 불가피: 양적완화 정책 종료 필요성과 정부 부채 관리 문제 때문.

3-2. 엔캐리 트레이드 영향 및 전망

  • 2024년 엔화 약세로 인한 엔캐리 청산 공포가 있었으나, 2025년 현재 상대적으로 안정됨.
  • 캐리 트레이드(저금리로 자금을 조달 후 고수익 투자)는 일본의 금리가 인상되지 않는 한, 본격화되기 어려움.

< Summary in English >

1. Japan's Yen Weakening Factors

  • Main Factor: Widening interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan.
  • Japan's attempts to raise interest rates in mid-2024 were halted due to market instability.

2. Korea's Won Depreciation & Political Risks

  • Political instability in Korea has created a negative perception among foreign investors.
  • Foreign capital outflows have further weakened the Won.

3. 2025 Japan Monetary Policy

  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to implement further rate hikes in the short term due to:

    1. Uncertain global economic conditions.
    2. Japan's high levels of government debt.

  • Long-term: Gradual rate hikes are anticipated as Japan needs to exit quantitative easing policies.

 2024-2025 Japanese and Korean Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Outlook 1. Japanese Yen Depreciation and Key Factors 1-1. Background of Yen Depreciation Main Factor: Widening interest rate gap between Japan and the United States. Impact of Interest Rate Gap: The U.S. offers higher interest earnings due to rapid rate hikes, while Japan maintains relatively…

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