KOSPI Slumps, Samsung Boost Fails, Market Jitters

● KOSPI-Slips, Samsung-Boost-Fails, Market-Jitters

Why the KOSPI Fell Sharply Despite Samsung Electronics’ Positive News: The Real Background Behind the Market Decline

Today’s decline in the KOSPI was not a simple case of foreign investors selling.

The move reflected a combination of weakness in U.S. equities, heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, disappointment following the FOMC rate decision, the market impact of Samsung Electronics’ earnings release, and selling by retail investors.

Most notably, the index failed to hold gains despite clear positive catalysts from Samsung Electronics.

This suggests that the market is currently responding more strongly to “sell on strength” sentiment than to positive news.

Below is a news-style summary of the KOSPI’s decline from the perspective of global equity trends, Samsung Electronics earnings, semiconductor stocks, investor sentiment, and the AI semiconductor cycle.

1. The first reason for the KOSPI’s weakness: U.S. market sentiment deteriorated first

The KOSPI had limited room to move independently from the opening session.

Global risk aversion intensified after the previous day’s weak close in U.S. equities.

This is because the Korean market has high foreign ownership and heavy index influence from large-cap semiconductor names such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

As a result, it is highly sensitive to movements in the Nasdaq, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and U.S. Treasury yields.

The decline was driven by three main factors.

Escalation of geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Ambiguous messaging from the Federal Reserve after holding rates steady at the FOMC meeting
Increased profit-taking in the U.S. equity market

Middle East risk has renewed concerns over oil prices and inflation.

Rising oil prices increase cost pressures for companies and may slow disinflation.

That, in turn, reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve may be less willing to cut rates soon.

As a result, the market interpreted the situation as follows: the rate hold was expected, but the timing of future cuts remains unclear.

This was the central reason for the disappointment following the FOMC decision.

2. The FOMC held rates, but the market did not get the signal it wanted

The rate hold itself was largely in line with market expectations.

The issue was not the decision, but the tone and guidance that followed.

Investors wanted a clear signal that rate cuts were approaching.

However, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to assess inflation, employment, and growth data further.

Equities had already rallied on expectations of policy easing.

When the Fed did not provide a clear dovish signal, investors moved to lock in gains.

That pressure weighed on U.S. stocks and carried over into the KOSPI the next day.

In simple terms, the market response was as follows.

The rate hold was already priced in.
The key issue was guidance on rate cuts.
The Fed did not provide a decisive signal.
As a result, investors reduced equity exposure.

In this environment, growth stocks and semiconductor shares tend to weaken.

AI semiconductor and technology stocks have already priced in substantial future growth expectations.

When expectations for rate cuts weaken, the present value of future earnings falls, and valuation concerns re-emerge.

3. Why the KOSPI briefly rebounded: the effect of Samsung Electronics’ earnings release

The main reason the KOSPI was able to rebound intraday was Samsung Electronics.

The company’s earnings release included information that the market viewed positively.

The key points were threefold.

Disclosure related to LTA, or long-term supply agreements
Confirmation of continued shareholder return policy
Possibility of a special dividend review

LTA agreements are important signals in the semiconductor industry.

Memory semiconductors are highly cyclical.

Expansion in long-term supply agreements can therefore be interpreted as evidence of more stable customer demand.

As AI data center investment continues to expand, structural demand for HBM, DDR5, and high-capacity server memory is increasing.

Samsung Electronics’ explanation of long-term contracts was viewed as more than a short-term earnings improvement; it also helped support confidence in the medium- to long-term semiconductor cycle.

Shareholder return policy also supported sentiment.

Samsung Electronics’ intention to maintain its stated return policy and consider a special dividend was viewed as a factor that could provide downside support.

For a time, the market expected Samsung Electronics to lift the broader index again.

4. The reversal: selling pressure emerged as the market recovered

The rebound did not last.

The reason the KOSPI fell again despite Samsung Electronics’ positive news was supply pressure.

The market still has a large number of investors who bought at higher levels or during prior advances.

When prices recover even modestly, these investors often sell to exit at breakeven or reduce losses.

This is commonly referred to as overhead supply.

When the price reaches a certain range, investors who bought at those levels may sell to protect capital or reduce losses.

As a result, even positive news may not be enough to drive a decisive breakout.

That was the structure of today’s KOSPI move.

Rebound driven by Samsung Electronics earnings and shareholder return expectations
KOSPI and Samsung Electronics recovered to a certain level
Selling emerged from existing holders
External weakness then pushed the index lower again

In other words, the issue was not the absence of positive catalysts, but insufficient market strength to absorb them.

This is the most important point for assessing today’s KOSPI outlook.

5. Why Samsung Electronics and SK hynix drive the KOSPI

The Korean market has a structurally high weighting in semiconductors.

The direction of the KOSPI is often determined by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

In particular, AI semiconductors, HBM, data center investment, and the recovery in memory prices have been the central themes supporting the Korean market.

SK hynix has attracted strong attention due to its HBM competitiveness.

Samsung Electronics has been watched for progress in HBM capabilities, foundry improvements, and a recovery in the memory cycle.

Against this backdrop, Samsung Electronics’ emphasis on long-term supply contracts and shareholder returns was clearly constructive.

However, the market is no longer moving on the simple premise that “AI is positive.”

Investors now want to see actual earnings, margin improvement, customer contracts, cash flow, and shareholder returns.

AI semiconductors remain a long-term growth industry, but prices always reflect the gap between expectations and realized results.

Key variables for semiconductor stocks now include the following.

Speed of HBM supply expansion
Relationships with global customers such as Nvidia
Persistence of the rebound in standard memory prices
Inventory reduction pace
Recovery in operating margins
Execution of shareholder return policy

6. The key sentiment revealed today: the market still lacks conviction

Today’s KOSPI decline cannot be explained only by short-term negative factors.

More precisely, the market still lacks conviction.

Investors expect a recovery in the semiconductor cycle.

They also believe AI data center investment will continue.

They recognize the potential for improved earnings at Samsung Electronics.

At the same time, they remain concerned about rates, the exchange rate, geopolitical risk, and the possibility of a U.S. market correction.

In such an environment, even minor negative news can trigger rapid selling.

Conversely, positive news does not easily translate into a sustained uptrend.

The market is therefore in a transitional phase before a full earnings-driven cycle emerges.

In short.

The growth narrative remains intact.
However, valuation pressure is present.
Further confirmation from earnings is needed.
Interest rate direction remains uncertain.
As a result, investors are selling on rallies.

7. The most important point often missed in other coverage: the location of supply matters more than the quality of the catalyst

Many reports explain today’s decline through weak U.S. equities, disappointment from the FOMC, and Middle East risk.

Those explanations are valid.

However, the more important issue is elsewhere.

The KOSPI is currently in a structure where positive news does not easily lead to a sustained breakout.

The reason is the presence of significant overhead supply.

In particular, large retail ownership in Samsung Electronics creates repeated selling at certain price levels.

When the stock rises, existing holders often sell before new buyers step in.

This is not only a technical chart issue.

It is a matter of investor psychology and capital flows.

When market participants believe prices can move higher, they absorb supply and continue buying.

When they believe the market may reverse again, they sell into strength.

Today’s KOSPI action was closer to the latter.

Even constructive factors such as Samsung Electronics’ earnings and possible special dividends could not overcome the supply overhang.

For the KOSPI to form a durable bottom, it will need time to work through that supply, not just a single positive catalyst.

8. The bottom debate: is this really a market bottom?

There is growing discussion about whether the market has already bottomed.

However, a bottom cannot be confirmed by one headline.

A more reliable bottom typically appears when three conditions coincide.

The market stops declining materially despite negative news
Foreign and institutional investors turn net buyers
Earnings estimates stop being revised lower

The KOSPI still has expectations for improvement in the semiconductor cycle.

But the global macro environment remains unsettled.

Uncertainty over the timing of Fed rate cuts remains, and Middle East risk could keep volatility elevated.

If the exchange rate becomes unstable, foreign investor demand may also weaken.

Accordingly, it is more appropriate to view the current phase as one of bottom confirmation rather than a confirmed bottom.

Select names may be suitable for phased accumulation, but it is too early to conclude that the broader market has fully shifted into a strong uptrend.

9. Key indicators investors should monitor now

To assess the KOSPI outlook, investors should look beyond Samsung Electronics alone.

Movements in the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
Direction of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
Dollar Index and KRW/USD exchange rate
Foreign investors’ net buying in the KOSPI
Institutional and foreign flows in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
News on HBM supply contracts
Memory semiconductor pricing indicators
Oil price movements linked to Middle East risk

The KRW/USD exchange rate is particularly important.

A sharp rise in the exchange rate can reduce the attractiveness of Korean equities for foreign investors.

By contrast, exchange-rate stability and a return of foreign buying would improve confidence in a KOSPI rebound.

Another key variable is actual semiconductor fundamentals.

Regardless of AI optimism, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix must ultimately show stronger earnings.

Revenue growth, operating margin improvement, and inventory reduction need to occur together for the rally to become more sustainable.

10. Why Samsung Electronics’ possible special dividend matters

Samsung Electronics’ consideration of a special dividend is not simply about paying a larger cash distribution.

Shareholder returns are also interpreted as a signal of confidence in cash flow.

For long-term investors, they can provide psychological support during periods of weakness.

However, even if a special dividend is announced, it does not guarantee a higher share price.

The market may have already priced in part of the expectation, and the effect may be limited if overall market conditions remain weak.

The more important question is whether Samsung Electronics can generate sustained cash flow over time.

Ultimately, the market will focus on the following questions.

How much will Samsung Electronics’ memory profitability recover?
Will HBM competitiveness translate into actual customer revenue?
Will foundry losses narrow?
Will shareholder returns be sustainable rather than one-off?

11. The KOSPI decline from the perspective of the AI semiconductor cycle

From an AI trend perspective, today’s decline looks more like a correction driven by valuation pressure and macro uncertainty than a break in the industry’s growth story.

AI data center investment remains a core priority for global technology leaders.

The ecosystem involving Nvidia GPUs, HBM, high-performance server memory, power infrastructure, and cooling solutions continues to expand.

In the Korean market, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain the primary beneficiaries of this trend.

However, for their share prices to continue rising, AI expectations alone are not sufficient.

HBM competitiveness, yield, customer qualification, pricing power, and margin improvement must all be reflected in earnings.

Accordingly, this correction should not be viewed too pessimistically.

At the same time, it is also risky to assume that AI alone guarantees further gains.

AI semiconductors are a long-term growth theme, but the equity market can still experience sharp swings due to rates and liquidity in the near term.

12. One-sentence summary of today’s KOSPI selloff

Samsung Electronics’ positive news briefly lifted the KOSPI, but the gains were erased as weak U.S. equities, disappointment after the FOMC, Middle East risk, and heavy overhead supply combined to pressure the market.

The most important point is that the KOSPI does not yet have sufficient supply-demand strength to resume a strong upward trend.

At this stage, absorption of overhead supply matters more than positive headlines.

Growth expectations for the semiconductor cycle at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain intact, but further support will depend on more stable rates, exchange rates, and foreign investor flows.

< Summary >

The KOSPI decline reflected weak U.S. equities, Middle East risk, and disappointment after the FOMC rate decision.
Samsung Electronics’ earnings release highlighted LTA long-term supply contracts, shareholder return policy, and possible special dividends.
However, as prices rebounded, selling emerged from investors who were previously underwater.
At present, overhead supply and market liquidity are more important than positive headlines.
AI semiconductor growth remains intact, but confirmation from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings is still needed.
Going forward, investors should monitor U.S. rates, the KRW/USD exchange rate, foreign investor flows, memory pricing, and HBM contract activity.

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*Source: [ 내일은 투자왕 – 김단테 ]

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● Liquidity Surge, US-China Thaw, Election-Fueled Rally

Since August, the market may shift: Liquidity-driven conditions, the U.S.-China summit, and the midterm elections shaping the H2 2026 outlook

The key issue in August is not simply whether stock prices rise or fall.

The more important point is that political events, U.S.-China relations, fiscal policy, M2 money supply, and the U.S. rate outlook may converge from August onward, changing the character of the market.

If May, June, and July were characterized by volatility, August could mark a transition toward a liquidity-driven market.

This report summarizes the U.S. fiscal expansion ahead of the midterm elections, the impact of a U.S.-China summit on inflation, the direction of gold and Bitcoin, and where capital is likely to flow.

1. The starting point for August: Investor sentiment has shifted from FOMO to JOMO

The most common question in recent markets is, “Why does the market fall when I buy, and rise when I sell?”

This reflects sentiment moving between FOMO and JOMO.

FOMO: Fear of missing out on gains.
JOMO: Relief from staying out of the market.

In April, May, and June, investors outside the market feared missing the rally.

Since July, investors already in the market have increasingly felt JOMO amid volatility and declines.

Markets often move contrary to investor emotion.

When FOMO becomes excessive, caution is warranted; when JOMO becomes widespread, contrarian entry points may emerge.

The key point is that short-term trading driven by emotion tends to expose investors to both FOMO and JOMO.

Buying aggressively on rallies and selling on declines creates repeated losses of conviction.

For the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Korean equities, the first question is whether the investor maintains a long-term belief that markets trend higher over time.

Without that view, remaining in equities can become a persistent source of stress.

2. Why market conditions may change from August

August matters because of U.S. political timing.

With the midterm elections in November, the political cycle typically becomes more visible two to three months earlier.

August is therefore a period when U.S. policymakers begin to manage markets and public sentiment more actively.

Governments entering an election cycle generally avoid allowing the economy to appear weak.

Policies aimed at stabilizing inflation, defending growth, and improving market sentiment are more likely to emerge.

In this context, fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy.

Many investors think of liquidity-driven markets only in terms of rate cuts.

However, in H2 2026, liquidity may come less from monetary easing and more from fiscal spending and debt expansion.

In other words, even if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates immediately, government spending can still inject liquidity into markets.

3. The U.S.-China summit: what matters is not true peace, but a manageable détente

Markets may begin to price in September events in August.

The most important event is the U.S.-China summit.

Markets are watching whether Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit the United States and hold a summit with the U.S. administration.

The key issue is not whether the two countries achieve full reconciliation.

What matters is whether they can show, at least publicly, that tensions are being managed.

This is effectively a manageable détente.

For President Trump, a summit before the midterm elections would support the narrative that he delivered a diplomatic and economic result with China.

For China, easing trade tensions with the United States would support export recovery and growth stabilization.

As a result, both sides may present a controlled easing of tensions even without a high-trust relationship.

4. The hidden purpose of the U.S.-China summit: inflation control and Chinese consumer goods

The U.S.-China summit should not be viewed solely as a diplomatic event.

The more important issue is inflation.

If the United States increases imports of Chinese consumer goods, it could help reduce consumer price pressure.

After the tariff conflict, the United States reduced imports of Chinese goods, which added pressure to living costs.

However, if Chinese consumer goods re-enter the U.S. market in large volumes ahead of the midterm elections, year-on-year inflation could moderate.

Inflation is measured on a year-over-year basis.

If fewer Chinese consumer goods were imported last year, and imports rise materially from July and August this year, price stabilization effects could appear.

If core goods inflation and core services inflation remain contained, markets may interpret that as evidence that Chinese imports are helping to suppress inflation.

Energy remains a key variable.

If Middle East tensions or crude supply issues push oil prices higher, July CPI and subsequent inflation data could become more elevated.

Still, stronger imports of Chinese consumer goods could partially offset energy-driven inflation pressures.

5. Middle East risk and a possible period of relative calm through November

Markets also need to monitor Middle East risk.

However, the current scenario suggests the conflict is more likely to move toward negotiation and easing than toward a broader escalation.

If war anxiety eases and U.S.-China relations appear stable on the surface, risk appetite could improve through November.

November also includes the midterm elections and major diplomatic events such as APEC.

From the U.S. perspective, there is limited incentive to allow global tensions to worsen materially before the elections.

Accordingly, the period from the September U.S.-China summit through the November election cycle may support a managed calm.

6. IMF debt warnings may function as a liquidity signal for markets

International institutions are likely to continue warning about debt risks.

The United States, China, and Middle Eastern countries all face rising debt burdens from war costs, reconstruction, fiscal stimulus, and military replenishment.

Debt growth is usually viewed negatively.

But from a capital markets perspective, it should be read differently.

When governments borrow and deploy funds into households, companies, and industry, it acts as market liquidity.

In other words, debt warnings are a long-term risk for economic stability, but in the short term they can signal liquidity expansion for asset markets.

That is one of the most important points for the H2 2026 global outlook.

7. The U.S. OBBA legislation and fiscal expansion: an election-focused cash injection mechanism

Where will U.S. liquidity come from?

The key sources are tax cuts and an expansion of the debt ceiling.

The Trump administration has been preparing tax relief and fiscal expansion with the midterm elections in mind.

The OBBA legislation sits at the center of this framework.

Tax cuts have an effect similar to a direct transfer of cash to households.

Lower taxes increase disposable income for households and companies, which supports consumption and investment.

At the same time, a higher debt ceiling gives the government more room to borrow and spend.

In practical terms, this is similar to raising the limit on a credit line before using it.

Politically, the funds are likely to be deployed during the most important phase of the midterm cycle.

This could channel policy benefits to a broad electorate of more than 300 million people.

This process may widen the fiscal deficit.

U.S. Treasury issuance may also increase.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields may not decline easily.

8. This liquidity phase is not a rate-cut cycle

Many investors ask how liquidity can expand if rates are still elevated or rate cuts are delayed.

Liquidity is not determined by monetary policy alone.

Interest-rate policy is only part of the picture.

Japan is a representative example.

Even with higher rates, stronger fiscal expansion can increase total liquidity.

The United States may follow a similar pattern.

For the U.S. rate outlook in H2 2026, what matters most is not whether the Fed cuts rates immediately, but how strongly fiscal expansion proceeds.

If inflation stabilizes, pressure for further hikes can ease and the conditions for eventual cuts improve.

Even without lower rates, strong fiscal deployment can still support asset prices through liquidity effects.

9. M2 growth: the U.S. may expand money supply more aggressively in the second half

M2 money supply is an important indicator of liquidity.

The United States tends to expand money supply decisively when it does so and contract it decisively when it does not.

By contrast, Korea is more likely to slow the pace of growth than to see outright contraction in M2.

U.S. M2 growth rose to the mid-5% range in May.

This suggests that liquidity, which had been constrained through April, began to expand from May onward.

August and September data will be released later, but by the time the data arrive, the market may have already priced in the move.

The key point is that markets anticipate data rather than wait for it.

If fiscal expansion accelerates and M2 growth continues to rebound, liquidity conditions could strengthen further in September and October.

Another important variable is exchange rates.

When a country expands money supply aggressively, its currency can weaken.

If Korea had relatively faster money growth in the first half, the U.S. may see faster growth in the second half.

This divergence could matter for the USD/KRW outlook.

10. Where will liquidity go: gold, Bitcoin, or equities?

When liquidity rises, capital must move somewhere.

Possible destinations include equities, real estate, cash, deposits, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin, commodities, and agricultural ETFs.

However, not all asset classes rise with equal strength.

The key question for H2 2026 is where liquidity will concentrate most strongly.

11. Gold outlook: supportive liquidity, but limited scope for a strong rally

Higher liquidity can support gold prices.

When the value of money declines, real assets and alternative assets may rise relative to it.

However, a strong gold rally requires several conditions.

First, safe-haven demand must increase.

Second, U.S. Treasury yields must fall.

Third, the dollar must weaken.

These conditions are not fully aligned in the H2 2026 scenario.

If U.S.-China relations move toward détente and Middle East risk eases, safe-haven demand may soften.

At the same time, expanded fiscal deficits and higher Treasury issuance could keep yields elevated.

Higher yields reduce gold’s appeal.

Gold does not generate income.

Therefore, gold may rebound, but a strong sustained uptrend appears limited.

12. Bitcoin outlook: better than gold, but institutionalization remains the key factor

Bitcoin tends to react more sensitively to liquidity than gold.

If choosing between gold and Bitcoin in a liquidity-driven environment, Bitcoin may have relatively better upside.

However, Bitcoin is still driven by an additional factor: institutionalization.

Bitcoin prices respond not only to liquidity, but also to expectations of greater integration into the regulated financial system.

When institutionalization prospects improve, confidence rises and expectations of institutional inflows strengthen.

When those expectations weaken, prices can correct.

Accordingly, Bitcoin should be assessed not only through liquidity conditions but also through regulation and institutional adoption.

Higher Treasury yields can also be a headwind for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin does not generate operating income.

It may outperform gold, but it is not necessarily stronger than equities.

13. Equity outlook: in a high-rate environment, earnings remain the main magnet for capital

In a liquidity-driven market, equities remain the most important asset class.

When U.S. Treasury yields stay elevated, earnings become the primary basis for capital allocation.

Gold does not generate earnings.

Bitcoin does not generate earnings.

Companies, however, generate revenue and profit.

If yields remain at 5%, 6%, or 7%, investors will look for businesses that can deliver stronger growth and earnings expansion than cash or bonds.

Companies with earnings growth of 10%, 20%, or more can attract capital.

Accordingly, a liquidity phase is likely to remain selective rather than broad-based, favoring firms with visible earnings momentum.

In that context, semiconductors and AI-related companies remain important themes.

For H2 2026, the key issue is not whether semiconductors will peak, but how strong the fear of a peak becomes.

Periods of excessive fear can create opportunities to reassess high-quality companies.

14. Implications for the Korean equity market

The Korean equity market is sensitive to global liquidity, the USD/KRW exchange rate, the semiconductor cycle, and U.S. technology shares.

If U.S. fiscal liquidity expands and risk appetite improves, Korean equities could benefit.

In particular, sectors linked to global demand such as semiconductors, AI infrastructure, power equipment, shipbuilding, defense, and export manufacturing may attract attention.

However, instead of a broad rally across all names, the market is more likely to remain differentiated, favoring companies with earnings visibility, order momentum, and confirmed industry cycles.

For Korean investors, the key is to monitor U.S. M2 growth, the U.S.-China summit, fiscal deficits, Treasury yields, and semiconductor earnings expectations rather than focusing only on short-term volatility.

15. The most important points often overlooked in other reports and media coverage

First, debt warnings can be a liquidity signal for asset markets.

Most coverage interprets IMF debt warnings only as a sign of risk.

But if governments expand borrowing and deploy fiscal spending, that can support markets in the near term.

Long-term fiscal sustainability may weaken, but asset prices can still rise in the short term.

Second, the U.S.-China summit is not just a diplomatic event; it is an inflation event.

Greater imports of Chinese consumer goods can help lower U.S. consumer price inflation.

If successful, this can reduce pressure for tighter monetary policy and partly revive rate-cut expectations.

Third, the August market is pricing in September and November events, not just August news.

Markets always discount the future first.

Confirmation of a summit date, midterm election positioning, and APEC-related diplomacy can all influence prices from August onward.

Fourth, earnings matter more than rates.

In a high-yield environment, capital does not automatically flow into risk assets.

It flows toward companies whose earnings growth can justify valuation.

Fifth, a liquidity-driven market does not mean all assets rise equally.

When money loses value, asset prices may rise broadly.

But the strongest performers among gold, Bitcoin, and equities will depend on additional variables.

At present, equities with strong earnings appear more compelling than gold, and Bitcoin may be more attractive than gold but still more speculative than earnings-driven stocks.

16. Key indicators to monitor from August onward

U.S. CPI: Assess whether energy prices are being transmitted into inflation.
Core goods inflation: Monitor whether Chinese consumer imports are easing price pressure.
U.S. M2 money supply: Confirm whether fiscal liquidity is expanding.
U.S. Treasury yields: A key driver of valuation across gold, Bitcoin, and growth equities.
U.S.-China summit schedule: Date confirmation and negotiation topics may be priced in early.
Middle East risk and crude oil: The largest variables for inflation and rate expectations.
Semiconductor earnings outlook: A core driver of AI cycle sentiment and Korean equity performance.

< Summary >

From August, the market may shift from a volatility regime toward a liquidity-driven regime.

The main drivers are the U.S. midterm elections, a possible U.S.-China summit, fiscal expansion, and M2 growth.

The U.S.-China summit should be viewed not only as diplomacy but also as a possible inflation tool through higher imports of Chinese consumer goods.

IMF debt warnings are negative for long-term sustainability, but they can signal fiscal liquidity in the short term.

Gold may face limited upside due to elevated Treasury yields and a calmer geopolitical backdrop.

Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity than gold, but institutionalization remains the key variable.

The most favorable assets are likely to be earnings growth stocks that can outperform high rates, especially semiconductor and AI-related companies.

Investors should focus on U.S. rate expectations, M2 growth, the U.S.-China summit, crude oil, and semiconductor earnings rather than short-term sentiment alone.

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*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 8월부터 시장이 바뀝니다…유동성 장세가 다시 올 수 있습니다 | 경제학교 오프라인 특강 [3편]

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