● Memory Stocks Explode, Rates, AI, and Buybacks Ignite Rally
The Real Reason Memory Semiconductor Stocks Surged Again: Rates, AI Data Centers, Cloud Pricing, and Shareholder Returns All Came Together
This latest rally in memory semiconductors is not simply a matter of “AI is strong.”
The key driver was the decline in U.S. Treasury yields after softer U.S. producer price inflation, which reduced the funding burden for AI data center investment and lifted memory semiconductor stocks such as Micron, SK Hynix ADR, and SanDisk.
In addition, stronger earnings from AI cloud providers, rising GPU rental prices, expanding demand from Anthropic, DeepSeek’s price increase, and SanDisk’s aggressive shareholder return policy all reinforced demand for memory-related equities.
The most important issue in this move is not whether memory demand is healthy, but whether the market can continue to fund AI infrastructure spending.
That is the core point many news reports and videos tend to miss.
1. What Happened in the Market Today: Broad Rally in Memory Semiconductor Stocks
- The Nasdaq rose about 0.81% intraday.
- Micron gained about 6%.
- SK Hynix ADR jumped about 8%.
- SanDisk surged about 15–16% intraday.
- Kospi night futures rose about 2.61%.
At first glance, this appears to be a simple rebound in semiconductor stocks. In practice, the move reflects a clear combination of U.S. inflation data, labor data, Treasury yields, AI data center investment, cloud demand, and shareholder return expectations.
Notably, memory semiconductor stocks outperformed the Nasdaq by a wide margin.
This indicates that the market is currently most sensitive to AI hardware, and memory semiconductors are among the most rate-sensitive names in that group.
2. First Catalyst: U.S. PPI Came in Softer Than Expected
The main macro catalyst for the rally was the latest U.S. producer price index.
The market had expected month-over-month growth of roughly 0.2%, but the actual figure was close to flat.
In practical terms, this means price pressure at the producer level was weaker than expected.
When inflation is more contained, the Federal Reserve has less reason to maintain a more aggressive tightening stance.
Initial jobless claims also came in higher than expected.
That signaled a softer labor market.
When inflation is lower and employment weakens, the market naturally interprets this as follows:
The Fed may find it difficult to keep pushing rates higher.
That expectation drove U.S. Treasury yields lower, which in turn supported the Nasdaq, growth stocks, and especially AI semiconductor names.
3. Why Do Memory Semiconductors React Most Strongly When Rates Fall?
In the past, memory semiconductor stocks mainly reacted to DRAM prices, NAND prices, and inventory cycles.
That structure has changed.
In the AI era, memory semiconductors are no longer just component suppliers; they are core infrastructure assets directly tied to the AI data center investment cycle.
The market’s main concern is no longer AI demand itself.
AI demand is already broadly acknowledged.
The real question is whether hyperscalers have enough capital to keep building AI data centers.
AI data centers require GPUs, HBM, servers, power, cooling, networking equipment, and real estate.
Because the investment scale is so large, hyperscalers cannot rely only on cash flow and must also depend on debt issuance and external financing.
When U.S. yields are high, financing costs rise.
When U.S. yields fall, the ability to sustain AI infrastructure spending improves.
That is why memory semiconductor stocks are now highly sensitive not just to the semiconductor cycle, but also to interest rates and financing conditions.
4. The Real Reason Memory Stocks Had Been Weak: Funding Concerns, Not AI Demand Weakness
The recent decline in memory semiconductor stocks was not caused by a collapse in AI demand.
The market was more concerned about the sustainability of investment in 2027 and beyond than about 2026 earnings.
Hyperscalers and Nvidia must continue raising capital to fund AI infrastructure, but the scale of spending has become large enough to pressure the broader market.
During this period, CDS spreads on Nvidia and some major tech-related names also drew attention.
A CDS spread reflects the market’s assessment of credit risk, or the perceived probability of default.
As CDS spreads moved higher, the market began asking:
Can these companies keep financing AI investment and eventually repay what they borrow?
As this concern intensified, even memory semiconductor stocks, which had been among the strongest AI hardware performers, came under pressure.
The latest PPI moderation and lower-rate signal eased some of that concern.
5. Second Catalyst: Nvidia’s Push to Expand the AI Investment Ecosystem
Another important development is that Nvidia is helping create new funding channels for GPU purchases.
In simple terms, Nvidia is no longer only selling GPUs directly; it is also working to attract external capital from asset managers and funds to expand the GPU purchasing ecosystem.
The market views this as part of Jensen Huang’s broader AI infrastructure strategy.
The key question is whether the AI CAPEX burden can move beyond a model where hyperscalers alone must fund everything.
If external capital enters the system, the investment burden becomes more distributed.
That would help sustain GPU demand, which would also support demand for HBM, DRAM, NAND, and SSDs.
This is positive for Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and other memory semiconductor companies.
6. Third Catalyst: AI Cloud Earnings Came in Better Than Expected
Recent earnings releases showed stronger-than-expected results from AI-related cloud companies.
Nebius and CoreWeave, among others, provided support for the market’s expectations.
Results from AI server suppliers such as Dell and Lenovo were also viewed favorably.
This is not just a thematic rally; it is evidence that real AI infrastructure demand is translating into revenue.
Nebius was particularly notable.
The company said cloud demand is strong enough to support much higher pricing.
Previously, annual revenue per 1MW had been discussed at around $12 million, but recent short-term contract commentary suggested pricing could exceed $40 million per 1MW.
That figure applies to short-term contracts.
Even so, the ability to charge more than three times the level seen earlier this year sends a strong signal to the market.
AI compute demand is not just a narrative; customers are actually paying higher prices.
That signal improved confidence in AI data center investment and memory semiconductor demand.
7. Anthropic Demand Is Expanding: Model Competition Is Increasing Infrastructure Demand
Anthropic remains one of the most closely watched private AI companies.
Market attention has recently increased around its potential IPO, valuation expansion, and annualized revenue growth.
Some reports and market estimates suggest very rapid revenue growth, although valuation and ARR figures vary materially by source and should be treated cautiously.
The important point is not the exact number, but the direction.
Anthropic is growing quickly, and enterprise AI usage is increasing.
A recent Wells Fargo survey of chief information officers was also notable.
Among respondents, Anthropic was frequently cited as the most-used AI model over the past 12 months, and it was also among the most likely models to be used more going forward.
About 47% of respondents reportedly said they expect to increase usage of Anthropic.
This shows that AI model competition is not just about chatbot market share; it also translates into demand for GPUs, AI cloud capacity, data centers, and memory semiconductors.
8. Near-Term Overheating Is Possible: Rising GPU Rental Prices Should Not Be Read Too Literally
There is also a cautionary angle.
Rising AI cloud prices and GPU rental prices may reflect not only structural demand growth, but also temporary supply shortages and one-off demand spikes.
For example, companies such as Anthropic may be paying higher prices to secure compute resources ahead of a potential IPO and to demonstrate stronger growth metrics.
When a limited supply of GPUs is competed over aggressively, rental prices can rise sharply in the short term.
However, whether those price levels are sustainable over the long term is a separate question.
Investors should therefore distinguish between structural demand growth and temporary price spikes caused by supply constraints.
9. China’s AI Models Are Also Raising Prices: Concerns About Low-Cost Competition Have Eased Slightly
Market participants had been concerned that low-priced Chinese AI models could pressure global AI model and cloud pricing.
However, news that DeepSeek’s flagship model is raising prices by roughly 4x has slightly changed the tone.
This suggests that Chinese AI model providers may not be relying solely on low-cost competition to gain share.
High-performance AI models also require significant compute spending.
If those costs must be passed through to customers, AI infrastructure demand and cloud pricing may prove more resilient than many expected.
10. Implications for Korea: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix May See Renewed Inflows
SK Hynix ADR rose about 8% in U.S. trading, and Kospi night futures also advanced sharply.
That suggests a constructive backdrop for major Korean semiconductor names.
Recent declines in volatility in the Korean market are also important.
Lower volatility generally reduces the entry barrier for foreign investors.
Foreign buying has also been visible recently when the market has rallied.
In other words, this may not be a rebound driven only by retail investors; global capital could return to Korean semiconductors.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are central beneficiaries of the AI semiconductor, HBM, and memory cycle.
If U.S. yields remain stable and concerns about AI CAPEX funding continue to ease, Korean large-cap semiconductor stocks may see improved flows.
11. Why SanDisk Surged More Than 15%: Shareholder Returns Were the Decisive Factor
One of the most striking movers in the rally was SanDisk.
At its investor day, the company discussed HBF, margin improvement, and profitability outlook.
It also offered positive commentary on gross margin and free cash flow margin.
But the decisive factor behind the stock’s surge was something else.
SanDisk signaled a strong commitment to returning nearly 100% of free cash flow to shareholders.
That is a powerful signal to the market.
Memory semiconductor companies are cyclical, so investors pay close attention to how profits are allocated when conditions improve.
Whether cash is used for capex, debt reduction, or share repurchases and dividends can materially change valuation.
SanDisk clearly stated that it intends to return cash to shareholders, and the market responded immediately.
12. Shareholder Returns Could Be the Next Catalyst for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
SanDisk’s case has important implications for Korean semiconductor companies.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also seeing stronger earnings expectations as HBM and memory conditions improve.
However, the market no longer focuses only on earnings.
It also focuses on how companies will use the cash they generate.
If global semiconductor companies strengthen shareholder return policies through buybacks, higher dividends, or free cash flow frameworks, Korean names will inevitably be compared against them.
If Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix present stronger shareholder return policies, that could become a new catalyst for share price appreciation.
If not, valuation expansion may remain limited even if earnings improve.
13. The Most Important Point Often Missed in Other Coverage
First, memory semiconductor stocks are now more sensitive to financial liquidity than to the semiconductor cycle itself.
AI demand is already known.
The real variable is whether hyperscalers and AI companies can continue raising enough capital to meet that demand.
That is why U.S. Treasury yields, the corporate bond market, CDS spreads, and external financing structures have become key drivers of memory stock performance.
Second, rising AI cloud prices are a real-time pricing signal for memory demand.
The discussion of higher revenue per 1MW at Nebius is not just an earnings comment.
It is evidence that customers are paying more for AI compute resources.
If that signal persists, GPU, HBM, SSD, and server demand will be further validated.
Third, shareholder returns may reshape the valuation framework for memory semiconductor stocks.
SanDisk did not rally simply because earnings guidance improved.
The market reacted to a clear commitment to return free cash flow to shareholders.
If Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix strengthen their shareholder return policies, global investors may reassess their valuation frameworks.
Fourth, the key question for the AI investment cycle is not 2026, but 2027 and beyond.
The market has already priced in a good probability of strong 2026 results.
The real debate is whether AI CAPEX can continue rising in the second half of 2027 and in 2028.
Lower rates and external capital inflows are gradually improving the answer to that question.
14. Key Indicators to Watch from an Investment Perspective
- Track U.S. PPI and CPI trends.
- Monitor whether U.S. Treasury yields remain stable.
- Watch the scale and pricing of corporate bond issuance by hyperscalers.
- Check whether CDS spreads on Nvidia and major tech names begin rising again.
- Follow AI cloud pricing and GPU rental rates, including revenue per 1MW.
- Review HBM supply outlooks for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics.
- Assess whether strong shareholder return policies like SanDisk’s spread to other memory companies.
- Watch for continued foreign net buying in large-cap Korean semiconductor stocks.
15. Conclusion: This Memory Rally Is a Funding-Risk Relief Rally, Not Just an AI Theme Trade
This surge in memory semiconductor stocks is more than a simple rebound.
Softer U.S. PPI and weaker labor data reduced rate pressure and eased concerns about funding AI data center expansion.
At the same time, AI cloud providers showed real demand and pricing power.
Growth expectations for AI model companies such as Anthropic also supported GPU and memory demand.
In addition, SanDisk’s strong shareholder return message highlighted the possibility of a valuation rerating across the memory sector.
Going forward, the three main factors for memory semiconductor stocks are clear.
Whether rates remain stable.
Whether AI CAPEX funding continues to flow.
How much cash companies return to shareholders.
If those conditions hold, the memory semiconductor cycle led by Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and SanDisk could remain strong.
< Summary >
The key driver behind the surge in memory semiconductor stocks was softer U.S. PPI and weaker labor data, which pushed down U.S. Treasury yields and eased concerns about funding AI data center investment.
Micron, SK Hynix ADR, and SanDisk all surged, and the move may support large-cap Korean semiconductor names.
Strong earnings from AI cloud companies such as Nebius and CoreWeave, expanding Anthropic demand, and DeepSeek’s price increase indicate that AI compute demand remains firm.
SanDisk surged after signaling a willingness to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders, which may become an important valuation catalyst for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Investors should now monitor not only memory pricing, but also rates, AI CAPEX funding, CDS spreads, foreign inflows, and shareholder return policies.
[Related Articles…]
- AI Semiconductor Supercycle and HBM Market Outlook
- How U.S. Rate Changes Affect the Nasdaq and Growth Stocks
*Source: [ 내일은 투자왕 – 김단테 ]
– 메모리 주식 다시 폭등하는 이유
● PPI-Softens-Fed-Cut-Bets-Surge
U.S. July PPI Shows Price Stability, Reviving Rate-Cut Expectations: Key Drivers
The key point in the latest U.S. July Producer Price Index release is not simply that inflation came in below expectations.
The main takeaways are that U.S. PPI appears to have peaked in May, that CPI and PPI are both showing signs of topping out, and that the pass-through from a rebound in crude oil prices has remained limited.
In addition, rising imports of Chinese consumer goods and components following the U.S.-China summit may also be contributing to a shift in the U.S. inflation outlook and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
In other words, this release is not just another inflation print. It is a potential inflection point for the FOMC, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and global financial markets.
1. Key Takeaways from the U.S. July PPI Release
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the final demand Producer Price Index for July was unchanged month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The market had expected a 0.2% increase, so the headline PPI came in below consensus.
June PPI was revised up to -0.1% from the previously reported -0.3%.
After a 0.5% increase in May, a 0.1% decline in June, and a flat reading in July, producer price pressure is clearly easing.
On an unadjusted basis, the PPI rose 4.7% over the past 12 months.
That was also below the market consensus of 4.9%, indicating softer-than-expected inflation on a year-over-year basis as well.
However, core producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% month over month.
That was faster than the 0.1% increase in June, suggesting that while the broader inflation peak may be behind us, underlying pressure has not fully disappeared.
2. Price Stability Was Driven Mainly by Energy and Goods
The main factor behind the lower PPI reading was weaker goods prices.
Final demand goods prices fell 0.7% month over month.
By contrast, final demand services rose 0.2%, and construction prices increased 2.2%.
In other words, price pressure remained present in services and construction, but it was offset by lower goods prices.
Energy prices were particularly important, declining 3.1% from the previous month.
Gasoline prices fell 5.7% and accounted for more than half of the overall decline in goods prices.
Prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, and thermoplastic resins also declined.
Food prices fell 0.9%.
By contrast, prices for automobiles and parts increased 0.3%, and electricity prices also rose.
Overall, this PPI report suggests that the decline in energy and goods prices outweighed inflationary pressure in services, rather than indicating that service inflation has been fully contained.
3. Why PPI Matters: A Wholesale Measure That Often Leads CPI
PPI measures producer prices.
In simple terms, it reflects the wholesale price level businesses face when producing or importing goods before they move into distribution.
CPI measures consumer prices.
It captures the prices people actually pay at grocery stores, gas stations, restaurants, and online retailers.
In many cases, changes in PPI flow into CPI with a lag of two to three months.
Therefore, if PPI has been stabilizing in May, June, and July, CPI is also more likely to remain stable in August and September.
That is why this release matters.
With CPI also showing a three-month easing trend, the market is increasingly viewing the July PPI as further evidence that U.S. inflation has likely passed its peak.
4. Why the Peak-Out Signal for U.S. Inflation Has Strengthened
The central argument in this analysis is that U.S. inflation appears to have peaked in May.
CPI has shown stabilization since May, and PPI has followed the same pattern.
Core inflation has also been volatile in the short term, but the broader trend points to moderation after the peak.
Inflation expectations falling to around 2.4% have also supported market sentiment.
Inflation expectations matter as much as realized inflation.
When businesses and consumers expect prices to keep rising, wages, pricing, and spending behavior all tend to reinforce inflation.
When expectations move lower, inflationary pressure tends to ease as well.
This combination of data suggests that U.S. inflation is moving back into a more controllable range.
5. Remaining Variables: PCE Inflation and August Data
The Federal Reserve places greater weight on PCE inflation than on CPI.
In particular, core PCE is a key input in FOMC rate decisions.
According to the original analysis, July PCE is scheduled for release at the end of August, and both headline and core PCE may continue to moderate.
The suggested scenario was a decline in core PCE toward 3.2% from 3.4% or 3.3%.
August inflation is even more important.
If May, June, and July all showed easing price pressure, then August inflation data, due in September, could remain softer.
If core PCE moves into the high-2% range, markets will likely begin questioning whether policy rates are still too restrictive.
At that point, expectations for rate cuts could strengthen materially.
6. Why Oil Price Rebounds Did Not Trigger a Larger Inflation Move
One of the most notable points in this analysis is crude oil.
When geopolitical tensions rise and oil prices rebound, inflation risk typically increases.
Higher crude prices usually feed into gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel prices.
They can then spread into transportation costs, fertilizers, grain prices, feed prices, and restaurant prices.
If that transmission becomes strong, the economy faces a stagflation risk.
However, the July CPI and PPI releases showed limited pass-through despite the rebound in crude oil.
That is significant.
It suggests the oil shock did not spread aggressively into broader goods and services prices.
The original analysis attributes this partly to weak domestic demand and partly to increased imports of Chinese consumer goods and components.
7. U.S.-China Summit and Inflation: An Underappreciated Factor
Most coverage of PPI focuses only on the headline number and rate expectations.
However, the most important interpretation in the original piece is that the U.S.-China summit may have contributed to lower inflation through increased imports of Chinese goods.
For the Trump administration, inflation control is important ahead of the midterm elections.
Lower inflation reduces pressure for further tightening and can support rate-cut expectations.
From China’s perspective, stronger exports to the U.S. are also beneficial.
As a result, the U.S. may again be relying more on lower-cost Chinese consumer goods and components, while China benefits from stronger export demand.
The original analysis notes that after the May meeting in Beijing, tariff pressures on some IT products and consumer goods eased, and Chinese exports to the U.S. accelerated.
From January through April, export growth to the U.S. was weak or negative, but a stronger trend emerged from May onward.
June reportedly showed the highest level of U.S.-bound export momentum so far this year.
This can be interpreted as front-loading, meaning shipments were accelerated before tariff conditions worsened again.
Higher imports of semiconductors, computer parts, AI-related components, and consumer goods can reduce U.S. manufacturing costs, wholesale prices, and consumer prices.
This is one of the most distinctive points in the interpretation of the July PPI report.
8. CPI Composition: The Energy Shock Did Not Spread into Core Inflation
Another important point is the composition of inflation contributions.
The key question is how much the rise and subsequent decline in energy prices affected food, core goods, and core services.
In this case, energy’s contribution rose temporarily and then declined, but it did not spread strongly into other categories.
Core services prices also appear to have stabilized after peaking.
This suggests that U.S. inflation did not enter a second-round acceleration phase.
If the oil shock had pushed up services, wages, dining costs, and housing-related costs, the Fed would likely have remained much more hawkish.
Instead, the policy environment is shifting toward a prolonged pause and, eventually, conditional rate-cut discussions.
9. Market Reaction: Lower Treasury Yields, Softer Dollar, Supportive for Equities
The immediate market reaction to the PPI release was reduced concern about further rate hikes.
Based on CME FedWatch pricing, rate-hike odds declined while the probability of a hold increased.
According to the original analysis, the hold expectation strengthened further after the PPI release, following the CPI report the previous day.
The market now sees a higher likelihood of no change at the September FOMC meeting, with hold expectations also extending into October.
This kind of shift typically puts downward pressure on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.
When inflation pressure eases, long-term yields usually move lower.
Lower Treasury yields can also weaken the dollar index.
With financing costs easing, technology and growth stocks tend to benefit.
That is generally supportive for risk assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and KOSPI.
That said, the market response could change if geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify, the Strait of Hormuz becomes more threatened, or oil prices rise sharply again.
10. Policy Outlook: Further Hikes Look Unlikely; Cuts Will Depend on Data
The base case for U.S. monetary policy is now a hold.
Although inflation is cooling, core PPI still rose 0.4% month over month, which makes an immediate rate cut unlikely.
However, the probability of additional rate hikes has fallen significantly.
The original analysis describes the market view that the risk of further tightening has effectively gone to zero.
A rate cut is still premature, but if August and September data continue to soften, the situation could change.
If core PCE falls into the high-2% range, arguments that current policy is too restrictive will gain traction.
The Fed still has to balance inflation stability against the risk of economic slowdown.
Keeping rates elevated for too long while inflation is easing could weaken growth and employment.
11. Global Rate Trends: The U.S. Cannot Be Viewed in Isolation
The original analysis also referenced policy rate trends in South Korea, the euro area, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Countries that cut rates relatively early later faced renewed inflation and in some cases had to reverse course.
By contrast, countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. that maintained higher rates for longer have less need for additional tightening, even if inflation rebounds somewhat.
This should be viewed through the lens of real policy rates.
If nominal rates remain sufficiently above inflation, central banks may not need to raise rates further to sustain a restrictive stance.
Because the U.S. did not ease too quickly, it is now less exposed to renewed tightening pressure.
12. Key 2026 U.S. and Korean Policy Dates
For investors, the key issue is not simply whether rates will eventually be cut, but which meetings may deliver a shift in guidance.
The main 2026 FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 27-28, March 17-18, April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9, U.S. local time.
March, June, September, and December meetings are especially important because they often include economic projections and the dot plot.
The Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meets eight times a year.
Korean policy decisions are shaped by the FOMC, KRW/USD exchange rates, household debt, real estate prices, consumer inflation, and export momentum.
If the U.S. sends stronger signals of rate cuts, the Bank of Korea may gain room to ease as well.
Conversely, if the dollar remains firm and the exchange rate becomes more volatile, Korea is likely to move later than the U.S.
13. Key Variables to Watch Next
First, the PCE inflation report due at the end of August.
Because the Fed places the greatest weight on this measure, it may have more policy impact than CPI or PPI.
Second, comments from the Jackson Hole symposium.
The original analysis suggests that Fed remarks in the final week of August could have an outsized market impact.
If policymakers use alternative measures such as trimmed-mean PCE to justify the case for cuts, markets could react strongly.
Third, crude oil prices and Middle East developments.
If oil rises sharply again and the energy shock spreads into food and services, rate-cut expectations could quickly fade.
Fourth, the flow of Chinese exports to the U.S.
Continued growth in imports of Chinese consumer goods and components would support goods-price stability in the U.S.
Conversely, renewed tariff escalation could reintroduce import-price pressure.
The Most Important Point Not Highlighted Elsewhere
The real significance of this PPI release is not just that inflation came in soft.
The more important point is that U.S. inflation remained contained even as oil prices rebounded.
That implies the energy shock did not materially spread into core goods or services inflation.
One possible reason is increased imports of Chinese consumer goods, IT components, and AI-related parts following the U.S.-China summit.
In practical terms, the U.S. may be using lower-cost Chinese supply to restrain inflation, while China benefits from stronger exports to the U.S.
Viewed this way, the current inflation slowdown is not only a result of weaker demand, but also of political, trade, tariff, and supply-chain adjustments.
Going forward, the U.S. inflation outlook should not be assessed solely through oil prices.
Chinese exports to the U.S., tariff policy, import prices, and AI and IT supply chains also need to be monitored closely.
< Summary >
U.S. July PPI was unchanged month over month, below market expectations.
The year-over-year rate also came in at 4.7%, below consensus, reinforcing signs that inflation has peaked.
Goods prices and lower energy costs were the main drivers of stability in producer prices.
However, core PPI rose 0.4% month over month, indicating that inflation is not yet fully subdued.
With CPI and PPI both easing, the probability of further rate hikes has fallen sharply and rate-cut expectations have strengthened.
The most important factor is that inflation did not accelerate meaningfully despite a rebound in crude oil prices.
Increased imports of Chinese consumer goods and components following the U.S.-China summit may have supported inflation stability.
Key variables ahead are PCE inflation, Jackson Hole, FOMC meetings, crude oil, and Chinese export flows to the U.S.
[Related Articles…]
- U.S. PCE Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy Implications
- Crude Oil and Inflation Transmission in U.S. Markets
*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]
– [속보] 미국 7월 PPI 물가 예상치 부합… 미국 물가 피크아웃 확실시. 금리인하 기대감 재고조 [즉시분석]
