English Summary

Electric vehicle (EV) battery replacement is on track to become cheaper than repairing a gas engine in the near future. A study by Recurrent, supported by calculations from Goldman Sachs and others, predicts that this could happen as early as 2030.

Goldman Sachs projects EV battery prices to drop to $80 per kWh by 2026, a 50% reduction compared to 2023. Some analysts, like those from RMI, estimate even lower costs, potentially reaching $32 per kWh. This significant price drop is attributed to declining battery metal costs, such as lithium and cobalt, which constitute approximately 60% of battery production costs.

The report details that by 2030, replacing a 100 kWh EV battery pack could cost as low as $4,500 to $5,000—or even $3,375 for a 75 kWh pack. This marks an almost 70% decrease from 2020 prices. These reductions are expected to benefit both EV manufacturers and consumers by improving affordability, lowering ownership costs, and accelerating EV adoption.

< Summary >

• Header: EV battery replacement costs are expected to undercut gas engine repair costs by 2030.

• Details:

  • EV battery costs are projected to drop to $80/kWh by 2026, with some estimates as low as $32/kWh by 2030.
  • The price of lithium-ion materials like lithium and cobalt is expected to continue decreasing, causing significant cost reductions for battery production.
  • Replacement for a 100 kWh battery pack could fall to $4,500–$5,000, comparable to gas engine repairs.

• Core Message:

- The EV sector is maturing, and declining battery costs will make ownership more accessible.
- These changes are likely to boost EV sales and reassure consumers about long-term maintenance affordability.

< 핵심내용 요약 >

• 헤더: 전기차 배터리 교체 비용이 2030년까지 내연기관 엔진 수리 비용보다 저렴해질 전망.

• 세부사항:

  • 2026년까지 배터리 비용이 kWh당 $80으로 하락 예측, 2030년에는 최소 $32까지 하락할 가능성 제시.
  • 리튬, 코발트 같은 배터리 소재 비용이 감소하며, 제조 비용 절감이 지속될 예정.
  • 100 kWh 배터리 교체 비용이 약 $4,500~$5,000로 예상되며, 일반 엔진 교체 비용과 비슷한 수준.

• 핵심 메시지:

- 배터리 비용 감소로 전기차 소유 비용이 줄어들면서 대중화에 기여할 것으로 전망.
- 소비자는 전기차 배터리 유지 비용에 대한 부담이 완화될 것임.

– Crafted by Billy Yang
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