The world we live in is full of uncertainty. However, most people seek certainty and try to achieve success through it. The problem is that this world is constantly changing, and countless variables that we are unaware of are at play. Let's explore how we can embrace and utilize this uncertainty through probabilistic thinking.
Ⅰ. Probabilistic Thinking and Its Importance
1. What is Probabilistic Thinking?
Probabilistic thinking is a way of thinking that allows us to make the best choices in situations where nothing is 100% certain. It doesn't mean mathematically calculating every outcome, but rather embracing possible options and their potential consequences with an open mind.
Key Points:
- It questions the assumption that anything is "100% certain" in a given situation.
- It prepares for the unexpected with the mindset that "there are other possibilities."
2. Why is Probabilistic Thinking Necessary?
Modern society is rapidly changing, and unexpected events occur frequently. Having a probabilistic mindset allows us to pursue goals from a long-term, stable perspective without being fixated on short-term success.
Examples:
- In the stock market, it allows you to see the big picture without being swayed by short-term dips.
- In personal choices, it enables you to see failures as part of a process.
Ⅱ. Uncertainty and Its Relationship with Everyday Life
1. Hidden Uncertainty in Everyday Life
Our daily routines may seem certain on the surface, but if you look closely, small coincidences determine our lives.
- Cases of obtaining current jobs through friends met in childhood.
- Experiences where a chance conversation during an interview led to acceptance.
All these are, in fact, the results of coincidences that happened outside of our control.
2. Coexisting with Coincidence
Even if we try to ignore chance, the world is ultimately a web of countless variables.
- "Why did I marry that person?"
- "Why did I end up working for that company?"
Our decisions are always filled with uncertain factors. Therefore, adopting the attitude that "it could be that way" is crucial.
Ⅲ. A New Perspective on Success and Failure
1. The Misconception That Results are Everything
Many people judge success and failure solely based on the outcome. However, this is a biased way of thinking. A good result does not guarantee that the process was correct.
Problems:
- Success can sometimes be the result of luck.
- Failure may not be due to a flawed process itself but simply the result of momentary variables.
Understanding the process from a probabilistic point of view, rather than just the outcome, can lead to more long-term success.
2. Historical Lessons: The Trap of Power
Leaders in power fail because they lose their probabilistic thinking along the way.
- Oda Nobunaga: He pursued an unconditional 'winning strategy' and absolutized his judgment, leading to his defeat.
- Toyotomi Hideyoshi: He reached the peak of power, ignored advice from those around him, and repeated wrong decisions.
These cases show that if we don't maintain probabilistic thinking, we can be consumed by short-term success and face greater failures in the end.
Ⅳ. Strategies for Sustainable Success
1. Ordinary People and Long-Term Success
People who appear ordinary rather than those with genius or charisma often maintain success for longer periods.
Examples:
- Tokugawa Ieyasu achieved long-term peace with stable leadership that was neither excessive nor lacking.
- Octavian of Rome was not an outstanding figure but led the Roman Empire stably.
Lessons:
- Long-term success is achieved with consistent, continuous effort rather than extraordinary and bold actions.
- It's important to practice a gradual and stable approach to success rather than being obsessed with short-term victories.
2. Example of the American System
The United States is characterized by continuously correcting and developing failures rather than fearing short-term ones.
- The short presidential terms are part of a system designed so that even if mistakes are made, the next leadership can correct them.
- In corporate culture, success is often achieved through the power of systems and teamwork rather than individual capabilities.
Ⅴ. Probabilistic Stock Investing and Personal Attitude
1. How to Utilize Probability in Stock Investing
The stock market moves based on chance and human psychology. The key is to admit that "not everything can be predicted."
Practices:
- Make data-driven decisions without being swayed by cognitive biases.
- Hold high-quality stocks in the long term and invest in the growth potential of the entire market.
- Designing a sustainable revenue structure is key rather than short-term gains.
2. Preparing for the Uncertainty of the Future
Rather than blindly trusting intuition, think based on data and be prepared to accept unexpected results.
- Acknowledging uncertainty allows you to learn more from mistakes and failures.
- Avoid the conviction that your actions are always correct and embrace diverse opinions.
Conclusion: Consistency Creates Long-Term Success
Embracing probabilistic thinking and acknowledging uncertainty allows you to achieve long-term success without being swayed by short-term temptations.
- Coincidence and uncertainty always exist in our lives.
- Don't be consumed by small successes and constantly review your approach.
- Remember that ordinary people are more likely to be stable leaders.
Based on this, introduce probabilistic thinking into all aspects of your life. A mindset that embraces opportunity and failure is essential for long-lasting success.
Keywords:
- Probabilistic Thinking
- Uncertainty
- Long-Term Success
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