PCE Shock, S&P 500 Stalls, SoftBank Bets Big on AI

● PCE Shock, Risk Assets Brace, Yields Jump

U.S. PCE Inflation Immediate Analysis: Not an Inflation Shock, but Near-Term Market Volatility Is Likely

The key issue in this U.S. PCE inflation release is not simply that the figure came in 0.1 percentage point above expectations.

The central question is whether U.S. inflation is reaccelerating, or whether the disinflation trend is merely pausing.

This data point also had the potential to move the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook, U.S. Treasury yields, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and the broader macro outlook at the same time.

The release was particularly important because the U.S. PCE inflation data and the second-quarter GDP revision were published simultaneously, making it a key test of whether the Fed will prioritize inflation or growth.

In the near term, the data is a negative for markets.

In the medium term, however, it does not yet indicate that the inflation peak has been broken or that the disinflation trend has ended.

1. U.S. PCE Inflation Results: Headline Above Forecast, Core in Line

U.S. PCE inflation rate: consensus 3.6% → actual 3.7%
Core PCE inflation rate: consensus 3.3% → actual 3.3%
U.S. Q2 GDP revision: initial 1.5% → revised 1.5%

The market’s initial focus was on the headline PCE figure.

Consensus had been 3.6%, but the actual reading came in at 3.7%.

Although the gap is only 0.1 percentage point, markets may treat it as meaningful.

That is because expectations had already shifted toward a clear disinflation trend.

Core PCE came in at 3.3%, exactly in line with expectations.

However, the fact that core inflation did not move lower means the Fed cannot view the report as fully reassuring.

2. Immediate Market Reaction: Negative for Equities, Crypto, and Gold; Upward Pressure on Treasury Yields

The market is likely to react negatively in the short term.

Headline PCE came in above expectations, which may prompt a reassessment of the timing of Fed rate cuts.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure.

By contrast, equities and risk assets such as Bitcoin may come under pressure.

Gold prices may also show near-term volatility.

Equities: possible near-term correction as rate-cut expectations ease
Bitcoin and digital assets: downside pressure as liquidity expectations weaken
U.S. Treasury yields: upward pressure as inflation concerns reemerge
Gold: likely volatility driven by rates and dollar movements

On the day, there is little reason for markets to respond positively.

That is why this release is better characterized as a short-term inflation spike rather than a full inflation shock.

3. Medium-Term View: The Disinflation Trend Remains Intact

Short-term market reaction and medium-term interpretation should be separated.

Markets may react to the higher-than-expected PCE print today.

But over the next several sessions, attention will return to the broader trend.

That trend still points to inflation having peaked and eased from prior highs.

Headline PCE has declined from a peak near 4.1% and remains at 3.7%.

This reading is unchanged, not reaccelerating sharply.

Core PCE also appears to have peaked near 3.4% and is now holding around 3.3%.

The market would have preferred a clearer decline, but there is no evidence here of renewed upward momentum.

This distinction is important.

Disinflation does not occur in a straight line.

It often includes pauses and modest rebounds.

As long as the broader trajectory is lower, the disinflation narrative remains valid.

4. Why This PCE Release Matters More: It Reflects the July Oil Shock

This PCE report covers July data.

July was a period when crude oil and Middle East risks again unsettled markets.

Geopolitical tensions, including concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and supply disruption risks, were elevated.

Oil prices briefly moved toward the $100 per barrel area.

Against that backdrop, the fact that PCE did not reaccelerate sharply is important.

Although the headline reading was 0.1 percentage point above forecasts, inflation did not surge despite the energy shock.

This supports a view of slowing disinflation rather than renewed inflation acceleration.

Oil is unlikely to return immediately to the pre-conflict $55 level.

However, if geopolitical risks ease and ceasefire expectations persist, crude could stabilize in the $60 to $70 range.

That would create scope for softer inflation readings in the August and September data.

5. CPI and PPI Trends Still Support the Case for Price Stability

PCE alone may appear inconclusive.

However, when CPI and PPI are considered together, the picture becomes clearer.

U.S. CPI has recently moved lower for two consecutive months after peaking.

PPI has also continued to decline from its peak.

PPI is often viewed as a leading indicator for CPI and PCE.

When producer prices stabilize first, consumer inflation and PCE typically follow with a lag.

For that reason, a weaker-than-expected July PCE reading should not be interpreted as evidence of renewed inflation.

There remains room for stabilization to be confirmed again in the August and September data.

6. U.S. Q2 GDP Revision: Not a Recession, but Not Strong Growth Either

The revised U.S. Q2 GDP reading came in at 1.5%.

This was unchanged from the initial estimate.

It was not a major market surprise.

Still, the growth picture does not point to a strongly expanding economy.

Even with rising capital expenditure in AI, data centers, and semiconductor manufacturing, growth remains around 1.5%.

This does not indicate recession, but it also does not suggest strong overheating.

The U.S. economy is best described as neither weak nor strongly hot.

That creates a challenge for the Fed.

Inflation remains above target, while growth is not particularly strong.

In such an environment, it is difficult for the Fed to cut rates aggressively, but also difficult to justify another hike immediately.

7. Fed Rate Outlook: Rate-Hike Concerns Have Increased Again

Before the release, markets had increasingly priced in a September hold.

After the higher PCE headline, rate-hike concerns have risen again.

Before the release, September hold probability: around 64%
After the release, September hold probability: around 59.6%
Before the release, rate-hike probability: around 36%
After the release, rate-hike probability: around 40%

In other words, the market shifted modestly away from rate cuts and toward a hold-or-hike bias.

This does not mean a Fed hike is now highly likely.

What matters is that expectations have become less dovish.

In financial markets, expectations often matter more than the policy decision itself.

This PCE release reduced rate-cut expectations and increased concern about a possible hike.

8. Fed Policy: A Hold Is the Natural Choice, but Political Considerations Could Support Easier Policy

From a pure policy standpoint, holding rates steady remains the most natural course of action.

Inflation is still above target.

With core PCE at 3.3%, a near-term rate cut is difficult to justify.

Political considerations, however, are different.

As the political cycle intensifies, pressure to stabilize growth and financial markets may increase.

In that case, the Fed may place greater emphasis on alternative inflation measures, including trimmed-mean PCE.

If those measures signal clearer price stability, a case for easing could emerge.

The key question is whether the Fed maintains a hawkish stance centered on core PCE, or whether it pivots toward a more dovish interpretation using alternative measures.

9. Jackson Hole and Fed Communication Will Set the Next Market Direction

After this PCE report, the market’s next focus shifts to Jackson Hole.

The Fed Chair’s wording will matter.

Markets want a message that price stability is sufficiently established.

By contrast, any statement that inflation remains elevated and that further tightening cannot be ruled out could trigger another market pullback.

Jackson Hole is not just a speaking event.

It is a signal for the September and October FOMC path.

Given the higher-than-expected PCE reading, every word from the Fed is likely to carry greater market impact.

10. Rising Chinese Imports and the U.S.-China Summit: A Key but Often Overlooked Disinflation Factor

One of the most important but underappreciated factors is the increase in Chinese imports.

Lower-cost Chinese goods can directly ease U.S. inflation.

Since May, U.S. imports from China have increased sharply.

With tariff relief and improved U.S.-China sentiment, shipments of consumer goods, intermediate goods, IT products, and essentials have accelerated.

This is often described as front-loading.

In practice, firms are rushing shipments before tariffs rise again.

This can materially support U.S. price stability.

If Chinese imports were constrained in 2025, then 2026 could see a renewed inflow of lower-cost goods and downward pressure on inflation.

That could help ease goods inflation and, in some categories, service inflation as well.

This is why the U.S.-China summit matters.

For the U.S., price stability is politically and economically important.

The summit should therefore be viewed not only as a diplomatic event, but also as part of the inflation management framework.

If the late-September U.S.-China meeting produces signals of tariff relief, higher imports, or supply-chain normalization, markets may interpret that as disinflationary.

11. Crude Oil and Middle East Risk: Energy Remains the Main Inflation Variable

The most important driver of the current inflation path remains oil.

The recent rise in inflation has been driven primarily by energy prices.

Core goods and core services have not shown a broad-based surge; instead, oil and energy have pushed the data higher.

If Middle East risks ease and oil prices stabilize, PCE and CPI could move lower again.

If tensions around the Strait of Hormuz or supply disruptions reemerge, inflation could reaccelerate.

At present, markets are pricing in reduced geopolitical risk.

Expectations of ceasefire progress and smoother oil transport are already reflected in prices.

However, the underlying risk has not disappeared.

Oil stability therefore remains a key variable to monitor.

12. Bank of Korea Policy Outlook: Hold Appears More Likely Than Further Tightening

Separately from the U.S. PCE report, the Bank of Korea’s policy path remains important.

Current conditions suggest that another rate hike is less likely than a hold.

First, the effects of previous tightening still need to be assessed.
Second, recent domestic inflation readings have eased from the prior month.
Third, the won-dollar exchange rate has stabilized quickly.

A rapid decline in the exchange rate makes consecutive hikes more difficult to justify.

While exchange-rate stabilization is positive, a sharp move lower could pressure exporters’ pricing power and margins.

For that reason, a hold-and-observe approach appears more appropriate for the Bank of Korea.

13. Investment Strategy: Focus on the Macroeconomic Trend, Not a Single Data Point

Equities, crypto, gold, and bonds all move within the broader macro cycle.

Company-specific earnings and sector trends matter, but the main direction is set by inflation, rates, liquidity, and growth.

This PCE release may increase near-term volatility in risk assets.

But the key test will be whether CPI, PPI, and PCE stabilize again in August.

If inflation data soften as oil stabilizes, rate-cut expectations could recover.

That would support a rebound in equities and Bitcoin.

If inflation surprises to the upside again, Treasury yields could rise further and equity corrections could deepen.

14. Key Points That Are Often Missed in Other Coverage

First, this PCE report is better described as a slowdown in disinflation than a shock.
The data was above expectations, but it does not show a renewed inflation uptrend.
Second, the fact that PCE did not surge despite the July oil shock is meaningful.
Inflation did not accelerate materially even with higher energy prices.
Third, rising Chinese imports may become an important disinflationary force.
The U.S.-China summit and tariff policy are relevant to inflation, not just trade diplomacy.
Fourth, rate-cut expectations matter more than actual cuts in the short term.
Markets reprice expectations before the Fed actually changes policy.
Fifth, the August inflation data will be the real test.
The next CPI, PPI, and PCE releases will show whether the oil-driven inflation pressure is temporary.

15. Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Jackson Hole meeting: Fed inflation assessment and policy guidance
September U.S. CPI: confirmation of August price trends
September U.S. PPI: leading signal for future CPI and PCE
September FOMC: final pricing of hold, hike, or cut expectations
U.S.-China summit: tariffs, imports, and supply-chain normalization
Crude oil trend: monitoring Middle East and Strait of Hormuz risks
Nvidia earnings: confirmation of the AI investment cycle and Nasdaq sentiment

< Summary >

U.S. PCE inflation came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% consensus.

Core PCE was 3.3%, in line with expectations.

Revised U.S. Q2 GDP was 1.5%, unchanged from the initial estimate.

In the near term, the data is negative for risk assets such as equities and Bitcoin, and supportive of higher U.S. Treasury yields.

In the medium term, however, it does not yet indicate that the inflation peak or disinflation trend has been broken.

Key variables ahead include oil stabilization, the U.S.-China summit, rising Chinese imports, and August CPI and PPI data.

From a policy perspective, the Fed has limited room for cuts under current inflation conditions, but market expectations may shift again depending on political factors and upcoming inflation data.

[Related Articles…]

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [LIVE] 미국 PCE 물가 심층분석 : ‘인플레 쇼크’ 오는가? [즉시분석]

● PCE Shock, S-P 500 Stall, SoftBank AI Gamble

S&P 500 Late-Cycle Debate, PCE Inflation Surprise, and SoftBank’s OpenAI Debt Bet

The key issue for markets today is not simply that U.S. equities declined.

A hotter-than-expected PCE price index weakened expectations for Fed U.S. rate cuts, while Wall Street also warned that the S&P 500 may have limited room for further gains.

At the same time, Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank is pursuing large-scale bond issuance ahead of OpenAI’s planned listing, effectively adding another layer of leverage to its AI investment strategy.

Bill Gates warned that AI is already disrupting employment faster than society is prepared to manage, while the United States and China are intensifying their AI competition in Egypt.

Although the surface narrative is a standard market briefing, the underlying issue is the contest between “AI bubble versus productivity revolution” and “whether the Fed can cut rates or not.”

1. New York market overview: equities and bonds weaken after the PCE release

U.S. equities opened cautiously on August 26.

U.S. stock futures weakened immediately after the PCE release.

Dow futures: slightly weaker
S&P 500 futures: down about 0.14%
Nasdaq 100 futures: down about 0.41%
Russell 2000 futures: down about 0.3%

The Nasdaq showed the sharpest decline.

The reason is straightforward.

When inflation comes in hotter than expected, the probability of near-term Fed rate cuts falls, and growth-sensitive technology and AI-related stocks are usually hit first.

The bond market also weakened.

Bond prices fell and yields moved higher.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.65%
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: about 4.21%

The simultaneous decline in equities and bonds is significant.

It suggests the market interpreted the data as evidence that inflation remains sticky.

2. PCE price index: an uncomfortable reading for the Fed

The most important economic release today was the July PCE price index.

The PCE is the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely when setting policy.

July PCE month over month: up 0.2%
Market expectation: up 0.1%
July PCE year over year: up 3.7%
Market expectation: up 3.6%

The figures were only 0.1 percentage point above expectations, but the direction mattered.

The market had expected further disinflation, while the actual reading remained at 3.7%, unchanged from June.

This was not a renewed inflation spike, but it reduced confidence that inflation is moving smoothly toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Core PCE was more stable.

Core PCE month over month: 0.2%
Core PCE year over year: 3.3%
Market expectation: broadly in line

Because the core measure matched expectations, the market found some relief.

That helped Nasdaq and semiconductor shares recover part of their early losses.

Even so, the stronger-than-expected headline PCE keeps the September FOMC meeting under scrutiny.

3. Reading CPI, PPI, and PCE together gives a clearer inflation picture

The July inflation data were released in the sequence of CPI, PPI, and PCE.

Viewed individually, the releases can be confusing, but taken together they explain the market reaction.

CPI: broadly in line with expectations and consistent with moderation
PPI: headline data were below expectations, but underlying pressure remained
PCE: the Fed’s preferred gauge came in above expectations

CPI and PPI initially supported the view that inflation was not accelerating.

The PCE reading, however, interrupted that narrative.

PCE is considered more comprehensive because it captures a broader range of consumer spending.

As a result, the data weakened confidence in the assumption that rate cuts are assured.

4. U.S. Q2 GDP: slower growth alongside persistent inflation

U.S. second-quarter GDP was also released alongside the PCE data.

U.S. Q2 GDP growth: 1.5% annualized
Same as the preliminary estimate
Q1 GDP growth: 2.1%

The figure was in line with expectations, so market reaction was limited.

However, the broader trend shows growth is slowing.

The key issue is that inflation remains elevated while growth is decelerating.

That combination is uncomfortable for markets.

It is not yet appropriate to label the environment stagflation, but concerns are clearly rising.

5. Semiconductor stocks face caution ahead of Nvidia earnings

The main after-hours event was Nvidia’s earnings release.

Nvidia sits at the center of the AI semiconductor rally, so its results are viewed as a test of the broader AI investment cycle.

Semiconductor shares were weak before the open.

Nvidia: weaker at the open, then partially recovered
AMD: weaker premarket, then rebounded
Intel: weaker
Micron: weaker
SK Hynix: weaker premarket, then recovered

Early losses reflected both the PCE surprise and caution ahead of Nvidia’s results.

However, semiconductors recovered much of the decline later in the session.

This suggests the market has not abandoned the AI semiconductor theme.

At the same time, the market is now demanding more than broad AI optimism.

Revenue growth, margins, data center demand, and continued capital spending by major technology firms have become the critical variables.

6. Software names weaken after Intuit guidance disappointment

Software stocks also came under pressure.

In particular, Intuit fell sharply after issuing weak guidance.

Intuit: down about 12% premarket
Microsoft: weaker premarket, then partially recovered
Palantir: weaker
Palo Alto Networks: weaker
ServiceNow: weaker

Intuit’s guidance weighed on the broader software group.

The result reinforced the view that software companies do not automatically benefit from the AI cycle.

Enterprise customers may still adopt AI tools, but they may also reduce existing software budgets or reallocate spending priorities.

Going forward, software performance is likely to depend less on “AI adoption” and more on whether AI meaningfully lifts revenue and earnings.

7. S&P 500 year-end outlook: upside remains, but room is limited

According to a Reuters survey of 46 Wall Street strategists, the median year-end target for the S&P 500 is around 7,900.

That implies roughly 3% additional upside from current levels.

In May, the year-end target was around 7,620.

The higher forecast reflects corporate earnings strength.

Estimated Q2 earnings growth for S&P 500 companies: about 33.5% year over year
Highest level since 2021
AI investment and strong megacap earnings continue to support the index

However, the upside appears limited.

Much of the AI optimism is already priced in.

By contrast, Bank of America offered a more cautious view.

BofA year-end S&P 500 target: around 7,100
Below current levels
Reason: heavy AI capex and rising debt burdens at large technology firms

The market is shifting its focus.

Earlier, large-scale AI spending was treated as a positive signal.

Now the key question is whether those investments translate into cash flow.

8. SoftBank’s OpenAI bet: equity markets welcome it, credit markets do not

SoftBank Chairman Masayoshi Son is again making a leveraged bet ahead of OpenAI’s planned listing.

The central issue is that SoftBank is raising debt to increase its OpenAI exposure.

Bond issuance to retail investors in Japan: about 1 trillion yen
Equivalent in Korean won: around 8 trillion won
Potential bond issuance to overseas institutional investors: up to $20 billion
Equivalent in Korean won: around 28 trillion won
SoftBank’s total OpenAI investment: around $65 billion by October

SoftBank is initially borrowing about $40 billion from banks to secure OpenAI equity, then plans to refinance that short-term borrowing through bond issuance.

It is also using OpenAI shares as collateral for additional funding.

In practical terms, the strategy is:

Acquire as much OpenAI equity as possible before the IPO, then fund the position later through bonds and loans.

OpenAI is reportedly pursuing a U.S. listing, with a potential IPO as early as next year.

Its valuation has been discussed at up to $1 trillion or more.

If OpenAI lists at a high valuation, SoftBank’s stake could rise sharply in value.

Equity markets responded positively, and SoftBank shares gained on the reports.

Credit markets reacted differently.

SoftBank credit rating: BB+ from S&P
One notch below investment grade
Existing 10-year dollar bonds: around 8.5% yield
SoftBank bond prices declined after the report
CDS premium rose: about 10.7 bp

Bond investors are focused less on OpenAI’s potential listing gains and more on whether interest payments can be sustained until then.

This highlights the difference between equity and credit markets.

Equities price future upside; credit markets focus on repayment capacity.

9. Bill Gates’ warning: AI-driven labor disruption is arriving faster than institutions are prepared for

Bill Gates published a long post on Gates Notes, totaling about 5,784 words.

That is nearly 12 pages in A4 format.

His central message was clear.

AI is changing jobs faster than society is prepared to absorb the impact.

The AI-exposed areas he highlighted include:

Customer support
Sales roles
Software development
Legal document review
Loan underwriting
Patient triage
Routine administrative work

He warned that entry-level and mid-level positions could be affected first.

If AI is combined with robotics, physical jobs in construction, logistics, and services may also be affected.

Gates also extended the risks beyond employment.

Fraud enabled by deepfakes
Lower barriers to cyberattacks
Weaker human relationships through chatbot dependence
Potential declines in children’s critical thinking and social skills

He did not call for stopping AI development.

He said AI could deliver major benefits in medicine, drug discovery, vaccines, and education.

His proposed responses were:

U.S.-China coordination on AI governance
International AI governance frameworks
Human-centered approaches in care and education
Taxes on AI and robotics to fund retraining and social safety nets

Given Gates’ reputation as a technology optimist, the warning carries weight.

It suggests AI has moved beyond a productivity tool and is beginning to reshape labor markets.

10. The Meta case: AI can boost output, but not automatically replace people

Meta-related reports show AI’s practical limitations.

Meta reportedly tested ways for 3 to 5 employees to handle work previously done by 10 to 20 people using AI.

Some teams also considered scenarios involving cuts of up to 60% in headcount.

The results were more complex than expected.

Code output after AI adoption: about 220% higher
Actionable improvements: about 36% higher
Technical and security incidents: about 40% higher
Time needed to resolve issues: about 70% higher

AI generated more code, but not all of it was usable.

In practice, employees spent more time reviewing and correcting AI output.

This case is important.

AI can increase output, but it does not automatically solve quality-control or security risks.

For companies, attempts to reduce labor costs may increase operational risk.

AI-related job disruption is likely, but it may not take the form of instant, across-the-board replacement.

Routine tasks are likely to decline first, followed by a shift toward roles that manage AI systems.

11. U.S.-China AI rivalry: Egypt becomes the first major battleground

AI rivalry is no longer confined to the U.S. and China.

Africa and the Middle East are becoming the next front, with Egypt emerging as the first symbolic battleground.

Huawei has proposed supplying the Egyptian government with AI chips and training data centers.

The strategy is to package Chinese AI chips, models, and data centers to capture the African market.

The United States is responding.

The U.S. State Department is promoting a consortium involving Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft.

Egypt matters not only for commercial reasons but also for strategic positioning.

A geopolitical bridge between Africa and the Middle East
A potential entry point for Chinese AI ecosystems
Expansion opportunities in government, education, and healthcare AI projects
A starting point for competition over data center and semiconductor supply-chain standards

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Egypt for a summit.

As the first visit in 10 years, it appears linked not only to diplomacy but also to AI infrastructure contracts.

This issue is also relevant for Korean companies.

If the U.S.-style AI ecosystem expands, opportunities may increase for Korean suppliers in HBM, server memory, and semiconductor equipment tied to Nvidia and AMD.

If the Chinese ecosystem expands instead, Huawei-centered supply chains could strengthen, increasing competitive pressure on Korean semiconductor firms.

12. Oil, dollar, gold, and bitcoin: caution across risk assets

Crude oil declined.

WTI: around $80.6
Brent: around $86.61
Intraday decline of more than 2%, later partially recovered

Reports that Iran reached an agreement related to transit through the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns about shipping disruptions.

That reduced supply-risk premiums and pressured oil prices lower.

The U.S. dollar index rose.

Dollar index: around 99.05
Gain: about 0.2%

Stronger-than-expected PCE data reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts and supported the dollar.

Gold and bitcoin weakened.

Gold futures: weaker
Bitcoin: down from about $78,000
VIX: slightly higher

Risk assets showed a cautious tone across markets.

Even so, the partial recovery in semiconductor stocks suggests the market is not in a full risk-off shift.

13. The core points that are often underemphasized

First, the difference between equity and credit market reactions matters.

In SoftBank’s case, equities responded positively to the OpenAI listing story.

Credit markets, however, focused on whether the company can service debt until that value is realized.

When assessing AI investment enthusiasm, stock prices alone can hide risk.

Bond prices, CDS spreads, and interest burden need to be considered together.

Second, the criteria for evaluating AI investment are changing.

In the past, markets rewarded companies for building data centers, buying GPUs, and increasing capital expenditure.

Now they are asking whether those investments translate into revenue, earnings, and cash flow.

The view that the S&P 500 has limited room to rise is consistent with that shift.

Third, the combination of PCE and GDP is important.

Inflation remains elevated while growth is slowing.

That combination leaves the Fed with fewer policy options.

Cutting rates risks reigniting inflation; holding rates high risks worsening the growth slowdown.

The market is beginning to price in reduced policy flexibility.

Fourth, AI competition is increasingly a semiconductor supply-chain contest.

The U.S.-China competition in Egypt is not merely about data center contracts.

It is about which country’s AI chips, cloud platforms, and software standards will become dominant.

Over time, these decisions could reshape the global AI ecosystem for the next decade.

Fifth, AI is unlikely to replace everyone immediately, but it is already changing job structure.

As the Meta case suggests, AI can increase output while also creating quality and security risks.

Companies are therefore likely to reorganize around people who can supervise and validate AI systems, not simply reduce headcount.

Future labor-market advantages will depend not only on AI usage skills, but also on the ability to verify AI output and take responsibility for it.

< Summary >

The July PCE price index rose 3.7% year over year, above expectations, adding pressure to the case for Fed rate cuts.

U.S. Q2 GDP held at 1.5%, confirming slower growth and increasing concern about the combination of high inflation and weaker expansion.

The S&P 500 still has some room to advance on strong earnings, but the median Wall Street year-end target suggests only about 3% upside.

SoftBank is pursuing aggressive AI exposure through large bond issuance and borrowing ahead of OpenAI’s planned listing.

Bill Gates warned that AI may hit entry-level and mid-level jobs first and that retraining and social safety nets are needed.

The United States and China are competing over AI infrastructure in Egypt, a development with implications for Korean semiconductor supply chains.

The market’s central question is no longer AI optimism alone, but whether AI investment can be proven through earnings and cash flow.

[Related Articles…]

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– S&P500 상승 끝물?ㅣ손정의, 오픈AI에 또 ‘빚 베팅’ㅣ빌 게이츠 “AI 일자리 충격, 아무도 준비 안 됐다”ㅣ美·中, 이집트서 AI 패권전ㅣ홍혜진의 뉴욕브리핑

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