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● **US-Korea Trade Deal: Next Week?**

Analysis of Easing Tariff War Movements and Key Contents of the US-Korea Trade Consultation

1. Development of Tariff War and Signals of Easing

In a situation where the trade war between the United States and China, and the tariff war between the United States and other countries were ongoing,
Recently, the fear of a tariff war has peaked and signs of easing are emerging.
A time when several countries, including South Korea, are reviewing their strategies to reduce the economic burden.
On the US side, a meeting with the character of ‘consultation’ to coordinate mutual opinions rather than trade negotiations is taking place.

2. Key Contents of the US-Korea 2+2 Trade Consultation

High-level talks between the US and South Korea are underway, with representatives from both sides engaging in conversations while maintaining smiles.
The US side positively evaluates South Korea’s best option and expresses expectations for the conclusion of a trade agreement in the future.
The meeting is evaluated as a reconnaissance rather than a negotiation, that is, a place to confirm the direction of future cooperation.

3. US Demands and the Direction of US-Korea Trade Negotiations

The United States puts forward demands such as resolving the trade surplus between the US and South Korea, expanding imports from the US, and increasing energy and defense costs.
Major demands include expanding purchases of US LNG, increasing defense costs, and building joint warships.
This is also linked to the weakening of production capacity in the United States, and the United States aims to become a net energy exporter.

4. Controversy over Non-Tariff Barriers and Trade Deficit Resolution

The United States raises issues with the non-tariff barriers introduced by South Korea, pointing out protectionist elements such as agriculture and technical standards.
In particular, it argued for unfairness by mentioning cases where the US tariff rate was excessively higher than the South Korean tariff rate.
On the other hand, South Korea is already under complex economic pressure due to various factors such as tariffs, subsidies, and exchange rate manipulation.

5. Expectations and Concerns – Economic Impact and Future Prospects

If tariffs are eased and a trade agreement is concluded, South Korea is expected to become the first tariff-exempt country, strengthening its export competitiveness.
At the same time, there are concerns that excessive acceptance of US demands could lead to a contraction of the domestic economy and a decline in competitiveness in the industrial sector.
In particular, attention is focused on how the demand for increased investment in the United States will actually affect the economy in major industrial sectors such as the shipbuilding industry.

Summary

From the perspective of an economic forecasting expert, the content is a situation where the US-China trade war and tariff war are reaching their peak and showing signs of easing.
At the US-Korea 2+2 trade consultation, the US side presented several demands such as resolving the trade surplus with the US and increasing LNG and defense costs.
This is linked to important issues across the economy, such as tariff and non-tariff barriers and trade deficit resolution.
Along with positive opportunities such as tariff exemption and joint warship construction, there are also concerns such as contraction of the domestic economy if US demands are accepted.
This analysis focuses on key keywords related to the global economy, trade war, tariff war, economic outlook, and trade agreement.

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– 베센트, “빠르면 다음주 협상 타결될 것” 한미 통상협의가 가져올 기대와 위협 [즉시분석]