● Halo Trade Surge, Circle Revenue Explosion, AI Power Shock, Gold Hoarding, Subprime Auto Crunch
Circle Revenue Surges +77%; Capital Shifts via the “Halo Trade”… Six Market-Critical Developments
U.S. equities are shifting away from a blanket “AI rallies everything” regime. The market is increasingly distinguishing between industries vulnerable to AI displacement and those insulated by physical constraints.
First, why the “Halo Trade” pressures software while supporting heavy-asset industries.
Second, why Circle’s results resemble a USD–Treasury yield engine rather than a typical “crypto stock.”
Third, what tends to occur when Bitcoin approaches its mining cost band.
Fourth, how Trump’s view that Big Tech should fund grid expansion could affect AI capex and inflation dynamics.
Fifth, why China has accumulated gold for 15 consecutive months and what it implies for gold’s structural downside.
Sixth, what record U.S. subprime auto loan delinquencies signal for consumption.
1) [Market Briefing] All Major U.S. Indices Higher, but Internal Dispersion Widens
The Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell opened higher. Beneath the headline strength, sector performance increasingly reflects whether AI can disrupt a business model versus whether the industry is protected by physical or regulatory barriers.
1-1. Semiconductors/Megacap Tech: Positioned Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia’s earnings were scheduled after the close, with the stock trading above the $180 level. Focus is shifting from the reported quarter to forward drivers (e.g., roadmap signals, supply/demand tone, and conference catalysts such as GTC).
1-2. Crypto-Linked Equities: Ripple Effects from Circle’s Earnings
Circle strength coincided with moves in platform names such as Coinbase. The key driver was less the spot price of crypto and more whether stablecoins are consolidating into core financial infrastructure.
2) [Core Theme] Wall Street’s “Halo Trade” = Capital Reallocation Driven by AI Displacement Risk
A growing framework is emerging: valuation premia increasingly depend on whether AI can structurally replace a firm’s economic role.
2-1. Why Software Is Under Pressure: Perceived Erosion of “Code Moats”
The software complex has experienced sharp moves over a short period, with certain names reacting primarily to narratives that AI can replace existing code and workflows. The repricing reflects business-model durability rather than near-term earnings.
2-2. Why Heavy Assets Are Benefiting: AI Cannot Rapidly Replicate Physical Capacity
AI cannot instantly create aircraft, runways, maintenance infrastructure, copper supply, grid capacity, or generation assets. Industries requiring substantial physical capex can function as structural defensives.
Illustrative dispersion: “travel platforms vs airlines.” If AI agents bypass booking intermediaries, platform bargaining power may weaken, while physical transport capacity remains difficult to substitute.
2-3. Implication of Goldman’s “Anti-AI Index”
Packaging an index that removes AI exposure suggests institutional investors are formalizing “AI-disruption-resistant” allocations. This indicates a potential shift in asset-allocation framing rather than a transient theme.
3) [Earnings] Circle Revenue +76.9% YoY: Closer to a USD–Treasury Yield Model than a “Crypto Company”
Circle’s pre-market rally followed strong results.
3-1. Key Figures
Revenue: $770 million (+76.9% YoY), above consensus.
EPS: $0.43 vs consensus $0.27.
USDC in circulation: $75.3 billion at year-end 2025, +72% YoY.
3-2. Core Driver: Reserve Income Dominates the Revenue Mix
Stablecoin issuers must hold dollar-like reserves against circulating supply. Circle invests reserves primarily in short-dated U.S. Treasuries and similar instruments to generate interest income.
This resembles a balance-sheet-driven yield model where scale increases Treasury-linked income, rather than a transaction-fee-driven business. Stablecoin adoption should therefore be assessed as a new USD liquidity distribution layer, not solely as a crypto beta.
3-3. Investment Considerations: Rate Sensitivity and Regulation
Circle’s earnings power is directly linked to the level of short-term rates. Regulatory trajectories that support institutional adoption could reinforce scale advantages. Conversely, rate moves can materially change cash-generation capacity.
4) [Crypto/Macro] Bitcoin Near the “Mining Cost Band”: Miner Capitulation Risk and Bottoming Debates Often Co-Occur
When Bitcoin trades into commonly referenced mining-cost bands, recurring market dynamics tend to emerge.
4-1. Why Cost Proximity Matters
Below the upper bound (all-in production cost): profitability deteriorates.
Below the lower bound (power-cost-centric): inefficient miners exit more rapidly.
Typical sequence: high-cost regions, older rigs, and highly levered miners face stress first; liquidity needs can trigger coin sales, increasing short-term volatility.
4-2. Concurrent “Long-Term Bottom” Narratives
Historically, deep breaches below cost bands have sometimes coincided with cycle lows. However, this zone can also mark the start of further undershooting. Emphasis typically shifts from directional conviction to risk control.
5) [Policy/Power] Trump: “Big Tech Should Pay for Grid Expansion” Could Reprice AI Capex and Inflation Pathways
Power availability is increasingly viewed as a binding constraint for AI scaling, alongside chips.
5-1. Policy Signal: Avoid Passing Data-Center Costs to Local Ratepayers
If data centers drive higher local electricity bills, political resistance increases. Policy pressure may favor frameworks where corporates fund grid upgrades or add dedicated generation.
5-2. Market Read-Through: Higher and Broader Big Tech Capex
If power infrastructure is increasingly borne by hyperscalers, AI investment expands beyond servers and GPUs into energy procurement and infrastructure buildout. This can advantage the largest balance sheets, raising barriers for smaller entrants and potentially amplifying industry concentration. The dynamic may influence long-run volatility and portfolio allocation.
6) [Commodities/Geopolitics] China’s Gold Holdings at Record Levels; 15 Consecutive Months of Purchases
Both China’s gold holdings and the pace of accumulation remain elevated, indicating strategy-driven demand that is less sensitive to short-term price levels.
6-1. Rationale: Reduced USD Dependence and Preference for Tangible Safe Assets
As U.S.–China tensions become more structural, incentives increase to diversify away from USD assets, including U.S. Treasuries. Gold is a primary tangible reserve asset and is comparatively resilient to sanctions and settlement constraints.
6-2. Implication for Gold Price Structure
Consistent central bank buying during drawdowns tends to strengthen the downside floor over time. This is more relevant for strategic positioning than for near-term trading catalysts.
7) [Real-Economy Warning] U.S. Subprime Auto Loans: 60+ Day Delinquencies at an All-Time High
This development is more directly linked to household stress and consumption than to market technicals.
7-1. Why Auto Delinquencies Matter
For lower-income households, a car functions as essential infrastructure. Record delinquencies indicate pressure on disposable income and household liquidity.
7-2. Transmission Channels
Higher delinquencies → more repossessions → increased used-car supply → volatility in prices and residual values → stress across related credit products. If sustained, this can contribute to weaker consumption, changes in credit spreads, and renewed recession-probability debates, with implications for inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve policy path.
[Key Takeaways] Five Under-Discussed Points
Point 1) The “Halo Trade” Signals a Shift in the Valuation Framework
If the market prices businesses primarily on “AI replaceability,” volatility may become more narrative-driven than earnings-driven.
Point 2) Circle May Be Repriced as a USD Liquidity Layer Rather Than Crypto Beta
As USDC scales, Circle increasingly resembles an interest-income-plus-scale model. This differs materially from typical Bitcoin-linked equity exposure.
Point 3) Power Policy Can Reshape Industry Structure More Than Margins
If grid and generation costs shift toward hyperscalers, AI competition becomes capital- and infrastructure-intensive, potentially concentrating winners.
Point 4) China’s Gold Buying Reflects Geopolitical Insurance, Not Tactical Price Views
Gold functions as hedging inventory against sanctions, settlement disruption, and currency conflict, supporting persistent buying through pullbacks.
Point 5) Subprime Auto Credit Is a Leading Indicator for the Bottom of Consumption
Equity markets can remain resilient while lower-end consumers deteriorate; when the gap widens, macro volatility risk can rise.
SEO-Adjacent Keyword Flow (Integrated Contextually)
These themes connect directly to U.S. equities, inflation, rates, USD strength, and recession risk. The capital-rotation chain “AI → power → real assets” is central to interpreting cross-asset flows.
< Summary >
Circle’s +77% revenue growth reinforced a stablecoin reserve-income model and contributed to momentum across crypto-linked equities.
The “Halo Trade” reflects rotation away from AI-disruptable software toward real-asset and infrastructure exposures that AI cannot readily replicate.
Bitcoin’s proximity to mining-cost bands raises near-term miner capitulation and undershoot risk alongside long-term bottoming narratives.
Trump’s grid-cost stance could reframe AI spending as an energy-infrastructure capex competition, potentially reinforcing megacap concentration.
China’s 15-month streak of gold purchases accelerates reserve diversification and strengthens gold’s structural downside support.
Record subprime auto loan delinquencies signal stress in lower-end consumers, increasing downside risk to growth and policy expectations.
[Related Articles…]
- How Stablecoin Regulatory Shifts Affect Financial Markets
- What China’s Expanded Gold Purchases Signal for Global Asset Allocation
*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]
– 서클 매출 전년비 77% 상승, 주가 급등ㅣ中 사상 최대 금 보유, 8개월 연속 증가세ㅣ오펜하이버 “오클로 주가 저점 도달”ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕
